FLO Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Jason Simpson in Huntsville said this could be a top 5 cold wave for the SE. And dry prob. What another waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 And dry prob. What another waste. Why do you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 00z Euro ensemble same time period and you wonder why we're seeing a textbook Miller A on this run? Don't hug models, whether you're a pessimist or an optimist, you should try to sniff out the bigger picture. I'm willing to bet people who were thinking "NO snow outside of the mountains for the rest of the winter" are excited about the 12z GFS now. Jon you are quickly becoming one of the better posters here. Seriously keep posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Jon you are quickly becoming one of the better posters here. Seriously keep posting. Agreed burger! Appreciate you too my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 14 out of 50 of the euro ensembles show a snow of greater than 3" at HKY through 240. 10 out of 50 for Gastonia and Charlotte. 9 out of 50 for Raleigh. Almost all of them have accumulating snow. Impressive deal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 And dry prob. What another waste. Dry 2 days? Dry 2 weeks? Dry sustained 4 week cold period? Dry remainder of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 14 out of 50 of the euro ensembles show a snow of greater than 3" at HKY through 240. 10 out of 50 for Gastonia and Charlotte. 9 out of 50 for Raleigh. Almost all of them have accumulating snow. Impressive deal there. Very impressive. With the overall pattern in the LR it's hard to argue against widespread snow in NC at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Agreed burger! Appreciate you too my friend. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Agreed burger! Appreciate you too my friend. Ditto! Burger and Jon, you have become two of our most valued posters. You have both been great contributors this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 14 out of 50 of the euro ensembles show a snow of greater than 3" at HKY through 240. 10 out of 50 for Gastonia and Charlotte. 9 out of 50 for Raleigh. Almost all of them have accumulating snow. Impressive deal there.what about asheville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 what about asheville 17ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Jon you are quickly becoming one of the better posters here. Seriously keep posting. Thanks! I'm trying. Once I actually have to start studying boring pharmacology and stop model watching (first exam Tuesday) I'll have to cut back a bit, but I'm going to try and keep up, I need my hobby to stay sane. Unfortunately can't stick around for 00z Euro PBP I'll have to read yours in the morning when I wake up! Agreed burger! Appreciate you too my friend. Ditto! Burger and Jon, you have become two of our most valued posters. You have both been great contributors this year. Thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I agree with the above. I really appreciate the input from Jon, Burger, Franklin, and others. We've got a lot of great contributors in this forum, and it's through their efforts that we get insight into data that's not publicly available, while learning a little something along the way. Hats off, fellas. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Man, the control run on the Euro NAO takes it down to -3 readings toward the end of the month. Not sure WB wants me to post their images or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 If the NAO gets below -2 with that kind of ridging out west, Dallas to Colombia and points north are probably going to have a good time at some point. Maybe even further South than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Personally, the upcoming pattern looks more cold and dry-ish to me instead of cold and wintry. No -NAO is still going to be a problem. If the flow relaxes along the east coast allowing a storm to come out of the southern plains, you likely lose the cold air and areas to our northwest get hit...if the flow doesn't relax, it stays cold and dry-ish...let's see what happens though. Looking at the GFS and Euro Ensembles, my thoughts remain the same. Having a hard time seeing how we marry storm with cold in this -EPO/+PNA pattern. -AO with stronger ridging working up over the pole on the Euro Ens, but NAO remains neutral to positive on both ensembles. Getting a negative NAO setup would change things, but it's not showing up in the ensemble means. A Manitoba Mauler type storm (strong clipper) looks like our best shot overall. Step one is getting some cold air in here though, which has been a big struggle the last 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Wow at 0z GFS day 3/4, strong piece of energy diving down. See if it can produce snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Wow at 0z GFS day 3/4, strong piece of energy diving down. See if it can produce snow. Yep, question will be SFC temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I'm watching for some protrusions of moisture out of the gulf into Ala and Ga instead of dry dry. I've heard dry for 10 days recently and had 4 rains for nearly 3 1/2 inches, lol. I also heard torch winter, so I think hunches are helpful, and I've got a hunch about what'll be going one underneath while it is "dry". I know the only torch I've seen was 60 something back in mid Dec. and I've had more rain this winter, in big gulps, than I did in the summer when the rest of you were begging for it to stop I like this winter! A lot. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Yep, question will be SFC temps.With -5 to -12 at 850 and cold air already sort of in place, I really have trouble believing that we'll have any significant BL problems if there's enough precip for the storm to be halfway interesting. Also, taken per batum, the GFS has temps AOB freezing at the surface for this storm. That's with this weak, suppressed scenario. If it ends up any stronger, it has a vast pool of cold air to tap into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The high at hour 186 coming down is a lot weaker than prior runs. Not what I want to see. Also, western ridge breaking down more quickly. Now it is much warmer looking. Ugly if you like cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I will bet the ensembles look different.......again. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The GFS OP has done this several times the past few weeks, usually the 0z run. It's literally 40 degrees warmer this run in many places East of the Rockies than it was at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I will bet the ensembles look different.......again. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk From hour 240-384, 850's stay above +4 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Both the Euro and GFS Ensembles begin to relax the cold around day 12. 00z GFS does this around day 10, so not far off...all of that is way out there though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Instead of very cold with wintry threats, the 0Z GFS giveth many highs in the 60's and 70's 1/28-31! This runs shows how vulnerable the pattern is to changing quickly though I'm quite confident it is way too warm. We'll see. I must admit it would be pretty funny if it occurred after all of the historic cold forecast data. At least brick wouldn't have cold and dry lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Instead of very cold with wintry threats, the 0Z GFS giveth many highs in the 60's and 70's 1/28-31! This runs shows how vulnerable the pattern is to changing quickly though I'm quite confident it is way too warm. We'll see. I must admit it would be pretty funny if it occurred after all of the historic cold forecast data. At least brick wouldn't have cold and dry lol. I just can't believe any run that has a 40-50 degree temperature change than the runs over the past few days before hand. The GFS did this a couple weeks ago too, according to that run on a Thursday night, we should be torching next week. It also did a big flip leading into the mega cold one night, showing temps 30-40 degrees warmer than it had been showing, but the cold turned out to be the right call, as it went back to it quickly. That said, it technically could play out just like the GFS just showed. It just seems unlikely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Saw some discussion in here and in the banter thread about the OPI The value for the OPI at the end of October was +1.6. The official AO forecast from the OPI group for Dec-Feb ("the winter quarter") was "near +1.0 or above" I just averaged the daily AO values for Dec 1 - Jan 17. That value came out to +0.74. So, as of Jan 17, the OPI AO forecast of "near +1.0 or above" is off, but not way off. Having said that, the AO is forecast on the Euro and GFS Ensembles to be negative for at least the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Not to the extreme of course, but the 0Z GEFS pretty much back up the idea that the 11-15 day period would not be exciting at all lol. However, even the GEFS has blown this badly in recent days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 To my untrained eye, the euro at 192, looks very cold to me and has the tall ridge out west, don't know about storms. I'm trying to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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