Central PA/fringes of MD - December 2013 continued

[EasternUSWX]

Euro and GFS now advertising a serious ice storm DEC 21/22. Will need to keep an eye on that. 

[CarlislePaWx]

Euro and GFS now advertising a serious ice storm DEC 21/22. Will need to keep an eye on that. 

 

(For all you weather trivia buffs out there...especially all the 20-somethings...)

 

Eerily reminiscent of the winter of '93-94.  That winter had just about everything you could imagine in winter weather.  Tons of snowstorms of around 70" for the season (in north jersey), and one incredible ice storm with well over 0.5" accretion of ice everywhere.  Temps were in the TEENS during that ice storm.  Extreme northwest NJ was actually 4 degrees above zero Fahrenheit with heavy freezing rain!!  I'll bet not too many on this board can say they have ever witnessed that!  That January of 1994 produced the coldest temperatures that rivaled the all-time record coldest temperature for the state of NJ (-34F back in 1936) at -33 degrees.  At my station I recorded a low of -8F for my all-time lowest temp.  That was also the month that out here, on January 21st Harrisburg International recorded it's all-time record low temperature of -22F!!  That was on the same morning I recorded my minus 8F.

 

So, all I can say is get ready.  By the way, that NJ ice storm I spoke of occurred less than a week before the all--time record lows were established.  I wonder if we will see weather extremes around here this winter?

[NortheastPAWx]

January 1994 - 42.3" of snow at KAVP, a temp of -21.

 

Nothing will ever best that.

[MAG5035]

(For all you weather trivia buffs out there...especially all the 20-somethings...)

 

Eerily reminiscent of the winter of '93-94.  That winter had just about everything you could imagine in winter weather.  Tons of snowstorms of around 70" for the season (in north jersey), and one incredible ice storm with well over 0.5" accretion of ice everywhere.  Temps were in the TEENS during that ice storm.  Extreme northwest NJ was actually 4 degrees above zero Fahrenheit with heavy freezing rain!!  I'll bet not too many on this board can say they have ever witnessed that!  That January of 1994 produced the coldest temperatures that rivaled the all-time record coldest temperature for the state of NJ (-34F back in 1936) at -33 degrees.  At my station I recorded a low of -8F for my all-time lowest temp.  That was also the month that out here, on January 21st Harrisburg International recorded it's all-time record low temperature of -22F!!  That was on the same morning I recorded my minus 8F.

 

So, all I can say is get ready.  By the way, that NJ ice storm I spoke of occurred less than a week before the all--time record lows were established.  I wonder if we will see weather extremes around here this winter?

 

It's definitely an interesting thing to consider. About a month or so ago one of you guys commented on DT's post that claimed about this guy apparently being able to calculate the average NAO level with very good accuracy for each winter and that this one was supposed to be solidly negative overall. Of course up to this point we have seen a relatively positive NAO and especially AO regime and that looks to continue for the time being. At any rate, he had that chart that showed how the guys calculations stood up to actual average values to each winter. One thing that jumped out at me about that chart was not so much the prediction, but that the winters of 92-93 and 93-94 featured quite a high average positive NAO. This opening month or so of winter weather has been a pretty good lesson on not needing the classic -NAO/+PNA to bring some decent winter weather to central PA. I'd be curious to see any data on the EPO for the 93-94 winter. The -EPO has really been a big factor so far this winter with keeping the source region of the air masses out of Canada. So while we have a progressive pattern without any blocking, we have had consistent shots of strong cold air masses. I'd be afraid to see what our late November/Early December would have been like with a positive EPO (strong Pac Jet flooding the US with Pacific air). We'd likely have been talking about a dead on arrival winter circa December 2006. What I'll be curious to see, is if this general theme continues throughout the winter or we have a more front end loaded winter. 

[MAG5035]

And here's my final map on today's snowstorm. No ridiculous changes, just did some tweaking of the boundaries mainly. Made 6-8 range to 6-9 and expanded coverage further NW in north central PA.  Lessened amounts a bit further into SW PA and brought the 6 and 3 inch line slightly NW in Eastern and Southeastern PA. Inserted a pink dashed line to denote mainly snow vs snow changing to a mix toward the end of the event. 

 

 

[jm1220]

Just realized this event is coming on the ten year anniversary of this:

 

NationalFronts-1800Z-14Dec03.gif

 

SnowTotals-14Dec03.jpg

From that on Long Island I had about 6" snow then rain and a torch up to nearly 50 degrees and all that snow washed away. Hopefully that doesn't happen again IMBY but what can you do. Good luck guys-hopefully this is the Miller B to work out.

[Voyager]

(For all you weather trivia buffs out there...especially all the 20-somethings...)

 

Eerily reminiscent of the winter of '93-94.  That winter had just about everything you could imagine in winter weather.  Tons of snowstorms of around 70" for the season (in north jersey), and one incredible ice storm with well over 0.5" accretion of ice everywhere.  Temps were in the TEENS during that ice storm.  Extreme northwest NJ was actually 4 degrees above zero Fahrenheit with heavy freezing rain!!  I'll bet not too many on this board can say they have ever witnessed that!  That January of 1994 produced the coldest temperatures that rivaled the all-time record coldest temperature for the state of NJ (-34F back in 1936) at -33 degrees.  At my station I recorded a low of -8F for my all-time lowest temp.  That was also the month that out here, on January 21st Harrisburg International recorded it's all-time record low temperature of -22F!!  That was on the same morning I recorded my minus 8F.

 

So, all I can say is get ready.  By the way, that NJ ice storm I spoke of occurred less than a week before the all--time record lows were established.  I wonder if we will see weather extremes around here this winter?

 

I remember that winter quite well. It seemed I was shoveling snow every three to four days or so. We never got any kind of big event, but a lot of 3-6, 4-8 type storms. Some mixed, some all snow. The ice storm is a particular memory for me, because, like you said, freezing rain with temps under 10 degrees. It was 8 at my house when the precipitation started. That was, and I believe still is, the snowiest winter in the Lehigh Valley, where I lived at the time (Bethlehem). And it was cold for most of it, as we pretty much had a solid snow cover nearly the entire season.

[Voyager]

One observation before the flakes fly. I suppose due to the early cloud cover last night, my temperature has not budged from 27 degrees since about 8:00PM.

[Wmsptwx]

26 here waiting for flakes. Feeling a 3 to 5 storm is on the way, we will see.

[Voyager]

Light snow started here at about 5:15AM, although I think it may be spotty for awhile as the radar returns are not solid over the area. Temp dropped one to 26.

[AllWeather]

CTP's call is very bullish in the southeast counties. HRRR is VERY warm for southern counties. Pretty good in my book farther north, where the warm air will struggle to get into. RAP is colder, but still a changeover around 01z for areas south of the turnpike.

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

28/24 currently after a low of 21 last night around 8.  Holding onto a 2" snowpack.

 

Good luck to everyone today!!

 

Cashtown, PA (western adams)

[pawatch]

Look at that storm pulling moisture from the gulf.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php

[AllWeather]

Look at that storm pulling moisture from the gulf.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php

Juiced

[Jns2183]

The winds just switched to the NNE here in Camp Hill it seems. Any reason for the drastic wind direction shift?

[AllWeather]

The winds just switched to the NNE here in Camp Hill it seems. Any reason for the drastic wind direction shift?

There's an arctic front that has essentially stalled out over S-C PA. North of the front, winds are more northeasterly & temps/DPs are colder/drier.

[Jns2183]

So it's probably a good thing for snowfall purposes that it seems to have passed here?

[whiteout]

There's an arctic front that has essentially stalled out over S-C PA. North of the front, winds are more northeasterly & temps/DPs are colder/drier.

Yeah sitting out here in the woods on the last day of deer season this wind shift has been very noticible the last hour. (Western Cumberland County)

[EasternUSWX]

Snow has begun. 

[PennMan]

Very fine flakes here in Bellefonte right now. Radar looks great to the south. Temp is 21.

[Cashtown_Coop]

There's an arctic front that has essentially stalled out over S-C PA. North of the front, winds are more northeasterly & temps/DPs are colder/drier.

Hope front pushes south of me.

 

Here's a piece from LWX discussion:

 

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE EARLY THIS

MORNING...LIKELY STALLING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE AIR MASS BEHIND IT ISN/T EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...IT WILL HELP

TO MAINTAIN SOME COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.

 

 

[NeffsvilleWx]

Got some virga at the moment according to local radar

[EasternUSWX]

Already got a dusting. Snow picking up. Lets rock. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Already got a dusting. Snow picking up. Lets rock. 

good luck today!  whats your temp?

 

first flakes flying

[Caveman]

Yeah sitting out here in the woods on the last day of deer season this wind shift has been very noticible the last hour. (Western Cumberland County)

[Caveman]

Now that is a great Wx obs based on experience and actual occurrences! No binary code predicting how the thermodynamics of the atmosphere will react when A acts on B, etc...

Just refreshing to see good old Wx obs!

Enjoy your wintry Saturday!

[sauss06]

Mornin peeps! 27 in Summerdale.

Heading to York County to cut our tree. Good luck all. Looking forward to everyones reports/ops!

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

no precip yet.  29.3 degrees.

[EasternUSWX]

good luck today!  whats your temp?

 

first flakes flying

 

Temperature is 30.8 and dew point is 25. Expect temperature to fall a little once snow really picks up. 

[Rick G]

At my favorite breakfast place, Abe's in WB.

Light snow here. A solid dusting. Roads are just starting to be covered. Temp is 22f.