phil882 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Very interested to see what the 12z ECMWF has... I am flying back to Albany on Thursday/Friday from California... needless to say I think I'll want to rebook my flight for earlier if things continue to look like what the 00z run had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 A lot of guidance coming in flatter this morning per posts? Edit...just looked at ukmet and it's flatter at 72 hours but I wonder if like the euro it's digging for a stronger d4 solution? Not the trends we wanted in NNE...though I'm sure that really upsets a lot of you I-95ers haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not the trends we wanted in NNE...though I'm sure that really upsets a lot of you I-95ers haha. No, And we even lost the over running snows to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not the trends we wanted in NNE...though I'm sure that really upsets a lot of you I-95ers haha. The euro dumped gobs of snow on me. I'd prefer a more amped solution but I want a lot of overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Doesn't really change that closer to home the synoptic setup was similar. This one looks like a stronger high to the north if we're getting picky and who knows if this one has a secondary that ends up wraaping up more than guidance shows (minus the Euro). disagree. this system looks colder, digs more, and has better ridging in the west with a more favorable atlantic for the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The signal's been out there for a long while in the runs, but now the American teleconnectors are being douchy about it, too. The PNA spike has backed off in the GFS ensemble member mean the last two nightly computations, which doesn't lend too well as cross-guidance support. It is not absolutely necessary to have that cross support, but about half the time it is a red flag when you don't. I have a general rule of thumb that heights over Miami should not exceeed 582 dm, and the balanced geostrophic wind should not exceed 35kts, ...and here is the key, PRIOR to the amplification coming into the rough longitudes of the Mississippi Valley region. In this case, the Euro violates both rules of thumb. The reason this is a limitation has to do with mechanics and is complicated to explain. Let me just put it simply as, "shear." Or rather, if you can bear it, when the wind maximum core in the jet stream tries to enter a domain that is already highly compressed (big geopotential gradient with already high-ish wind) then the wind max associated with the S/W is no longer as differentiating on the flow. If it is not differentiating, this lowers jet responses (inflow of WAA to feed cyclogenesis with latent heat ... etc). The way it works is called q-vector forcing, where q vectors relate to the amount of Upward Vertical Motion that is "forced". Less differentiation = less upward forcing = less UVM = weak WAA response = weak storm. To me that is a very simple chain of logic, but when I have tried to explain this rather fundamental principle to people ... it's like a scene out of a sitcom where the room goes silent for 6 seconds, then squabbling re-ensues where no one even acknowledges what was just said. I'm not sure, but for some reason, people have a tough time getting it... I only get a little frustrated by the lack of perceived comprehension, because the principle is clad and can be employed during deterministic/operational weather prediction, but people just slip right back into autopilot when they see a trough coming E. For those on the blogosphere, we then have to suffer a "blizzard" of TK and MN tweets... But I digress... anyway, seeing the GFS suite backing off the +PNA may just be related to why in this case ... both variables are being violated in order to get to the Euro's exotic solution. But, then again, we also notice that the GFS has maintained more progressive character to the flow, and a more sheared out system, so it is good within it's own processing. What it all boils down to is a bit of a model battle. The Euro can overcome the Miami heights and wind rule of thumb, by dumping and absolute monstrosity into the flow (so in order to establish the greater differentials), but that would be the rarefied solution -- because to do so approaches the upper bounds of Terra physical extremes, so inherently it is less likely to achieve those degrees of intensity. We'll just have to see if this week is one of those rarer times. Btw, no other guidance pulls that off, either. On the other hand, the Euro is now inside of D5, and that's really when the model is almost impossible to beat. Oy vay This 12z Euro run will be really interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 No, And we even lost the over running snows to bootThe Euro will save you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The Euro will save you And everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have a feeling the euro will revert back to a solution like 12z yesterday just long duration light- mod snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro has no choice, but to back down from its ridiculous 00z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 disagree. this system looks colder, digs more, and has better ridging in the west with a more favorable atlantic for the coastal plain Objection: relevance? Nitpicking analogs is for sad people. Get down to brass tacks and make me an early first guess map for snow accumulations in the northeast US this Thrusday into Friday, and be sure to have your color scheme based only on the photo in your signature. THANK YOU HOTMAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The indv 12z GFS Ensm are tasty. Enjoy http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro has no choice, but to back down from its ridiculous 00z solution. Hated seeing that run, Never good having it be the best case this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Objection: relevance? Nitpicking analogs is for sad people. Get down to brass tacks and make me an early first guess map for snow accumulations in the northeast US this Thrusday into Friday, and be sure to have your color scheme based only on the photo in your signature. THANK YOU HOTMAIL i'm nitpicking it because i think using analogs is silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro has no choice, but to back down from its ridiculous 00z solution. I agree. I hope its not a 4-8 cj of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The indv 12z GFS Ensm are tasty. Enjoy http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html more good hits than any run i've seen so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I agree. I hope its not a 4-8 cj of powder. As a point of reference the 12z GFS today was ~12" for you. Is that ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hated seeing that run, Never good having it be the best case this early I have a feeling there will be a rash of toaster baths in the next two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The indv 12z GFS Ensm are tasty. Enjoy http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Yup. While not blockbusters many are good storms and also damn cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 more good hits than any run i've seen so far Still some timing differences and a couple southerly outliers but all-in-all a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have a feeling the euro will revert back to a solution like 12z yesterday just long duration light- mod snows I think the EURO will still have like widespread 1" QPF...just won't be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hated seeing that run, Never good having it be the best case this early not that i can contribute much, but i'm not feeling this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have a feeling there will be a rash of toaster baths in the next two hours. GYX/BTV snowstorm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro has no choice, but to back down from its ridiculous 00z solution. hahaha..... oh man. It's like, remember the histrionics and melodrama prior to that February blizzard last year? That Euro solution would trump that drama with actual, factual required panic this time. Although, it seems modern times has a way of limiting the impact of these bigger winter storms. True - It almost gets difficult to imagine a 1978 scenario having the same impact of turning I-95 into an abandoned visage akin to an apocalyptic siege in this day and age, but who knows... But IMO, I do think that high wind and powdery bombs are not as society impacting as the 31.5F S++ thunder freaks that stall and last for 2.5 days -- that was 1978; we have not regionally experienced, objective (not subjectively) anything that really hearkens to that, other than brief encounters, since then. And there are knee-jerk responders that try to argue it, because for some reason, to even merely suggest otherwise is some kind of a violation upon their winter-sensibilities. But that's all bullcrap. One day, we will be tested again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What's the KMA have? Do a hand stand. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yup. While not blockbusters many are good storms and also damn cold! Much better look for us southern peeps on the 12z runs thus far. I'd toss the Op GGEM/Ukie and southerly outliers right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have a feeling there will be a rash of toaster baths in the next two hours. May be an epidemic for the board majority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Bob is the SNE version of dendrite, When he likes something, Its bad news up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Much better look for us southern peeps on the 12z runs thus far. I'd toss the Op GGEM/Ukie and southerly outliers right now.does anyone ever take the GGEM seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 KMA is tough to decipher even with the iPad rotation locked. But man I over kimchi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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