franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Thru the next 7 days the gfs is a parade of northern stream nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 12Z GFS 192 hour map implies a further west position of upper trough perhaps. Could be good for SE wintry later? Let's see. It is as stupid cold as it gets coming down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 12Z GFS 192 hour map implies a further west position of upper trough perhaps. Could be good for SE wintry later? Let's see. Looks a good storm incoming @216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Split flow showing up on the GFS now within truncation. Finally some real southern stream action in the mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The story is Dry and Cold through the "real" GFS run. Anything past 7 days is imaginary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The day 10 storm showing up on the 12z gfs looks like fun but a pipe dream at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 LR GFS basically says it hopes the SE likes a mixed bag of everything wintery. Now that is a fantasy storm from about 240-276. Looks to reload as well in the far off range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The day 10 storm showing up on the 12z gfs looks like fun but a pipe dream at this point. Can you elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Can you elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Can you elaborate? Pipe dream= the model is smoking pot and is in fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 LR GFS basically says it hopes the SE likes a mixed bag of everything wintery. Now that is a fantasy storm from about 240-276. Looks to reload as well in the far off range. You might be busy with the play-by-plays the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Can you elaborate? A long duration event for our area with all the frozen types. Pipe dream= the model is smoking pot and is in fantasy land This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Can you elaborate? For a good example look at a GFS run which has a storm exiting off the coast at 189...once it hits truncation mysteriously it will explode with moisture all over us (sounds dirty) at hour 192. Anything past that is just guess work and shouldn't be taken at face value. However it typically does give a good indication of overall flow and what's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Very long range of course but the GFS looks really cold as in some -10F cold showing up in NC for at least 1 night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Split flow showing up on the GFS now within truncation. Finally some real southern stream action in the mix? Yes and a cutoff shows up day 6/7 off the coast of CA that does eject right at truncation, this does argue for a big storm down the road for someone, it's hard to imagine this staying far enough south for us though, unless it turns into a week overrunning low, but with all the NS stream energy it's going to be hard not to phase and end up tracking to our west or a miller B. I imagine the NE is salivating over this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 For a good example look at a GFS run which has a storm exiting off the coast at 189...once it hits truncation mysteriously it will explode with moisture all over us (sounds dirty) at hour 192. Anything past that is just guess work and shouldn't be taken at face value. However it typically does give a good indication of overall flow and what's possible. Haha! Good one, Burger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I will say this with the PNA ridge toppling over into central Canada that does seem to want to trap the PV, could provide us pseudo-blocking, not sure if would qualify as a -NAO, but it could do the trick, if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I want to throw this out to everyone just to get some opinions... Overnight I threw the suggestion out there that I would start an Arctic Attack II Thread and I think I will go ahead and start that before I leave out for the evening. My question to everyone...Should snow discussion during that timeframe also be added to the discussion or do you guys prefer to keep it strictly temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I want to throw this out to everyone just to get some opinions... Overnight I threw the suggestion out there that I would start an Arctic Attack II Thread and I think I will go ahead and start that before I leave out for the evening. My question to everyone...Should snow discussion during that timeframe also be added to the discussion or do you guys prefer to keep it strictly temps? Ugh. This could get tricky. I'm with you about the thread. However, unlike last time, it looks like we will have legit winter weather threats during this time period. I think those threats will be discussed in this Pattern thread until we are within about 4-5 days. Then we are going to have a Pattern thread, Storm thread, Cold thread, Obs thread. I'm not sure what will be the best thing to do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Cmc has a bomb at day 5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I want to throw this out to everyone just to get some opinions... Overnight I threw the suggestion out there that I would start an Arctic Attack II Thread and I think I will go ahead and start that before I leave out for the evening. My question to everyone...Should snow discussion during that timeframe also be added to the discussion or do you guys prefer to keep it strictly temps? My vote is for temp.'s only like last time. It is too early for any particular storm threat anyway. Besides, assuming the extreme cold materializes again, there won't be a shortage of posts about it as it would affect nearly everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 My vote is for temp.'s only like last time. It is too early for any particular storm threat anyway. Besides, assuming the extreme cold materializes again, there won't be a shortage of posts about it as it would affect nearly everyone. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I want to throw this out to everyone just to get some opinions... Overnight I threw the suggestion out there that I would start an Arctic Attack II Thread and I think I will go ahead and start that before I leave out for the evening. My question to everyone...Should snow discussion during that timeframe also be added to the discussion or do you guys prefer to keep it strictly temps? I think we should talk about storms especially because they are more possible this go around. Then if a particular storm starts to get focused on we create a thread for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Also most of us are excited about the coming cold because of what it can potentially produce (winter storms). I think last time we had a thread becasue there was nothing more to discuss. **Just my two cents.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Cmc has a bomb at day 5! We are listening. Pattern looks great going forward......but something by day 5?? Hiccup IMO Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Thanks for the input...I will start a new Arctic Attack Thread probably in the next hour or two...and we can keep storm specific info in the medium/long range on this thread for now until confidence becomes high enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Damn, that fantasy storm on the GFS is interesting. A plethora of precip types. Major snow, major IP, major ZR, etc. The GGEM does look a bit interesting for what might be a rain-to-snow situation for some on day 5, though it seems to be out on its own with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 We are listening. Pattern looks great going forward......but something by day 5?? Hiccup IMO Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk All models have this storm, the CMC just over-deepens as always. Will see if Euro comes in with something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z GFS sure does look cold. Saw one day with a high of 16 and a low of -3. I know we shouldn't look at specifics but it seems that it warms up just enough to rain with the storms shown before turning even colder afterwards. Am I missing something? I guess with this type of pattern our odds of hitting are increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Our father, who art in heaven, please bring me a Canadian blizzard on Tuesday 1/21/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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