CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looking at the 54 hour NAM compared to its 06z run really opened my eyes to the variance possible with each operational solution. People are going to drive themselves crazy the next few days if they don't use the ensemble guidance to get a better idea as to what is going on. Any time I see the Euro jump like that, I think it may be having a burp run. Especially recently when it has been prone to it -- over the past few months. So I really would like to see it hold a similar solution at 12z before we even start talking about this storm going down that path. The only caveat being that the ensembles sometime tend to be too far southeast, but yeah even for today I think you need to weigh the ensembles a bit more than the ops. Today is almost a transition where the baton is handed off. We are at the point where the ensembles start to hold their hand out to hand the baton off to the deterministic models. Almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The only caveat being that the ensembles sometime tend to be too far southeast, but yeah even for today I think you need to weigh the ensembles a bit more than the ops. Today is almost a transition where the baton is handed off. We are at the point where the ensembles start to hold their hand out to hand the baton off to the deterministic models. Almost. I think we'll be there later tonight. I know the NAM is typically an awful model but I like to view its handling of the situation for high resolution/dynamic purposes. And if you have the WSI H5 graphics you can see many different things going on which aren't viewable on Ewall or NCEP maps. Anyway, watching the evolution of things between 72-78 hours is certainly exciting. The NAM is generally disorganized and looks nothing like the Euro from last night at the surface -- but check out the evolution at h5 and you realize that it really isn't too far off. Suddenly we have the NAM picking up on what the Euro showed suddenly last night, that the N stream shortwave will surge southeast into the base of the trough over the MS Valley and dig all the way into Mississippi and Alabama. Not one deterministic model was showing this yesterday. So at this point, while I think the OP Euro is an outlier, it certainly piques my interest to see the NCEP and some other models now picking up on that potential amplification as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think the track is finally a compromise of the GFS and EURO, strength is a difference of the two, which is still around 980mb at the Benchmark. Which would be the European Ensemble mean...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think we'll be there later tonight. I know the NAM is typically an awful model but I like to view its handling of the situation for high resolution/dynamic purposes. And if you have the WSI H5 graphics you can see many different things going on which aren't viewable on Ewall or NCEP maps. Anyway, watching the evolution of things between 72-78 hours is certainly exciting. The NAM is generally disorganized and looks nothing like the Euro from last night at the surface -- but check out the evolution at h5 and you realize that it really isn't too far off. Suddenly we have the NAM picking up on what the Euro showed suddenly last night, that the N stream shortwave will surge southeast into the base of the trough over the MS Valley and dig all the way into Mississippi and Alabama. Not one deterministic model was showing this yesterday. So at this point, while I think the OP Euro is an outlier, it certainly piques my interest to see the NCEP and some other models now picking up on that potential amplification as well. have to watch how that shortwave evolves though. key is how early it digs. everything eventually sharpens the trough. the euro just does it really early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think we'll be there later tonight. I know the NAM is typically an awful model but I like to view its handling of the situation for high resolution/dynamic purposes. And if you have the WSI H5 graphics you can see many different things going on which aren't viewable on Ewall or NCEP maps. Anyway, watching the evolution of things between 72-78 hours is certainly exciting. The NAM is generally disorganized and looks nothing like the Euro from last night at the surface -- but check out the evolution at h5 and you realize that it really isn't too far off. Suddenly we have the NAM picking up on what the Euro showed suddenly last night, that the N stream shortwave will surge southeast into the base of the trough over the MS Valley and dig all the way into Mississippi and Alabama. Not one deterministic model was showing this yesterday. So at this point, while I think the OP Euro is an outlier, it certainly piques my interest to see the NCEP and some other models now picking up on that potential amplification as well. Yeah the NAM isn't far off at all. Good observation. Lots of time left for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think we'll be there later tonight. I know the NAM is typically an awful model but I like to view its handling of the situation for high resolution/dynamic purposes. And if you have the WSI H5 graphics you can see many different things going on which aren't viewable on Ewall or NCEP maps. Anyway, watching the evolution of things between 72-78 hours is certainly exciting. The NAM is generally disorganized and looks nothing like the Euro from last night at the surface -- but check out the evolution at h5 and you realize that it really isn't too far off. Suddenly we have the NAM picking up on what the Euro showed suddenly last night, that the N stream shortwave will surge southeast into the base of the trough over the MS Valley and dig all the way into Mississippi and Alabama. Not one deterministic model was showing this yesterday. So at this point, while I think the OP Euro is an outlier, it certainly piques my interest to see the NCEP and some other models now picking up on that potential amplification as well. have to watch how that shortwave evolves though. key is how early it digs. everything eventually sharpens the trough. the euro just does it really early. Yeah in the end it will come down to timing and the amplification of that energy. The progressive nature of the pattern doesn't lend much confidence, but I suppose anything is possible when you have the PV involved to the north. With this energy still in a very sparse data region I think we're going to have trouble ironing out the details until we draw much closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Saturday morning may be a very very cold morning. MOS already has 3F for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 have to watch how that shortwave evolves though. key is how early it digs. everything eventually sharpens the trough. the euro just does it really early. Definitely. The Euro actually phases with a piece of energy from the northern stream around hr 96 which will depend upon the speed of the shortwave being slower due to its greater amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Saturday morning may be a very very cold morning. MOS already has 3F for BOS. Pretty impressive for day 5. Even -10s as far south as ash and ore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Some pretty high probs 70% for snow on Thursday and Thursday night already out in the P&C being this far out, I think depending on cloud cover up here, There should be a good chance at -30F over northern Maine with maybe even a -40F on weds night, Big Black River would be my spot for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Frank Nocera @Nocera51h 00z EC ensembles (51 members) have trended stronger w/potential coastal storm Thu-Fri. #MAwx pic.twitter.com/8TDZ555CaE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Some pretty high probs 70% for snow on Thursday and Thursday night already out in the P&C being this far out, I think depending on cloud cover up here, There should be a good chance at -30F over northern Maine with maybe even a -40F on weds night, Big Black River would be my spot for this Its very high confidence for this time range that snow will happen...obviously the details of amounts and duration are to be determined...but it's nice to have a strong model consensus on a system with plenty of cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Saturday morning may be a very very cold morning. MOS already has 3F for BOS. What will runners do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I want the navgem...then everyone should be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Its very high confidence for this time range that snow will happen...obviously the details of amounts and duration are to be determined...but it's nice to have a strong model consensus on a system with plenty of cold air available. Nothing has more promise to me than when temps stick in the teens and low twenties for an event. That's the good ish right thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Its very high confidence for this time range that snow will happen...obviously the details of amounts and duration are to be determined...but it's nice to have a strong model consensus on a system with plenty of cold air available. That cold is the gun powder for this systems as long as we can get it to come together in time, Worst case we get an over running lt/mod event, But so much potential to be much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Saturday morning may be a very very cold morning. MOS already has 3F for BOS.Last night my Wunderground app showed -17F. It has come off the ledge though. -5F now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Matt Noyes tweeted 4 feet per Euro run...what the Samhell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Last night my Wunderground app showed -17F. It has come off the ledge though. -5F now I wouldn't be shocked if it came in colder again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Matt Noyes tweeted 4 feet per Euro run...what the Samhell? Fooking twiiter and weenie mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What will runners do? Not run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Fooking twiiter and weenie mets. Hey it could happen with 30 to 1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Matt Noyes tweeted 4 feet per Euro run...what the Samhell? that included the Jan 7 piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not run? Not an option. We run on. Those types of mornings are brutal..as I'm sure there will be wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Matt Noyes tweeted 4 feet per Euro run...what the Samhell? http://ow.ly/i/49Q9J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 http://ow.ly/i/49Q9JI think he changed what he posted earlier. That version maxes out at 24 inches by Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 http://ow.ly/i/49Q9J He tweeted a pay site map (which I now subscribe to) and yes that clown map shows over 40" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Fooking twiiter and weenie mets. Perhaps if the AMS started taking away certifications that would make the TV guys stop and think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 http://ow.ly/i/49Q9JCool...70" in N NH. That might verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think his map also covers the 2nd storm as it was thru 132 if i recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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