NOVAForecaster Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 15Z SREF plumes near KUNV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The Binghamton post raises a concern of mine...fine flakes. I mentioned that 2005 bust, true Miller B with fine needle like flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The Binghamton post raises a concern of mine...fine flakes. I mentioned that 2005 bust, true Miller B with fine needle like flakes.Didn't most places get 4-8" from that 2005 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 The Binghamton post raises a concern of mine...fine flakes. I mentioned that 2005 bust, true Miller B with fine needle like flakes. Mets want to weigh in on this concern? Which should we be more concerned about - dryslot or ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The Binghamton post raises a concern of mine...fine flakes. I mentioned that 2005 bust, true Miller B with fine needle like flakes. I have to wonder if they're on something that were not seenIng. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 My only fear is some are getting their expectations too high today. Models tend to overdo qpf and the dry slot will be trucking. It will snow hard for a few hours but when relying on a thump just one or two hours of a dry slot can kill your totals. I think as long as expectations don't get out of hand this is likely to be good. I see 2-4 right along the pa md border and 3-5 north of 30 and 4-7 north of harrisburgh. I think the chance of a true bust where we get less then 2-3" is low but the high model qpf today is getting some people hyped for big totals given this is really just a waa thump with a fairly weak system overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I know everyone is sitting a little on edge with this one and with good reason in the LNS MDT area. (The light accums are not far from here) However, for December this pattern has been absolutely rocking for our region. I know places like UNV could have cashed in more but we've had what? Three, four, five threats to track so far? And we've all cashed in for the most part. Super active and plenty cold. So take the apprehension with a grain of salt. And BTW we've been radiationally (probably not a word) cooling like crazy down here and my super-not accurate reading here is 27. I think we'll be fine. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm expecting 3 to 5" maybe more maybe less?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 And BTW we've been radiationally (probably not a word) cooling like crazy down here and my super-not accurate reading here is 27. I think we'll be fine. Good luck everyone! Thanks for the update, neighborino! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Final numbers call KPIT: 3-5" KJST: 6-8" KUNV: 7-9" KIPT: 8-10" KMDT: 5-7" KHGR: 5-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Check out the Christmas am low temp at LNS from the 18Z GFS! Wow! http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=klns December seems like a lock to finish with below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Enter the contest folks http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41995-121413-snow-storm-contest/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Interesting facebook posts for NWS Binghamton: I have to ask a question: Do NWS mets get bonuses if they don't issue warnings? Not sure if serious...but the answer is no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 My only fear is some are getting their expectations too high today. Models tend to overdo qpf and the dry slot will be trucking. It will snow hard for a few hours but when relying on a thump just one or two hours of a dry slot can kill your totals. I think as long as expectations don't get out of hand this is likely to be good. I see 2-4 right along the pa md border and 3-5 north of 30 and 4-7 north of harrisburgh. I think the chance of a true bust where we get less then 2-3" is low but the high model qpf today is getting some people hyped for big totals given this is really just a waa thump with a fairly weak system overall. Very good post. I feel that this will underperform and the LSV counties could perhaps have the warnings downgraded. 5-8" seems like a reach based on the latest runs I've seen. Can't complain though, this past week has been amazing and I'll be happy with 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not sure if serious...but the answer is no. For the last couple of years, NWS Binghamton seems to march to it's own drum. I was being a smart a$$ regarding their not calling a warning again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 21/16 in Cashtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Final Guesses: IPT: 3.9 UNV: 4.2 JST: 4.0 MDT: 3.8 AVP: 5.6 AOO: 4.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Mets want to weigh in on this concern? Which should we be more concerned about - dryslot or ratios? Wow, just realized just how much of a disconnect there was with BGM compared to the bordering NWS areas of State College and Albany. To answer your question, I'm personally more concerned about a dry slot. I think we'll all hold our own with the standard ratios (near 10-12:1) for the most part. My concern is that maybe the primary lifts a bit more before the transfer and allows for the precip shield to be a bit further north and perhaps expose the southern tier of PA to more spotty coverage and lower totals that would probably not meet warning criteria if that happened. Then again, if all of this happened further south BGM might actually be looking pretty good with it's snowfall forecast. It's just a thought really, from what I see pretty much everyone should see a good snowfall near or above warning criteria. With this system being an unphased southern stream wave, there is going to be a ceiling on QPF as precip will progress and not linger.. likely a solid 0.5-0.8" type event. As I said before, the portion of the area that matches up the best QPF with the best snow ratios is going to be the region that sees widespread 6-10 inches. I'll be putting my final map out eventually this evening, wanna see some of the 0z first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wow, just realized just how much of a disconnect there was with BGM compared to the bordering NWS areas of State College and Albany. To answer your question, I'm personally more concerned about a dry slot. I think we'll all hold our own with the standard ratios (near 10-12:1) for the most part. My concern is that maybe the primary lifts a bit more before the transfer and allows for the precip shield to be a bit further north and perhaps expose the southern tier of PA to more spotty coverage and lower totals that would probably not meet warning criteria if that happened. Then again, if all of this happened further south BGM might actually be looking pretty good with it's snowfall forecast. It's just a thought really, from what I see pretty much everyone should see a good snowfall near or above warning criteria. With this system being an unphased southern stream wave, there is going to be a ceiling on QPF as precip will progress and not linger.. likely a solid 0.5-0.8" type event. As I said before, the portion of the area that matches up the best QPF with the best snow ratios is going to be the region that sees widespread 6-10 inches. I'll be putting my final map out eventually this evening, wanna see some of the 0z first. Get your call in to the contest before 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I can't say I am worried about any dry slot. NAM is extremely moist. Not like we are seeing a full transfer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Final guesses: GO BIG!!!! IPT 9.3 UNV 8.3 JST 7.3 MDT 6.3 AVP 5.3 AOO 8.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 YEA!!! I hope my boy pawatch takes home the prize lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM is kinda warm...but also very very loaded with moisture!! Will be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM is kinda warm...but also very very loaded with moisture!! Will be interesting! Euro much colder than NAM.. ya not worried. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hey is it going to snow?? Who cares if nws if wrong. It will do what nature wants its to do. No One cares if the forcast is off t to the inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Uhhoh...hedging it back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Uhhoh...hedging it back a bit. Don't even know what your referring too. There has been so much model consensus for days. It will snow. NAM is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Uhhoh...hedging it back a bit. Don't even know what your referring too. There has been so much model consensus for days. It will snow. NAM is awesome. I know what he's talking about. This map has much less for my area than the previous map. 8-10 on the old map to 4-6 on this one. What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I know what he's talking about. This map has much less for my area than the previous map. 8-10 on the old map to 4-6 on this one. What happened? Never mind. I know what happened. On the old one, there was no ice in my forecast, but now they have up to 0.25" of ice. I thought it would be cold enough to stay all or mostly frozen. So the latest NAM came in warmer and pushed mixed precip farther north and west, and CTP changes the map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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