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Central PA/fringes of MD - December 2013 continued

NortheastPAWx

By NortheastPAWx,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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paweather

paweather

Posted
Posted

Gfs nam combo should bring watches down to the state line. Euro will be telling but good trends for all of us so far at 12 z.

I never saw such model consensus the past several runs for a long time. if something fails now, then we should probably go back to the old days of forecasting without computers. :-) and this is the 0z runs.

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted

Here's the 0Z Nam Text output showing the different layers of the atmosphere.  You can see that at Harrisburg (Capital City) it is showing 0.68" of what should be snow with all layers below 0 until the final six hours where 900 and 850 just barely poke above freezing.  This output is a tad more technical and is full of useful detailed meteorological stuff that to this lay person doesn't mean a ton.  But, I have learned how to read the precip and the temps which is really helpful.  Take note that the surface temperature is indicated near the top of the output where is says 2M.  Here is the direct link for this data for the NAM.  It is also available for the GFS.  I will have to check on the URL format for that model.  All you have to do is change the 3-letter Station Identifier in the URL (KCXY for Capital City) for whatever airport you wish.  It works for a lot more sites than some of the others that limit you to major locations like MDT and UNV only.

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KCXY.txt

 

There is a problem displaying the full URL properly.  Click on the link and the full correct URL will appear in the browser's URL area.  Use that URL exactly as it appears, but change the KCXY to anything like KMDT, KRDG, KLNS, KHGR, etc.

 

 

 

Station ID: KCXY

Lat:   40.21 Long:  -76.85                                                       
NAM Model Run:  0Z DEC 13, 2013                                                                                           
                                                                                                                           
Forecast Hours:    0hr    6hr   12hr   18hr   24hr   30hr   36hr   42hr   48hr   54hr   60hr   66hr   72hr   78hr   84hr  
Sfc Prs(mb):    1013.4 1009.2 1010.3 1010.3 1012.5 1013.4 1014.7 1011.8 1006.0  997.3  995.3  995.2  998.3 1001.2 1005.3  
Mean SLP (mb):  1027.2 1023.1 1024.2 1024.0 1026.1 1027.0 1028.4 1025.5 1019.7 1010.8 1008.8 1008.6 1011.6 1014.9 1019.1  
2m agl Tmp (F):   17.5   14.8   14.3   27.7   24.5   23.5   25.2   28.9   25.3   23.6   23.7   30.9   26.7   20.0   15.9  
2m agl Dewpt(F):   5.1    8.5    9.6   21.1   21.1   22.2   24.3   28.1   24.4   22.1   22.1   26.5   23.7   16.2   11.7  
2m agl RH (%):      58     76     81     76     87     95     96     97     96     94     94     84     88     85     83  
10m agl Dir:       246    251    264    262    227     40     78    109     79     43    358    276    274    277    279  
10m agl Spd(kt):     4      8      9     10      4      2      5      9     13     11      6      7     11     11     11  
6hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.10   0.27   0.32   0.07   0.01   0.00   0.00   0.00  
AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.10   0.37   0.68   0.75   0.76   0.76   0.76   0.76  
Sfc CAPE (J/kg):   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0  
Sfc CINH (J/kg):  -0.7    0.0   -0.5   -1.0   -0.3    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   -0.9   -0.3   -0.6    0.0    0.0  
0-3km Hel(J/kg): 314.8  256.0  183.6  104.3  144.4  187.8  295.1  367.5  561.6  824.8  330.4   43.4   55.4  147.9  105.8  
Precip H20 (in):  0.16   0.20   0.29   0.34   0.39   0.35   0.46   0.54   0.63   0.60   0.48   0.32   0.23   0.16   0.25  
Lifted Index©:  21.8   19.9   18.3   20.1   20.4   17.9   19.8   18.1   11.5    7.2    9.1   12.3   18.0   22.1   20.9  
700mb VV(-ub/s):   0.2    0.2    1.6   -0.7   -0.2    1.0    4.2    2.5    7.2   -0.9   -0.4   -0.4    0.5   -1.9   -1.5  
Thk1000-500mb(m)5193.9 5266.9 5292.6 5318.8 5346.3 5352.6 5328.9 5334.5 5388.0 5415.7 5383.9 5361.0 5340.9 5291.0 5266.2  
Thk1000-850mb(m)1250.0 1253.1 1259.8 1269.9 1276.5 1279.6 1279.3 1280.6 1284.7 1291.4 1282.3 1284.8 1276.9 1257.9 1253.1  
Thk850-700mb(m):1461.7 1488.4 1497.8 1500.6 1507.4 1514.8 1504.3 1513.1 1533.1 1545.6 1538.3 1525.9 1511.5 1490.8 1487.3  
SWEAT Index:     161.4  177.7  171.1  160.1  124.4   98.6  143.3  231.9  263.5  253.9   86.6  121.8  135.0  134.3  120.5  
Total Totals Idx  14.5   19.8   19.9   17.9   18.8   23.2   21.5   24.3   35.1   40.5   40.0   32.7   22.8   17.3   20.5  
Frz Hgt(ft amsl)   348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348  
0WetBlbHgt(amsl) -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000   4952  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  
Equil Prs (mb):   1013   1009   1010   1010   1012   1013   1015   1012   1006    997    995    995    998   1001   1005  
Equil Hgt(amsl):   348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    348  
Hail Size(in):    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  
Conv Wind Gust:   16.1   17.6   16.9   15.2   13.2   11.0   10.6   11.3   12.1   51.9    9.9   10.9   13.6   15.4   14.6  
Showalter Index:  23.4   22.0   20.3   22.2   22.1   19.6   20.9   19.9   13.1    8.8   10.3   14.6   20.5   23.6   22.0  
Cap Strength©:-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9  
Storm Dir (deg):   324    319    318    315    315    297    279    254    239    249    285    302    303    312    319  
Storm Spd (kts):    38     41     39     36     31     25     24     27     29     24     23     25     32     35     33  
2m HeatIndex(F):    18     15     14     28     25     24     25     29     25     24     24     31     27     20     16  
2m WindChill(F):    11      3      2     18     19     24     18     20     13     12     16     24     16      7      2  
                                                                                                                           
1000mb GPH (m):     209    177    185    188    203    210    222    200    154     85     69     68     92    116    147  
                                                                                                                           
950mb GPH (m):     609    575    582    592    610    617    627    607    559    489    472    476    500    517    545  
950mb Temp ©:   -8.5   -8.5   -9.3   -6.4   -3.6   -3.2   -3.7   -3.5   -5.1   -5.9   -6.1   -3.3   -3.0   -6.8   -9.2  
950mb Dewpt©:  -18.9  -16.8  -15.9   -9.7   -7.6   -7.8   -7.5   -3.7   -5.6   -6.3   -6.6   -4.4   -5.3   -9.8  -12.4  
950mb RH (%):       43     51     59     78     74     71     75     99     96     97     97     92     84     80     77  
950mb Dir:         264    267    278    272    266    303    132    134     94     64     31    283    285    289    296  
950mb Speed(kt):    21     28     29     17     18      6     11     24     30     25     10     11     26     28     27  
                                                                                                                           
900mb GPH (m):    1025    992   1000   1013   1034   1043   1054   1034    986    917    897    903    925    936    962  
900mb Temp ©:  -12.1  -10.8   -8.2   -7.4   -6.5   -5.4   -4.9   -4.8   -2.6    0.1   -3.2   -4.6   -6.6  -10.3  -10.0  
900mb Dewpt©:  -21.3  -19.1  -15.8  -13.5  -10.7  -10.2   -9.4   -5.3   -2.7    0.1   -3.2   -6.2   -7.6  -12.2  -13.8  
900mb RH (%):       47     51     55     62     72     69     71     97     99    100    100     89     93     86     74  
900mb Dir:         266    281    296    292    280    275    201    160    133    109    165    301    292    298    319  
900mb Speed(kt):    29     41     41     29     24     15     10     28     35     39     10     29     34     36     32  
                                                                                                                           
850mb GPH (m):    1459   1430   1445   1458   1480   1490   1501   1481   1439   1376   1351   1353   1369   1373   1400  
850mb Temp ©:  -13.8  -10.8   -7.4   -7.2   -7.2   -6.1   -6.7   -7.1   -3.0    0.3   -2.3   -3.7   -8.7  -13.1  -12.9  
850mb Dewpt©:  -23.0  -15.9  -17.5  -14.0  -12.0  -11.6  -10.6   -7.8   -3.3    0.3   -2.4   -6.8  -12.6  -17.6  -17.4  
850mb RH (%):       47     67     44     59     68     65     74     95     98    100     99     79     73     69     69  
850mb Dir:         283    293    295    293    290    263    238    179    158    143    261    303    299    311    321  
850mb Speed(kt):    39     49     48     37     26     20     17     22     28     25     20     36     37     37     30  
                                                                                                                           
800mb GPH (m):    1919   1897   1916   1930   1952   1965   1974   1954   1918   1862   1832   1832   1839   1836   1861  
800mb Temp ©:  -15.0  -10.0   -8.9   -8.1   -7.4   -5.7   -8.0   -6.2   -3.5   -0.8   -3.1   -3.9   -7.4  -12.5  -13.1  
800mb Dewpt©:  -17.5  -22.9  -13.5  -11.7  -13.5  -12.2  -10.4   -6.7   -3.9   -0.8   -4.5   -8.7  -17.0  -23.4  -24.8  
800mb RH (%):       82     35     69     75     62     60     83     96     97     99     90     69     47     40     37  
800mb Dir:         290    292    290    288    288    261    252    230    191    183    272    295    283    303    309  
800mb Speed(kt):    47     51     53     46     33     27     23     23     20     21     25     30     38     39     35  
                                                                                                                           
750mb GPH (m):    2405   2392   2413   2429   2454   2468   2474   2458   2429   2376   2343   2340   2342   2330   2355  
750mb Temp ©:  -16.7  -12.2  -10.5  -10.4   -8.6   -7.7   -9.3   -7.2   -3.8   -2.4   -2.7   -5.4   -6.6   -9.6  -10.3  
750mb Dewpt©:  -18.5  -19.2  -14.0  -15.6  -10.9  -13.5  -10.8   -8.0   -4.2   -3.1   -6.1  -12.7  -32.7  -34.3  -28.4  
750mb RH (%):       86     57     76     66     83     63     89     94     97     95     77     57     11     12     22  
750mb Dir:         293    293    290    284    293    262    243    244    216    213    263    284    275    288    300  
750mb Speed(kt):    49     56     54     47     36     32     33     31     29     24     30     30     42     50     48

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EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

Posted
Posted

I feel those watches will come south as well. NAM now falls in line. CTP relies on SREFS, not sure why. 

 

Boom.

 

PAZ033>036-059-063>066-131830-

/O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0010.131214T1000Z-131215T0600Z/

SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-

LANCASTER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...

CHAMBERSBURG...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER

316 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE

SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE

SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY SNOW. SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. A GLAZE OF ICE ALSO

POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE

HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE SNOW

WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS.

* WINDS...LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS

15 TO 25 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW A HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. FOR

THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/CTP OR STAY

TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

$

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted

Boom.

 

PAZ033>036-059-063>066-131830-

/O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0010.131214T1000Z-131215T0600Z/

SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-

LANCASTER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...

CHAMBERSBURG...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER

316 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE

SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE

SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY SNOW. SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. A GLAZE OF ICE ALSO

POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE

HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE SNOW

WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS.

* WINDS...LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS

15 TO 25 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW A HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. FOR

THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/CTP OR STAY

TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

$

 

yes! :snowman:

 

good call Mr. B. Though I think 6-8" is a bit overdone, I would've gone with 4-7" but who knows.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

The new 03Z SREFs took a pretty big swing at getting the very high probs for significant snow (4+ probs) further south to involve pretty much everyone above  the turnpike. CTP has also expanded the watch area to involve the entire CWA. 

 

Threw together a first call map.. wasn't too hard to make for the first two ranges. The vast majority of PA should see at least a 3-6 inch snowfall from this. I tend to think that for the most part the top end on amounts will be about 8 inches, but highlighted a region where some scattered amounts of 9 or 10 inches might show up. Keeping the region within my 6" boundary a bit more narrow than what CTP has for their new snow map. Ultimate track of the low might dictate where precip becomes more broken and where the solid precip shield lingers the longest. Further north might expose southern PA to this while north central sees the heaviest snowfall. Further south could focus heaviest in say, south central PA into the Lower Sus Valley. Tried to keep my map in the middle, folks that end up with the best QPF matched up with the best snow ratios are gonna be who sees 6+. Will have to watch model runs today to make any adjustments. The only regions I really expect mixing to knock things down much is far SW PA and far SE PA, the rest of the area should remain all snow or at least stay all snow for the part of the storm that's going to do the damage. This should be a nice snow event for everyone. 

 

post-1507-0-75608700-1386925241_thumb.pn

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F5TornadoF5

F5TornadoF5

Posted
Posted

The new 03Z SREFs took a pretty big swing at getting the very high probs for significant snow (4+ probs) further south to involve pretty much everyone above  the turnpike. CTP has also expanded the watch area to involve the entire CWA. 

 

Threw together a first call map.. wasn't too hard to make for the first two ranges. The vast majority of PA should see at least a 3-6 inch snowfall from this. I tend to think that for the most part the top end on amounts will be about 8 inches, but highlighted a region where some scattered amounts of 9 or 10 inches might show up. Keeping the region within my 6" boundary a bit more narrow than what CTP has for their new snow map. Ultimate track of the low might dictate where precip becomes more broken and where the solid precip shield lingers the longest. Further north might expose southern PA to this while north central sees the heaviest snowfall. Further south could focus heaviest in say, south central PA into the Lower Sus Valley. Tried to keep my map in the middle, folks that end up with the best QPF matched up with the best snow ratios are gonna be who sees 6+. Will have to watch model runs today to make any adjustments. The only regions I really expect mixing to knock things down much is far SW PA and far SE PA, the rest of the area should remain all snow or at least stay all snow for the part of the storm that's going to do the damage. This should be a nice snow event for everyone. 

 

attachicon.gifSlide1.png

Perfect forecast!

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