40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Almost like boxing day only H5 closing off further east. You guys are totally hugging QPF though. You would rather a SE track given H7 and H5z I know that, which is why I was thrilled with the ECENS. That said, I'd take the OP EURO over the op GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 No thanks there QPF Queen. You actually probably would be better with a closer BM track. Really? Why? Better banding/avoiding a dry slot? Down 5* since 7:00a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Really? Why? Better banding/avoiding a dry slot? Down 5* since 7:00a.m. The storm is tilted with a very wide circulation in the mid-levels. Hugging the sfc track rules don't apply very well in this system. It's why the the sfc low on the 06z GFS is way outside the BM but yet a lot of SNE gets warning criteria snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 The storm is tilted with a very wide circulation in the mid-levels. Hugging the sfc track rules don't apply very well in this system. It's why the the sfc low on the 06z GFS is way outside the BM but yet a lot of SNE gets warning criteria snow. It's funny how so many seem to be focusing on the SLP track. In this case it's irrelevant. Most of the precip is from overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's funny how so many seem to be focusing on the SLP track. In this case it's irrelevant. Most of the precip is from overrunning Yeah well at least a chunk of it early on is...I don't know if I'd go as far as to say "most" of the precip is overrunning. We turn the flow easterly and get a some actual conveyorbelt going in most solutions when the secondayr begins to intenfisy. But the point does still stand that people shouldn't focus so much on the slp track and printed QPF in pretty colors....focus on the mechanisms in this thing as its complex. Its like the 12/14 event when people were getting so worked up over the QPF and everyone got hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah well at least a chunk of it early on is...I don't know if I'd go as far as to say "most" of the precip is overrunning. We turn the flow easterly and get a some actual conveyorbelt going in most solutions when the secondayr begins to intenfisy. The 2nd half of the storm is where it becomes more important for the SLP queens..Hopefully it's a 36-48 hour long duration event where it doesn't all pound down in 4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Really? Why? Better banding/avoiding a dry slot? Down 5* since 7:00a.m. Pretty much. It's a huge circulation. Can't stress that enough. I'm not saying this because it's better for MBY, but if I had to guess, the GFS is too far southeast and euro op too far NW. I still can't rule out either one, but just my gut. Part of me ultimately thinks something inside the benchmark, but the GEFS so far SE gives me a slight pause....although we've seen this movie before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I gotta give credit where it is due. Will's QPF Queen comment is awesome lol. He came up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's funny how so many seem to be focusing on the SLP track. In this case it's irrelevant. Most of the precip is from overrunning The track is important for avoiding mixing/changeover in coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I gotta give credit where it is due. Will's QPF Queen comment is awesome lol. He came up with that.Qpf queen>sneaky caution flags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 euro op evolution is interesting...digging that energy across the rockies and right down to TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The height falls were tremendous over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Qpf queen>sneaky caution flags LOL it's true though. The obsession with QPF is pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The height falls were tremendous over SNE.Thundersnow. Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yesterday the HPC (NPC now?) was concerned about data assimilation for the N stream. Is that good to go now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 240+ meter change in 12 hrs. That kind of stuff was Cialis for Drag back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yesterday the HPC (NPC now?) was concerned about data assimilation for the N stream. Is that good to go now? ...SHORTWAVE DIGGING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. ON DAY 3......SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGEDATING BACK TO THE 28/00Z MODEL CYCLE TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANSARE RATHER WELL DEFINED...BUT THE SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONALSOLUTIONS HAS INCREASED WITH RESPECT TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIOVALLEY ON DAY 3...PASSING OFF TO A POTENTIALLY STRONG ATLANTICCOASTAL LOW ON DAY 4...DISCUSSED BY THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE DESK.LOOKING AT FORECASTS VERIFYING 02/12Z...THE GEFS MEAN AND ECMWFENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE TRENDED TOWARD GREATER AMPLIFICATION OFSHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...AND TOWARD GREATERDEFINITION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY02/12Z. MODEL CYCLES BETWEEN 29/00Z AND THE CURRENT 30/00Z CYCLEFEATURED STEADY PERFORMANCE FROM THE MEANS...AND THE OPERATIONALGFS/ECMWF GENERALLY BECAME BETTER DEFINED WITH THE SURFACE LOW.THE 00Z ECMWF...HOWEVER...ADDED TO THE SPREAD BY INDICATING ASUBSTANTIALLY SHARPER UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERNPLAINS...AND SUBSEQUENT DELAY IN THE SURFACE LOW GETTING UP INTOTHE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ENTIRELY REASONABLE...AND THE GFSCERTAINLY HAS A TENDENCY TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE...BUT WE ALSO NOTETHAT IN RECENT DAYS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS TENDED TO ERR ON THEDEEP/AMPLIFIED SIDE...WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOMETIMESPERFORMING BETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL. THE 00Z UKMET SUPPORTS THEECMWF...BUT PERHAPS FOR THE WRONG REASONS...AS THE UKMET HAS NOTDONE WELL WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THEINCREASING UNCERTAINTY...WE RECOMMEND A CONSERVATIVEAPPROACH...STICKING WITH OUR PREVIOUS PREFERENCE OF THE 12Z ECMWFAND WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AS THIS POTENTIALLY STRONG WEATHERSYSTEM STRADDLES DAYS 3 AND 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Thanks again Bob. WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Green grass is sure nice in the spirng and summer..but man does it blow having to look at in winter. Can't wait to get it covered this week and not see it till Morch sometime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Green grass is sure nice in the spirng and summer..but man does it blow having to look at in winter. Can't wait to get it covered this week and not see it till Morch sometime It doesn't take much to get your weenie engine started lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 i hate the disjointed look. it takes so long to close off and the closed contour is broad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 OCMs starting to sneak the word "blizzard" into their segments on air, qualifying with words like possibly and maybe of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Pretty much. It's a huge circulation. Can't stress that enough. I'm not saying this because it's better for MBY, but if I had to guess, the GFS is too far southeast and euro op too far NW. I still can't rule out either one, but just my gut. Part of me ultimately thinks something inside the benchmark, but the GEFS so far SE gives me a slight pause....although we've seen this movie before. Other then possibly this system BM or outside tracks don't usually bode well up here for most of NNE unless the low tracks in the bay of fundy or over southern novie, This one looks not to be the case as there is a lot of over running moisture involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 It doesn't take much to get your weenie engine started lol.Im fired up and ready . Even it's only 8 inches. That's fine. Let's get it snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Other then possibly this system BM or outside tracks don't usually bode well up here for most of NNE unless the low tracks in the bay of fundy or over southern novie, This one looks not to be the case as there is a lot of over running moisture involved Yeah and even the H7 circulation becomes so huge...typical rules do not apply. It's about as uniform as you'll ever see regarding precip distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah and even the H7 circulation becomes so huge...typical rules do not apply. It's about as uniform as you'll ever see regarding precip distribution. Looks like the H7 low is west of us then closes off right on top of us on the Euro. Wouldn't that indicate dryslot problems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah and even the H7 circulation becomes so huge...typical rules do not apply. It's about as uniform as you'll ever see regarding precip distribution. if it was tighter this would be a KU with strong banding potential. frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looks like the H7 low is west of us then closes off right on top of us on the Euro. Wouldn't that indicate dryslot problems? Yeah a DS tickles SNE, but it helps having arctic air moving SW over the waters below 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 if it was tighter this would be a KU with strong banding potential. frustrating I think the euro op was too amped up, however that was also a better look than the messy 12z run which I did not like. For you guys you probably want that to deepen more further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think the euro op was too amped up, however that was also a better look than the messy 12z run which I did not like. For you guys you probably want that to deepen more further south. Looking at the 54 hour NAM compared to its 06z run really opened my eyes to the variance possible with each operational solution. People are going to drive themselves crazy the next few days if they don't use the ensemble guidance to get a better idea as to what is going on. Any time I see the Euro jump like that, I think it may be having a burp run. Especially recently when it has been prone to it -- over the past few months. So I really would like to see it hold a similar solution at 12z before we even start talking about this storm going down that path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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