pawatch Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Pawatch...we are due for a BIG one brother!!!!1We are way past due!!!Atomixwx Yes it was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 GFS really hasn't been all that good for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 How well does the GFS do with phasing and energy coming from the South. Didn't this have trouble with the pre Thanksgiving storm and it ended up phasing earlier which the GFS didn't show??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This has the makings of a Miller B, where SNE cashes in big time and we all get cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I hope folks realize we have multiple high pressure in Canada with this next event this is just not a rainstorm this is a very significant storm for most of us forget what model shows or region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I hope folks realize we have multiple high pressure in Canada with this next event this is just not a rainstorm this is a very significant storm for most of us forget what model shows or region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ill post this here too before I go to bed, this was from Accuwx forums from a respectable poster Man, I don't think you guys appreciate the evolution of this storm over the last 3-4 days. This is actually really close to being a monster storm, particularly for the interior. There is a bit of 50/50 blocking because of the obnoxious PV. When you look at hours 84-96, if the vort areas could just condense we'd have quite the storm. It eventually all comes together and it bombs out to 968 mb, but that's the potential if it all comes together at the right time. Every day the forecast plots have changed to show something else. Looking forward to see the new wrinkles that tomorrow brings. No one should be worried about not being in the jackpot zone or seeing specific p-types this far out. Lots of things to iron out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro coming in all snow for everyone just judging by the text. QPF isn't really all that impressive (generally 0.3"-0.4" total for most of everyone) but holy crap is it a cold event. All of UNV's 0.41" falls with 2m temps between 16 and 19ºF. IPT is even colder than that, and Sus Valley locations are just a few degrees warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I hope folks realize we have multiple high pressure in Canada with this next event this is just not a rainstorm this is a very significant storm for most of us forget what model shows or region. Ok, I've forgotten the models. Now what? Do I just make up qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Qpf with this storm is gonna be such high ratios there won't need to be more than .4 for a significant event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Qpf with this storm is gonna be such high ratios there won't need to be more than .4 for a significant event.... Is this a prediction or a fact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think you used the number 1,000 for dramatic effect lol. 1,000 days sounds like a lot longer than the couple of years it really is. Example: That seems a helluva lot longer than if he had just put "4 years". "Chuck Noland was here 4 years? Pshht. So was <insert POTUS here>." LOL, true. We had an exact day count on a graphic, which is why I mentioned it. One thousand-something days is much more impactful than saying 3.5 years or whatever it is exactly. Many of the people who watch us wouldn't be sure if that long of a span with no 4" snows is normal or not, whereas thousand something days is automatic in your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think you used the number 1,000 for dramatic effect lol. 1,000 days sounds like a lot longer than the couple of years it really is. Example: That seems a helluva lot longer than if he had just put "4 years". "Chuck Noland was here 4 years? Pshht. So was <insert POTUS here>." LOL, true. We had an exact day count on a graphic, which is why I mentioned it. One thousand-something days is much more impactful than saying 3.5 years or whatever it is exactly. Many of the people who watch us wouldn't be sure if that long of a span with no 4" snows is normal or not, whereas thousand something days is automatic in your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Interesting contrast in temperatures this morning clearly show where there is snowcover...York is at 10, Lancaster is 15, Middletown is at 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Seems like the cold is locked in place, it sure didn't look to me that we go above freezing until maybe Sunday sometime. So yeah, i'm sure the ratio's would be high depending on timing. Seems to me overnights are in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Seems like the cold is locked in place, it sure didn't look to me that we go above freezing until maybe Sunday sometime. So yeah, i'm sure the ratio's would be high depending on timing. Seems to me overnights are in the teens. 20:1 isn't unreasonable in some areas, assuming we get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 20:1 isn't unreasonable in some areas, assuming we get snow. and then you just fire up your leafblower for removal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Fo real. I swept away 11 inches of snow on the 12/19/09 storm with a standard garden variety broom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Seeing that the Euro is the more SE and colder solution should give us hope as the we often like the look of the other models and await the doctors final call every 12 hours. With all of the players coming onto the field for the weekend storm, it sounds like a potential doozy, and at least until 12z runs....i like where we stand on this. Fun to watch (especially at a time that many of us thought winter was going to be far away from these parts. The drive to work was beautiful this morning with snow clinging everywhere. I hope everyone feels the love for the weekend or the 19th storms. Better get a base down to survive the pre christmas warmup.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Interesting contrast in temperatures this morning clearly show where there is snowcover...York is at 10, Lancaster is 15, Middletown is at 26. i think the ASOS at MDT is drunk this morning... I had less snow than the airport and it was 20 at my house... looking other personal stations around the region the airport was the warmest by a few degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 i think the ASOS at MDT is drunk this morning... I had less snow than the airport and it was 20 at my house... looking other personal stations around the region the airport was the warmest by a few degrees I was surprised. I live 15 miles southeast of the airport and I had 14 degrees. I would have thought the airport would have been closer to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 i think the ASOS at MDT is drunk this morning... I had less snow than the airport and it was 20 at my house... looking other personal stations around the region the airport was the warmest by a few degrees I was surprised. I live 15 miles southeast of the airport and I had 14 degrees. I would have thought the airport would have been closer to 20. Haven't we for years questioned the numbers that come from MDT. regardless if its temp, rain or snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Haven't we for years questioned the numbers that come from MDT. regardless if its temp, rain or snowfall. I've always thought they seem low on snowfall...I just assumed they were measuring in the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think they actually shovel some up and dump it into the reactors. What survives is the official measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 i think the ASOS at MDT is drunk this morning... I had less snow than the airport and it was 20 at my house... looking other personal stations around the region the airport was the warmest by a few degrees I had 20 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Does anyone know if the euro models KLNS? and/or does anyone know of free access to euro output for KMDT and KRDG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Does anyone know if the euro models KLNS? and/or does anyone know of free access to euro output for KMDT and KRDG? Yuro LNS from 0Z for weekend: SAT 18Z 14-DEC -6.6 -7.9 1031 71 99 0.02 555 531 SUN 00Z 15-DEC -7.2 -5.1 1027 85 97 0.11 554 533 SUN 06Z 15-DEC -4.4 -1.0 1019 92 92 0.16 554 539 SUN 12Z 15-DEC -2.9 -0.5 1013 94 76 0.08 550 540 SUN 18Z 15-DEC 0.0 -2.5 1011 84 42 0.02 547 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Haven't we for years questioned the numbers that come from MDT. regardless if its temp, rain or snowfall. yea... light southwesterly wind could be moving air from the warmer river to cause it to read higher... rain and snowfall are not as much of an issue as temperatures when the river is influencing and wind because they placed the ASOS close to a flood levy near the river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yuro LNS from 0Z for weekend: SAT 18Z 14-DEC -6.6 -7.9 1031 71 99 0.02 555 531 SUN 00Z 15-DEC -7.2 -5.1 1027 85 97 0.11 554 533 SUN 06Z 15-DEC -4.4 -1.0 1019 92 92 0.16 554 539 SUN 12Z 15-DEC -2.9 -0.5 1013 94 76 0.08 550 540 SUN 18Z 15-DEC 0.0 -2.5 1011 84 42 0.02 547 538 Thanks. just under 0.4". I'm guessing the two numbers after the date are the min and max (in C) for the period? That's about 4.5" for LNS, give or take. Is the data behind a pay wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Thanks. just under 0.4". I'm guessing the two numbers after the date are the min and max (in C) for the period? That's about 4.5" for LNS, give or take. Is the data behind a pay wall? surface temp then 850mb temp 12z run yesterday was wetter LNS SAT 12Z 14-DEC -9.3 -9.1 1033 81 95 0.01 555 530 SAT 18Z 14-DEC -5.7 -8.3 1030 75 97 0.04 554 531 SUN 00Z 15-DEC -6.1 -5.2 1024 88 100 0.14 553 535 SUN 06Z 15-DEC -1.7 -0.5 1012 93 95 0.26 550 541 SUN 12Z 15-DEC -1.1 -0.4 1005 94 75 0.52 543 539 SUN 18Z 15-DEC 0.8 -3.5 1006 85 65 0.06 542 537 I use accuwx pro for the text data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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