Big Jims Videos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 MDT right on the 6 inch line. Impressive. Looks like the models show a possible Wyoming Valley screw zone for NEPA, which was the story of my life when I lived up there in 2010-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 MDT right on the 6 inch line. Impressive. Looks like the models show a possible Wyoming Valley screw zone for NEPA, which was the story of my life when I lived up there in 2010-2012. Ha, that's the story of my life, period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Going to be awesome, searching for and cutting down a 9' tree in a snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 WSW up URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA908 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT....ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIATHIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAYMORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 6INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA.PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>058-131900-/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0010.131214T1000Z-131215T0600Z/WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE908 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGHLATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM AROUND DAWN SATURDAY MORNINGTHROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AND TAPER OFF LATESATURDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON SNOW PACKED AND SLIPPERY ROADS.* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.DEVOIR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I feel those watches will come south as well. NAM now falls in line. CTP relies on SREFS, not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I've only lived here for a year but I know enough about this game to know what happens many times. With no block in place there's no reason for the overrunning moisture to scream eastward and once the energy transfers, the precip shield shrinks and focuses on eastern coastal New Jersey and points north and east. Were left with broken radar echoes as north jersey goes to town.I would be more worried if this was a classic miller b system. With most of these recently the h5 support is amplifying and it's a dynamic bombing system. This leads to consolidating of energy and a contracted precip field and our location further inland gets screwed. This time the h5 is not really amplified and the upper support is actually back over the lakes. The surface low sneaks under the high but this is waa driven from the stj running into an arctic high mostly. I don't think we will se a crazy screw zone. No one is getting 20" from this but I think a more widespread 3-6 or 4-8 is likely. These type systems have been more rare lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I feel those watches will come south as well. NAM now falls in line. CTP relies on SREFS, not sure why. They should keep it as it is. Regardless of what the wxbell clown maps say, I'm not expecting 6"+ for the LSV. 2-5" is more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I would be more worried if this was a classic miller b system. With most of these recently the h5 support is amplifying and it's a dynamic bombing system. This leads to consolidating of energy and a contracted precip field and our location further inland gets screwed. This time the h5 is not really amplified and the upper support is actually back over the lakes. The surface low sneaks under the high but this is waa driven from the stj running into an arctic high mostly. I don't think we will se a crazy screw zone. No one is getting 20" from this but I think a more widespread 3-6 or 4-8 is likely. These type systems have been more rare lately. Don't look at the latest nam! I think this storm has the potential for some surprises. For some reason my gut tells me interior New Jersey is the place to be. The latest nam though screws lsv and the Wyoming valley. It bombs the low off jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 They should keep it as it is. Regardless of what the wxbell maps say, I'm not expecting 6"+ for the LSV. 2-5" is more like it. Precip on all models is between .6-.8" qpf and most of it falls as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm not holding the nam to what that run showed by any means. When does the gfs start to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That WSW isn't for HBG/LSV? It says central and north central PA only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nam looks fine?? Nice qpf region wide and probably nice ratios north!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think they will be extended to the md line. Trends have been heading that way. Im sure they want to see the 0 z runs and there is plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm not holding the nam to what that run showed by any means. When does the gfs start to run Same here. Nam usually override precip. However, other models have been falling in line with this system. The 00z runs should shed some light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think they will be extended to the md line. Trends have been heading that way. Im sure they want to see the 0 z runs and there is plenty of time.I see the WSW on point and click and wunderground when entering my zip. I'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Don't look at the latest nam! I think this storm has the potential for some surprises. For some reason my gut tells me interior New Jersey is the place to be. The latest nam though screws lsv and the Wyoming valley. It bombs the low off jersey.I don't usually pay any attention to the nam. It can't get yesterday right. Rgem is a much better high res model IMHO. Also I guess it's a matter of expectations. I wouldn't call 4-5" of snow getting "screwed". My expectations are in check for this. It has potential to be solid but not a major event. I also don't buy the overdone precip in nj and a decent percent of that is ice or rain anyways. Besides if we get 5" and nj gets 10 that's not really a screw job. That's when we get 2" and nj gets 15". It's all opinion of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think they will be extended to the md line. Trends have been heading that way. Im sure they want to see the 0 z runs and there is plenty of time.I see the WSW on point and click and wunderground when entering my zip. I'm confused. Eastern shore is under wsw, western has hazardous outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM does kind of set the possible "screw you Central PA" scenario. Really hammers NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM does kind of set the possible "screw you Central PA" scenario. Really hammers NJ and NYC.That was a good meme from last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 One thing for sure, I don't see us out here switching to plain rain at all. Even with the meager snow pack here it's around 20 and prolly going into the low teens or lower down by millersville tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM does kind of set the possible "screw you Central PA" scenario. Really hammers NJ and NYC. I gotta weird feeling about a central jersey surprise. I've seen and experienced it too many times growing up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Mmmmmmm http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM text for KUNV 131214/0800Z 32 VRB02KT 23.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0131214/0900Z 33 09003KT 24.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0131214/1000Z 34 10005KT 24.2F SNOW 9:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 9:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0131214/1100Z 35 12005KT 24.2F SNOW 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0131214/1200Z 36 11006KT 23.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---131214/1300Z 37 11007KT 23.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0131214/1400Z 38 12008KT 24.3F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0131214/1500Z 39 12007KT 25.4F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0131214/1600Z 40 12009KT 26.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 12:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0131214/1700Z 41 12009KT 26.3F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 12:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0131214/1800Z 42 12010KT 26.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 12:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---131214/1900Z 43 12010KT 26.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 12:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0131214/2000Z 44 12011KT 27.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 11:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 100| 0| 0131214/2100Z 45 12011KT 27.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 11:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0131214/2200Z 46 12012KT 27.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 11:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0131214/2300Z 47 11012KT 26.1F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 10:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0131215/0000Z 48 11012KT 24.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 10:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---131215/0100Z 49 11012KT 23.3F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 9:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0131215/0200Z 50 11012KT 22.2F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 9:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0131215/0300Z 51 11011KT 21.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 9:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50 100| 0| 0131215/0400Z 52 11009KT 20.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 9:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 100| 0| 0131215/0500Z 53 10007KT 20.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 9:1| 5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57 100| 0| 0131215/0600Z 54 10006KT 20.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 9:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---131215/0700Z 55 09004KT 20.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 9:1| 5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 100| 0| 0131215/0800Z 56 VRB02KT 20.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 8:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 100| 0| 0131215/0900Z 57 VRB02KT 20.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 8:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0131215/1000Z 58 VRB02KT 20.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 8:1| 6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75 100| 0| 0131215/1100Z 59 33003KT 20.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 8:1| 6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 100| 0| 0131215/1200Z 60 01003KT 20.6F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 8:1| 6.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---131215/1300Z 61 05003KT 20.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 8:1| 6.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77 0| 0|100131215/1400Z 62 VRB01KT 22.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 8:1| 6.3|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.78 0| 0|100131215/1500Z 63 VRB02KT 25.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 8:1| 6.3|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.78 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM does kind of set the possible "screw you Central PA" scenario. Really hammers NJ and NYC.A good bit of that precip in nj is not snow. Big warm layer comes in this that precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS looks wetter. And warmer I believe (I'm not great at temp profiles). Watch this end up as a rainstorm. I'll kill something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 0z NAM and GFS come completely on board. This should be widespread several inches of snow for LSV and C PA. Great runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS looks wetter. And warmer I believe (I'm not great at temp profiles). Watch this end up as a rainstorm. I'll kill something. No Rainstorm. High Pressure to the north positioned very good for us. If anything we go to a mix but that is after several inches of snow. GFS is warmer than NAM both are wetter. Just IMO I am no expert but have been following looking at models for years. This is a good setup for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Like my call of 2 to 5 for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS looks wetter. And warmer I believe (I'm not great at temp profiles). Watch this end up as a rainstorm. I'll kill something. It looks like drizzle at the very end but you get .58 of what looks like snow. It's not going to end up as a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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