donsutherland1
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About donsutherland1
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I'm happy to learn the driver is ok.
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Shelf cloud just before the thunderstorm impacted Larchmont.
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Mammatus clouds ahead of an approaching thunderstorm a short time ago.
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I drove to through this cell on reaching I-87 from near Mahwah. There was vivid lightning and an area of pea-sized hail.
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A few locations could still see a shower or thundershower this evening. Most of the region will likely be dry. Rainfall totals through 4 pm include: Bridgeport: 0.97" (old record: 0.95", 1954) Hartford: 3.54" (old record: 3.18", 1954) ***7th Highest August Daily Amount*** Islip: 1.89" (old record: 1.36", 1987) New York City-Central Park: 1.93" New York City-JFK Airport: 2.75" (old record: 1.90", 1948) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.22" Newark: 2.27" (old record: 1.60", 1885) Westfield: 1.69" Westhampton: 1.63" (old record: 1.41", 1961) Worcester: 1.52" (tied record set in 1996) No exceptional heat is likely through the first week of August. However, it will turn warmer during the second half of the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.02°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -10.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.154 today.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
donsutherland1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The ongoing super El Niño is approaching historic proportions in ENSO Region 1+2. The anomaly for the week centered around July 30 was +4.1°C. The last time the anomaly was at least as high was the week centered around July 6, 1983 (+4.2°C) as the 1982-83 super El Niño was nearing an end. The record is +4.5°C for the week centered around June 29, 1983. -
Through 9 am, JFK Airport has received 2.05" of rain. That breaks the old record of 1.90" from 1948.
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Newark has now received 1.67" of rain today. That breaks the August 3 daily record of 1.60" from 1885. As was the case with the most recent large rain event, the White Plains precipitation gauge is down. Although the data shows 0.04" on July 29 and 0.02" on July 30, those figures understate the actual figures, as the gauge was down for large stretches of rain.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Denver has quietly reached and then surpassed 40 90° or above days. What was once an uncommon event has now become routine in the warming climate. Through August 2, 2026, Denver has had 41 such days. During 1872-1999, Denver saw 40 or more such days about once every 7.5 years. Since 2000, such years have occurred once every 1.2 years. Eleven of the last 12 years have seen 40 or more such days. -
A moderate to significant rainfall is likely tomorrow into Tuesday. Much of the New York City area will likely see 0.50"-1.50" of rain. An area of 2.00"-3.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible, especially north and west of New York City. No exceptional heat is likely through the first week of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -7.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.297 today.
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August 2026 calendar with record highs and record lows for Central Park.
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August has begun on a quiet but warm note. No exceptional heat or severe storms were present to mark the start of the month. Tomorrow will be another quiet day with readings reaching the lower 80s. Afterward, a moderate to potentially locally significant rainfall is likely Monday into Tuesday. No exceptional heat is likely through the first week of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -21.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.423 today.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
The map is dated. Nevertheless, winter fire activity in South America has so far been largely suppressed by a wetter to much wetter than normal start to winter. The U.S. has seen a fairly sizable pickup in fire activity in late July. -
The first half of June+first half of July would have ranked as the 10th warmest such period. The second half of June + second half of July would rank as the 51st coolest such period (mean temperature: 74.0°; 2009 with a mean temperature of 68.0° is the coolest such period).
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Heat domes aren't new. But the warming background climate has made even relatively ordinary heat domes much hotter than they were decades ago. Regional patterns coupled with a wetter climate has likely contributed to the recent absence of long-duration heatwaves in parts of the Northeast.
