Central PA/fringes of MD - December 2013 continued

[canderson]

Parts of Massachusettes are going to get buried, holy crap.

[EasternUSWX]

Looking at current obs to the west... it is not taking long for what the radar shows to be reaching the ground... already moderate snow near chicago

 

Ya and radar looks dang good. 

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

What a gradient. Mby is around 8 inches while a 15 minute drive to the south is shafted or at best a token fringe.

[Wmsptwx]

lol...UNV and IPT better look out for advisory totals according to RGEM.

[EasternUSWX]

lol...UNV and IPT better look out for advisory totals according to RGEM.

 

No. That's 5" and it's only based on 10:1 ratios. Totals would be around 7" taking the 5" and using 12-15:1. 

[EasternUSWX]

Has everyone got in their totals?

 

Contest closes at 1am

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41995-121413-snow-storm-contest/

[WildWeatherAdventure]

21z SREF ticked up a bit. Mean snowfall output is 0.94" for UNV. I would assume a bit overdone but really gets the juices flowing!

[Voyager]

Parts of Massachusetts are going to get buried, holy crap.

 

So would Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA if that were to verify.

[Wmsptwx]

Wow at SREFs....GFS and NAM also ticked up in precip.

[EasternUSWX]

Wow at SREFs....GFS and NAM also ticked up in precip.

 

Looking at radar, not surprised. 

[Boreal]

Always like using this national radar mosaic for the big picture.  Looks as though things are beginning to moisten up even as far NE as SW PA.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

[EasternUSWX]

Always like using this national radar mosaic for the big picture.  Looks as though things are beginning to moisten up even as far NE as SW PA.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

 

Same thing I look at. That and GR Earth.

[canderson]

I always forget, what time does Euro run tonight? And is anyone staying up to post details?

[NortheastPAWx]

Waiter! There is ice in my snow!

 

131215/0500Z 29 09006KT 23.6F SNPL 2:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.043 10:1| 8.9|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.86 59| 41| 0
131215/0600Z 30 VRB02KT 23.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.051 10:1| 8.9|| 0.03|| 0.05|| 0.91 0| 5| 95
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
131215/0700Z 31 VRB02KT 24.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.026 10:1| 8.9|| 0.03|| 0.08|| 0.94 0| 0|100
131215/0800Z 32 02003KT 24.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 10:1| 8.9|| 0.03|| 0.09|| 0.95 0| 0|100
131215/0900Z 33 VRB02KT 23.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 10:1| 8.9|| 0.03|| 0.10|| 0.95 0| 0|100
131215/1000Z 34 33003KT 23.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 8.9|| 0.03|| 0.10|| 0.95 0| 0| 0

[EasternUSWX]

I always forget, what time does Euro run tonight? And is anyone staying up to post details?

 

It is kinda pointless at this stage. Storm starts in like 9hrs. 

[MAG5035]

The NAM bombs the area of north central PA that the RGEM seems to relegate to mainly high end advisory totals. NAMs probably too far NW and RGEM seems a bit south of where I'd put the axis of heaviest snows in the face of the GFS/NAM driving ice up the Sus Valley. The 21z SREFs do drive some pretty good probs of freezing rain as well into the PA border counties and up into the Sus Valley late in the storm. That is quite likely why CTP updated their snow map and added a pretty sizeable region of .1-.25" to their ice map. A split between the RGEM and NAM heavy snow axis is what I would personally favor, with some potential of freezing rain late or near the end of the storm mainly south of the turnpike. 

[Wmsptwx]

Euro runs at 1am I believe!! 

[JamieOber]

Waiter! There is ice in my snow!

 

131215/0500Z 29 09006KT 23.6F SNPL 2:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.043 10:1| 8.9|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.86 59| 41| 0

131215/0600Z 30 VRB02KT 23.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.051 10:1| 8.9|| 0.03|| 0.05|| 0.91 0| 5| 95

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

131215/0700Z 31 VRB02KT 24.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.026 10:1| 8.9|| 0.03|| 0.08|| 0.94 0| 0|100

131215/0800Z 32 02003KT 24.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 10:1| 8.9|| 0.03|| 0.09|| 0.95 0| 0|100

131215/0900Z 33 VRB02KT 23.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 10:1| 8.9|| 0.03|| 0.10|| 0.95 0| 0|100

131215/1000Z 34 33003KT 23.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 8.9|| 0.03|| 0.10|| 0.95 0| 0| 0

cool....about less than a tenth of freezing drizzle to put a nice coating on the snow and keep it around longer. Kind of insane to make a big deal out of that.

[Wmsptwx]

cool....about less than a tenth of freezing drizzle to put a nice coating on the snow and keep it around longer. Kind of insane to make a big deal out of that.

 

I was thinking the same thing Jamie! I'm hoping for the NAM solution!! lol. GFS also added more precip over central part of state! I'm starting to think 6 plus is possible!

[djr5001]

I always forget, what time does Euro run tonight? And is anyone staying up to post details?

12:47am and pm until we change the clocks

[paweather]

Radar looks moist. Bring it into this cold air!

[Rick G]

Snow is like sex, you get a little you're happy.  

I  am thinking that totals are going to go up after the euro comes in. The storm is getting wetter.

 I 

[canderson]

Temp dropped quickly, down to 29.

[EasternUSWX]

So that heavy band in WV... hmm. Watch that dump 1-2" before we really even get started. 

[NortheastPAWx]

Temp dropped quickly, down to 29.

Send that temp drop here!

[paweather]

Look at that cold air in NY and moisture to our south what an ingredient! High pressure keeps building that's what I call a great December so far!

[MAG5035]

Just realized this event is coming on the ten year anniversary of this:

 

 

[NortheastPAWx]

Starting to come down a bit.

 

12/14/13 12:58a 29.9 30.0 29.9 66 19.9 2.0 E 0.03 3.0 E 28.7 29.3 28.1 30.277 0.00 0.00 0.024 0.000 78.3 12 21.5 75.0 3.02 .0744 23 1 100.0 1
12/14/13 12:59a 29.8 29.9 29.8 66 19.8 1.0 ESE 0.02 2.0 ESE 29.8 29.2 29.2 30.275 0.00 0.00 0.024 0.000 78.3 12 21.5 75.0 3.02 .0744 24 1 100.0 1
12/14/13 1:00a 29.7 29.8 29.7 67 20.1 2.0 ESE 0.03 3.0 SE 28.4 29.1 27.8 30.276 0.00 0.00 0.025 0.000 78.3 12 21.5 75.0 3.02 .0744 23 1 100.0 1
12/14/13 1:01a 29.6 29.7 29.6 67 20.0 2.0 ESE 0.03 2.0 ESE 28.3 29.0 27.7 30.276 0.00 0.00 0.025 0.000 78.3 12 21.5 75.0 3.02 .0744 24 1 100.0 1
12/14/13 1:02a 29.5 29.6 29.5 67 19.9 2.0 ESE 0.03 3.0 ESE 28.2 28.9 27.6 30.278 0.00 0.00 0.025 0.000 78.3 12 21.5 75.0 3.02 .0744 23 1 100.0 1
12/14/13 1:03a 29.4 29.4 29.4 68 20.1 1.0 ESE 0.02 2.0 ESE 29.4 28.9 28.9 30.279 0.00 0.00 0.025 0.000 78.3 12 21.5 75.0 

[EasternUSWX]

Here is the listings from the storm contest thread. Good luck everyone.

 

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

Anyone showing euro totals? Other forums have it more amped and wet, but colder. Not sure how that relates to us.