skiier04 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wow... another huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Temps look good. Again don't see any mixing issues until the heaviest precip moved to the east. This is a very very good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z NAM is WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Clown maps showing 10-14" for central and northern mountains this run. 6+ for pretty much the entire state. Typical of NAM to overdo QPF at this stage of the game however. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=212876 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I wish the NAM was more trustworthy than Kim Jung Un. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Oh NAM you are something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Clown maps with 12"-14" KUNV, probably closer to 8"-10" with the known NAM wet bias, but still nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think region wide 3 to 6 with isolated 8" amounts sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I mean... come on, really? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131213&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PSB&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.13243174217395&mLON=-80.277516015625&mTYP=roadmap http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rad36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wow that's some serious DBZ right there, 2-3" in an hour if that were to verify. I mean... come on, really? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131213&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PSB&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.13243174217395&mLON=-80.277516015625&mTYP=roadmap http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rad36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I want to believe! But then I remember that the NAM and SREFs can and do vastly overdo precip (i.e. the last event). Hopefully we don't get suckered into these very snowy solutions, only to see precip break apart as the low transfers to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Think I would go with a Euro/GFS blend for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I want to believe! But then I remember that the NAM and SREFs can and do vastly overdo precip (i.e. the last event). Hopefully we don't get suckered into these very snowy solutions, only to see precip break apart as the low transfers to the coast... This!! If you are expecting 3 to 6 this event will produce! Just don't fall in love with the juiced up solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 CTP going 3-5 for MDT. I agree with that call, doubt we see the higher numbers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 CTP going 3-5 for MDT. I agree with that call, doubt we see the higher numbers here. That's what I'm thinking as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Final Call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I have a weird anti-ween feeling that this has got "letdown" written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS is a solid 5-10" snow from Harrisburg north..especially around UNV/SEG. Farther south there's definitely a p-type battle going on. Winds on GFS are more SE at the surface than E/NE that the NAM was depicting. As a result, on the grids south of MDT goes over to a bit of RAIN after a period of freezing rain (after a 3-6" snow..+SN at times after 18z). The dryslot timing is also a huge wild card...my experience says the dryslot almost always comes in faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Contrary to what we usually see out of the HPC (WPC, whatever) is quite bullish on accumulations Saturday. This is the HPC's 50% right in the middle of the guidance "best guess" on accumulations from 12z Sat through 12z Sun. Here is the 75% map, showing the top quartile of snowfall potential. The light blue is indeed 12-15" EDIT: Might be 10-12" instead...the legend has 3 shades of light blue but the map has only two. Even the 25% accumulations show 6-8" across a lot of the area. The HPC has high confidence that this will be a significant, approaching major snowfall across PA. Maps: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?ftype=percentiles&fpd=24&ptype=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think region wide 3 to 6 with isolated 8" amounts sounds about right. I agree. I mean... come on, really? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131213&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PSB&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.13243174217395&mLON=-80.277516015625&mTYP=roadmap http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rad36.gif I think I know who the father is for those NAM babies...HPC should take care of their kids, to paraphrase Chris Rock: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Eric Horst is on board for 3" to 6" so I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My final call (I basically upped most numbers by an inch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I can't remember the last time those HPC charts were ever that bullish for this area. Exciting!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is the map to which I am clinging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 I have a weird anti-ween feeling that this has got "letdown" written all over it. Agreed - Miller Bs shaft someone, and the trend these past several winters is to shaft UNV/AOO/JST/IPT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 CTP going 3-5 for MDT. I agree with that call, doubt we see the higher numbers here. yep, i like the call too. and i honestly wouldn't be shocked if someone close by mdt gets a lil more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is the map to which I am clinging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My final call (I basically upped most numbers by an inch). Looks pretty good to me. The wild card could be in the southern areas if significant mid/low-level frontogenesis occurs as in the Euro depiction. That idea may have some support with PA in the left exit region of the upper-level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My final call (I basically upped most numbers by an inch). 20131213snowfinal.png ^^^^ Beautiful map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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