Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 thats my theory! i'll take whatever i can get, however i can get it! jsut freshin up the ground! It's even better on the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 that's when living at 700' comes in handy Oh I know! Heck, towards the end of Tuesday's snow, I was above freezing but rates were heavy enough it still snowed. Wasn't until it started to lightly snow when sleet mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Keep in mind how poorly I did with my last map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 18Z NAM continues consistency with the other models. Looks like it will be snowy Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 One thing I remember from my early Eastern days is, "It snows tomorrow where it snowed yesterday." Essentially meaning in active patterns if the setup is somewhat similar in location or temp guidance you're best off going with what you received earlier. If that holds true, the York to Chambersburg area will score very well while those north of the Turnpike before you get into the mountains will see very little in the way of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Keep in mind how poorly I did with my last map... 20131213snowcast.png Looks like your 6 inch line goes right though my house...I am at the T in Nanticoke. Your thinking is pretty close to what I think, but my degrees are in Computer Science and Health care. I could write a program to fix your line if it was sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Keep in mind how poorly I did with my last map... 20131213snowcast.png Just remember 3 strikes and no more posting maps the rest of this year. Looks good! Maybe the 5" as far north as Liberty. Is the CMC pretty much in agreement with what the Euro is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks reasonable, Mallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Keep in mind how poorly I did with my last map... 20131213snowcast.png You going a bit conservative, Mallow? This was just released from Mount Holly a short time ago. Extrapolating westward, Schuylkill County at least, appears to be in the 6-8 range. CTP doesn't have one out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You going a bit conservative, Mallow? This was just released from Mount Holly a short time ago. Extrapolating westward, Schuylkill County at least, appears to be in the 6-8 range. CTP doesn't have one out yet. StormTotalSnowWebFcst.jpg I little off topic how do you get those snow maps from NWS? in the LSV area. Thanks much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 CMC looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I little off topic how do you get those snow maps from NWS? in the LSV area. Thanks much. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/pema/SnowAmt36hr_Period1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I little off topic how do you get those snow maps from NWS? in the LSV area. Thanks much. They are in different places on the web sites so I just figured I'd give you the links. For State College: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowmaps/index.php?tab=forecast For Mount Holly: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Keep in mind how poorly I did with my last map... 20131213snowcast.png You going a bit conservative, Mallow? This was just released from Mount Holly a short time ago. Extrapolating westward, Schuylkill County at least, appears to be in the 6-8 range. CTP doesn't have one out yet. Lancaster and north looks like it's in the 4-6 range, millersville might be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 They are in different places on the web sites so I just figured I'd give you the links. For State College: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowmaps/index.php?tab=forecast For Mount Holly: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 CTP's map is out now, and the accumulations are slightly less than Mount Holly's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You going a bit conservative, Mallow? Yes. Worried about mixing and ratios (not so much mixing ratios ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 My guess is 2 to 4 regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 CTP map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Shouldn't warnings be out or at least watches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yes looks to move in over night tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Shouldn't warnings be out or at least watches? Anything, iirc, under 6" is a WWA. They tend to be issued 12-18 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nepa snowfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 per the briefing, we will get more than .10 inches of ice as well. NWS Binghamton thinks we will get the mix and totals will be kept down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yes. Worried about mixing and ratios (not so much mixing ratios ) My rule always is that if the 850 low goes north of you in latitude, sleet is going to at least mix in. I would think therefore that most of the state will have some kind of mixing issues, even if it's very late in the event. I'd say NWS's 4-6" call is good for the I-80 down to I-76 corridor. Maybe more like 3-5" around Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 18z runs definitely trended wetter. Clownmaps from GFS show 6-9" for all but extreme SEPA. Still not buying it though. 3-6 seems like a good call for the Altoona-State College-Williamsport corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Good discussion from CTP... dry air will be an issue, but could lead to higher ratios? Have to like the trends at this point overall WITH COLDER AIR ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL PA...MODELS CONTINUE TOFORECAST A PRIMARILY SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...WITH ACHANGEOVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THECWA LATER SAT INTO SAT NGT AS SOME WARMER AIR NOSES IN FROM THESOUTHWEST. 24-HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 6" SEEM LIKELYALONG AND N OF I-80 WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING -3C OR COLDER. SREFALSO SUPPORTS THIS. THOUGH QPF TOTALS OF ABOUT 0.50-0.60 INCHESFORECAST...TOTALS MAY BE HAMPERED BY LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN THELEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE EJECTING OFFSHORE AND THE NRN STREAMTROUGH MOVING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER. THE LACKOF A CLOSED 700/500 MB CIRCULATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LIMIT THEAMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION/LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. BUTDRIER ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE A FLUFFIER HIGHER SNOWTO WATER RATIO WHICH COULD BRING AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER. BUT WITHLONGER DURATION OF EVENT AND SOMEWHAT GRADUAL ACCUMULATIONRATES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE...THOUGH ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS EVENT APPROACHES.FURTHER SOUTH...SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SLEET/FZRAOVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES AS WARM AIR TRIES TO SURGE IN FROMTHE SOUTH. SREF/GEFS AND WPC PROBS SHOW LIGHT ICE AMTS AROUND 0.10MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Should I be worried about the transfer of energy reducing the precip field near the lsv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Should I be worried about the transfer of energy reducing the precip field near the lsv? That has happened more often than I care to remember... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Should I be worried about the transfer of energy reducing the precip field near the lsv? Even back this way, one of the reasons I like 3-6 as a forecast instead of buying in to the higher amounts the models showed today. Still think 2-4" with some mixing is looking good for LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.