Central PA/fringes of MD - December 2013 continued

[NeffsvilleWx]

Isn't the Nam overdoing the QPF?  Also I'm wondering if the ratio's are going to be higher than what the models are predicting.

 

Possibly, still waiting on the 12z GFS

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

I ll take another 3 to 4! Apparently we hand a solid 1/4 inch this morning in 20 minutes as I called home to verify. Visibility was low and roads were getting covered. I escaped it and got to 83 & there was nothing. I dont have a 4x4 anymore and our hills can be a beast. An inch or more on the road with a slope is too much for a Camry. Time to buy chains!

[JamieOber]

Isn't the Nam overdoing the QPF?  Also I'm wondering if the ratio's are going to be higher than what the models are predicting.

Watch those ratios. Can any pro or other person knowledgeable on ratios give us some ideas on that for this storm? The reason why I say this is we had a big bust from a Miller B where we didn't get as much snow due to the awful ratios. The "flakes" were more like needles. So we got about half of what was expected. I remember Joe Lundberg from AccuWeather warning me about it, some layer was too warm or something. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

Watch those ratios. Can any pro or other person knowledgeable on ratios give us some ideas on that for this storm? The reason why I say this is we had a big bust from a Miller B where we didn't get as much snow due to the awful ratios. The "flakes" were more like needles. So we got about half of what was expected. I remember Joe Lundberg from AccuWeather warning me about it, some layer was too warm or something. 

 

At MDT, NAM ratios average 9:1, with the min being 7:1 and the max being 13:1

 

Temps look good for snow, until a warm layer moves in between 950 and 850 mb right around the transition to fzra.

[paweather]

Looking good. we have solid agreement.

[sauss06]

Roughly noon until early morning sunday, transitioning from snow to fzra at about 10 pm on sat night at MDT, per 12z NAM.

cool, tree cutting down in the snow.

[paweather]

enjoyment only doubt it verifies completely:

 

[NeffsvilleWx]

enjoyment only doubt it verifies completely:

 

 

 

please...no more wxbell... They're the worst.

 

Plus, isn't wxbell a pay site?

[whiteout]

GFS looks really good for the LSV!! Most of the precip falls as snow before the upper air warms to change it to FZDZ

[whiteout]

enjoyment only doubt it verifies completely:

GFS is definitely trending colder towards the EURO. Yesterday's runs showed nowhere near that amount of snow for the LSV, even if the maps may be overdone.

[CarlislePaWx]

Cobb text output for Westminster says total of 0.68 qpf, with 3.6" snow, 0.22" rain and the rest fzdz.

Could you possibly post the link to the cobb site?  I can't remember how far back it was discussed.

[JamieOber]

please...no more wxbell... They're the worst.

 

Plus, isn't wxbell a pay site?

If WxBell snowmaps ever came close to reality, the scenes around PA would make the second half of Day After Tomorrow look like the volcano planet scenes in Revenge of the Sith. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

Could you possibly post the link to the cobb site?  I can't remember how far back it was discussed.

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kmdt

[NeffsvilleWx]

If WxBell snowmaps ever came close to reality, the scenes around PA would make the second half of Day After Tomorrow look like the volcano planet scenes in Revenge of the Sith. 

 

lol yep.

 

Just to throw this out there, the wxbell snowmaps are NOT GFS verbatim. I'm not sure what kind of algorithm wxbell uses, but it's never right.

[paweather]

lol yep.

Just to throw this out there, the wxbell snowmaps are NOT GFS verbatim. I'm not sure what kind of algorithm wxbell uses, but it's never right.

Sorry didn't get from wxbell. It was posted on Facebook. Understood it won't verify just posting it. Didn't mean any harm.

[NortheastPAWx]

If we can keep that warm layer out we could make a run at 6. Here's hoping. (UNV 12Z NAM)

 

131215/0500Z 65 11006KT 25.4F SNPL 6:1| 0.2|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.034 10:1| 5.2|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.49 63| 37| 0
131215/0600Z 66 11005KT 25.6F SNPL 4:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.019 10:1| 5.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.51 65| 35| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
131215/0700Z 67 10003KT 25.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 10:1| 5.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.52 100| 0| 0
131215/0800Z 68 09003KT 25.2F SNPL 6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.010 10:1| 5.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.53 70| 30| 0
131215/0900Z 69 VRB02KT 25.2F SNPL 5:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.018 10:1| 5.5|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.55 67| 33| 0
131215/1000Z 70 VRB01KT 25.6F SNPL 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 10:1| 5.6|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.56 84| 16| 0

[CarlislePaWx]

I think the latest Cobb data is from the 06Z run.  Will amounts be a tad higher from 12Z output?

[NeffsvilleWx]

I think the latest Cobb data is from the 06Z run.  Will amounts be a tad higher from 12Z output?

 

 

It is. Still waiting on the 12z

[CarlislePaWx]

It is. Still waiting on the 12z

Yeah...just compared total qpf from both runs and it looks like 12Z went up around 0.15" more.  Encouraging for sure unless most of that increase is from ZR at the end.

[sauss06]

Stays chilly too afterwards

[NeffsvilleWx]

12z gfs adds .209" snow qpf.

[Wmsptwx]

Looks like a solid 2 to 4 type for all with cold afterword!! I'm taking it and running!!

[mappy]

Cobb text output for Westminster says total of 0.68 qpf, with 3.6" snow, 0.22" rain and the rest fzdz.

 

The snow ratios for Cobb are never right. I always look at the qpf values, which for Westminster was .41 while snow was falling.

[NeffsvilleWx]

The snow ratios for Cobb are never right. I always look at the qpf values, which for Westminster was .41 while snow was falling.

 

So coolwx would be a better source than Cobb?

[CarlislePaWx]

12z gfs adds .209" snow qpf.

That's not what the text data seems to indicate:

 

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

131214/1500Z  51  10007KT  25.4F  SNOW   13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031   13:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0

131214/1800Z  54  10009KT  26.3F  SNOW   13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093   13:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0

131214/2100Z  57  09006KT  29.4F  SNOW   13:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149   13:1|  3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27  100|  0|  0

131215/0000Z  60  10008KT  31.5F SNZRPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.27|| 0.14|| 0.269   13:1|  3.5|| 0.27|| 0.14|| 0.54   38| 12| 50

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

131215/0300Z  63  08006KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057   13:1|  3.5|| 0.27|| 0.14|| 0.60    0|  0|100

131215/0600Z  66  36003KT  33.2F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   13:1|  3.5|| 0.27|| 0.14|| 0.62    0|  0|100

131215/0900Z  69  31005KT  29.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   13:1|  3.5|| 0.27|| 0.14|| 0.62    0|  0|  0

131215/1200Z  72  30007KT  27.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   13:1|  3.5|| 0.27|| 0.14|| 0.62    0|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

[NortheastPAWx]

So coolwx would be a better source than Cobb?

Sucky part here is that coolwx doesn't get data for KUNV.

[mappy]

So coolwx would be a better source than Cobb?

 

i wouldn't pay attention to anything that tries to predict ratios. its why those snow maps (regardless of where they come from) are hardly right. They all have their own ratios/algorithms they are using to "predict" how much snow actually falls. Which is really hard to narrow down exactly.

 

I only look at qpf values, then assume a 10:1 ratio, since that seems to be about where most snow events fall. Then if its higher than 10:1, you are pleasantly surprised!

[Rick G]

That's not what the text data seems to indicate:

 

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

131214/1500Z  51  10007KT  25.4F  SNOW   13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031   13:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0

131214/1800Z  54  10009KT  26.3F  SNOW   13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093   13:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0

131214/2100Z  57  09006KT  29.4F  SNOW   13:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149   13:1|  3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27  100|  0|  0

131215/0000Z  60  10008KT  31.5F SNZRPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.27|| 0.14|| 0.269   13:1|  3.5|| 0.27|| 0.14|| 0.54   38| 12| 50

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

131215/0300Z  63  08006KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057   13:1|  3.5|| 0.27|| 0.14|| 0.60    0|  0|100

131215/0600Z  66  36003KT  33.2F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   13:1|  3.5|| 0.27|| 0.14|| 0.62    0|  0|100

131215/0900Z  69  31005KT  29.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   13:1|  3.5|| 0.27|| 0.14|| 0.62    0|  0|  0

131215/1200Z  72  30007KT  27.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   13:1|  3.5|| 0.27|| 0.14|| 0.62    0|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

is there a header for this? I would like to see what I am looking at.

 

thanks.

[NeffsvilleWx]

I got 0.209 from coolwx's hourly model charts.

 

[mappy]

is there a header for this? I would like to see what I am looking at.

 

thanks.

 

its from Cobb

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=w54

 

you will have to plug in your site, currently I have mine at Westminster, MD