Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At this point I'd ride a blend of the GGEM/GFS/ECMWF Ensm mean. See what 12z today brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At this point I'd ride a blend of the GGEM/GFS/ECMWF Ensm mean. See what 12z today brings. You thinking colder then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 LOL, not quite. 98-2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You thinking colder then.Arctic plunge incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You thinking colder then. Not necessarily. I just don't buy the Op Euro track just yet. I said it the other day, sometimes the Op Euro can sniff out these dynamic systems before the Ensm but typically you lean towards the Ensm in the mid-range. I think by 00z tonight we should have an idea if the Op Euro is out to lunch or on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not necessarily. I just don't buy the Op Euro track just yet. I said it the other day, sometimes the Op Euro can sniff out these dynamic systems before the Ensm but typically you lean towards the Ensm in the mid-range. I think by 00z tonight we should have an idea if the Op Euro is out to lunch or on to something. That sounds like a smart idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Any cool analogs popping up? Ginx mentioned Jan 78. That was BOS all time biggest storm. For about 2 weeks Here are the CIPS analogs. The first link is the Threat Guidance and the 2nd are the analogs. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/threats.php?reg=EC&flg=&date= http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F096&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Kind of all over the place with analogs, but some eye openers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At this point I'd ride a blend of the GGEM/GFS/ECMWF Ensm mean. See what 12z today brings. A blend of the ensembles of the three major models...that just about incorporates it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Tides are high too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Kind of all over the place with analogs, but some eye openers. Yup. The entry into "'94" snowmageddon on top should make Steve/Jerry happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Here are the CIPS analogs. The first link is the Threat Guidance and the 2nd are the analogs. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/threats.php?reg=EC&flg=&date= http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F096&flg= Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At this point I'd ride a blend of the GGEM/GFS/ECMWF Ensm mean. See what 12z today brings. Wrap this bad boy up tight. Temp's droppping; down 3.3* in the last hour. Time to head out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wrap this bad boy up tight. Temp's droppping; down 3.3* in the last hour. Time to head out. No thanks there QPF Queen. You actually probably would be better with a closer BM track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wow woke up and checked euro first... What a nice storm, and the cold will be insane the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 And another storm Jan 7th. Wow..Possible feet OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 And another storm Jan 7th. Wow..Possible feet OTG That one has just as equal a chance to be 60 and rain, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIsound Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Good sign….at beach ( RI) yesterday. visiting from the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I had read there have been a lot of snowy owls in SNE lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 OCMs who have no idea are clueless showing snow maps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 That one has just as equal a chance to be 60 and rain,What? Based upon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 OCMs who have no idea are clueless showing snow maps right now.I am glad none are showing that crazy long term euro weenie map that was posted earlier......oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Watch the euro go over CHH. How I pray Well it went over CHH lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 OCMs who have no idea are clueless showing snow maps right now. Its all about "getting the word out" "Hype sells" "Its meteorology not modelology" That's not what people do here? I'll stick to my 2' in Eastern area's... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well Dec 03 and Boxing Day had a more general screw zone from Tippyville to ASH/MHT. Boxing Day was more general, but Dec 2003 was absolutely cf attributed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What? Based upon? I said it could be. Based on pattern. We ride the line again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ive seen the euro amp up like this and then back down a bit. Of course it could be right, but it wouldn't be the first time. The temp gradients on this are some of the best all time. This, as modled, would be one of my favs. I suspect its overdone as well. That 00z EURO is what I want, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This, as modled, would be one of my favs. I suspect its overdone as well. That 00z EURO is what I want, though. Almost like boxing day only H5 closing off further east. You guys are totally hugging QPF though. You would rather a SE track given H7 and H5z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This, as modled, would be one of my favs. I suspect its overdone as well. That 00z EURO is what I want, though. 00z Euro would be a widespread double digit storm....but I won't bite on that yet. The benchmark track of the ensemble mean needs to be respected at 96-108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ensembles have a powerful low near the benchmark while the 06z gfs is still far south and weaker. All I need. I'm all in. Back to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.