Atomixwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Warnings just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just went warned for most of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Agreed - Miller Bs shaft someone, and the trend these past several winters is to shaft UNV/AOO/JST/IPT area. Agree on the Miller B but last year, UNV/AOO had normal snowfall while others did lousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Contrary to what we usually see out of the HPC (WPC, whatever) is quite bullish on accumulations Saturday. This is the HPC's 50% right in the middle of the guidance "best guess" on accumulations from 12z Sat through 12z Sun. Screen Shot 2013-12-13 at 10.54.08 AM.png Here is the 75% map, showing the top quartile of snowfall potential. The light blue is indeed 12-15" EDIT: Might be 10-12" instead...the legend has 3 shades of light blue but the map has only two. Screen Shot 2013-12-13 at 10.54.19 AM.png Even the 25% accumulations show 6-8" across a lot of the area. The HPC has high confidence that this will be a significant, approaching major snowfall across PA. Maps: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?ftype=percentiles&fpd=24&ptype=snow If I understand their method correctly... a map showing 6-8" at 25% means that there is a 75% chance of higher than 6-8" accumulations for that region! wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Agreed - Miller Bs shaft someone, and the trend these past several winters is to shaft UNV/AOO/JST/IPT area. remember too that this system isnt modeled to show any bombing of the coastal low... this likely would reduce the threat of major dry slotting with a weaker energy transfer... some dry slotting will still likely occur but I think too that a weaker energy transfer would also reduce snowfall rates... incredible NWS/HPC/etc going this crazy still 24 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Anyone remember the last time all of CTP was under a winter storm warning at the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This storm is not a true miller B there is not much of a transfer. Mainly a weak low going to our south. I feel my map is in good shape. NWS agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 oh and Winter Storm Warning for you... and for you... and for you... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1132 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT....A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THISWEEKEND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTEDACROSS A WIDE AREA OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE SNOW COULD MIXWITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THELOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-140400-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0010.131214T1000Z-131215T0600Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0008.131214T1000Z-131215T0900Z/WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER1132 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SATURDAYTO 4 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY. SNOW FALL INTENSITIES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED.* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S...TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.* VISIBILITIES...ONE TO TWO MILES SATURDAY MORNING DECREASING TO UNDER ONE MILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.USE EXTREME CAUTION IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL. FOR THE LATEST WEATHERINFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/CTP OR STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHERRADIO.REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICESTATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]...POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET@NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG #CTPWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Like there call would feel better about 4 to 7 though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 oh and Winter Storm Warning for you... and for you... and for you... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1132 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT... So much for a normal weekly Grocery run. all the nut bags will be out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Was the longest EAS message ever. lol. Was listening to the radio and it came on listing all the counties, was like oh ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So much for a normal weekly Grocery run. all the nut bags will be out I'm going to Wegmans and buying as much Mad Elf as I can carry. Oh wait it's PA and you can only get two six packs because this state still pretends we are puritans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I for one think places like york and lancaster should only have an advisory for 2 to 4. Nothing I see implies 5 to 8. Nothing huh? I see plenty of things. WPC/NWS does too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I for one think places like york and lancaster should only have an advisory for 2 to 4. Nothing I see implies 5 to 8. The NAM has 0.93" qpf for LNS. I don't think 5" is unreasonable, with higher amounts in norlanco. I'm still only counting on 3-4, but that's because I prefer to play things conservative regardless of what models say and because no one relies on my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I for one think places like york and lancaster should only have an advisory for 2 to 4. Nothing I see implies 5 to 8. Quite a few runs have given the area 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What ratios are we looking at here around IPT? 10 to 1 or maybe 12 to 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Maybe you should give the NWS a call. The NAM has 0.93" qpf for LNS. I don't think 5" is unreasonable, with higher amounts in norlanco. I'm still only counting on 3-4, but that's because I prefer to play things conservative regardless of what models say and because no one relies on my forecast. Quite a few runs have given the area 6"+ thats why i blocked him last year or the year before that. I only see yorkpa posts if someone quotes him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah I understand that but the trend is not in our favor, speaking of york and lancaster. Just my opinion and we will know the answer tomorrow night. Good Luck all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 thats why i blocked him last year or the year before that. I only see yorkpa posts if someone quotes him Excellent idea. He's also 5 posted too, from last year. He should be about done posting for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm going to Wegmans and buying as much Mad Elf as I can carry. Oh wait it's PA and you can only get two six packs because this state still pretends we are puritans. OH Gosh isn't that the truth! Good ole PA state owned liquor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Snow, mainly after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. 3-7" not a big range or anything. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What ratios are we looking at here around IPT? 10 to 1 or maybe 12 to 1? ...THE MAIN THREAT IS WITH THE SNOW. SLR/S WILL BE NORMAL TO JUST SLIGHTLY FLUFFIER THAN NORMAL AT 12:1 OR 15:1. CTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lol that's what mine says too Zak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Saturday - Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Looks like p&c says 3-5 for everyone under I-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looks like p&c says 3-5 for everyone under I-78 I'm in HBG and at 3-7" now fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm in HBG and at 3-7" now fwiw. mine just changed too: Saturday Snow after 8am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looks like p&c says 3-5 for everyone under I-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 HPC google earth maps. 8" 4" 12" click to enlarge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Those point and clicks are constantly changing, 20 minutes ago it was 2-4, then 3-5, now back to 2-4 the offices are obviously speaking to each other and trying to figure out the best way to approach areas that borderline other offices, re: york for example. I've also noticed that the zone forecasts, point and click and the warning text doesn't always jive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hmmm 2 to 4 ? Feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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