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Potential Thanksgiving Event

strongwxnc

By strongwxnc,
in Southeastern States

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

wow very cold here.  22, hope this is setting the stage for some fun and games over the next couple of days.  :snowing:

TUESDAY...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZINGRAIN...AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNINGACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AROUNDDAYBREAK. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INAREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOCHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY NOON...WEDNESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. AS COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE MOUNTAINSBEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AS ANAREA OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. AT LEAST LIGHTSNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINAMOUNTAINS.
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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure I've ever seen what the 6Z GFS is depicting:  Two lows -- one going up the coast and the other going out to sea.  In these situations, there's usually a main low and then a trailing ULL.  If the trailing ULL is close enough to the main low, then there is a moisture feed and the ULL will produce precipitation.  If the main low is too far out ahead, there usually won't be much precip with the trailing system...certainly not a whole new surface low right on the heals of the main low.

 

I guess that solution is possible, but I've never seen it work out that way.  It looks foolish to me.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Well... its still a good bit away. But honestly the over amped phases of the GGEM,NAM,Euro that where being shown yesterday is not realistic outcome. 

 

Prior to yesterdays run where it showed snow stretching from AL western nc eventually tracking up the NE.. That would be a realistic outcome... now that the GFS in sense has joined Euro. Snow from TX> GA> up the NE coast.

 

Also... Considering to there is already a decent Lee side trough already would favor a tighter pressure gradient along the coast eventually be the track of this storm.

 

pmsl.gif?1385299883319

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted 
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html 

If that happened, there would be a total board meltdown due to the "too far south" deal.  I'd love it for CAE though for sure... just unlikely.

 

May I add.. the 18z GEFS ensembles/plumes showed over 1 inch of sleet here (on the high end).  Never experienced that amount of sleet or anything close to what you've spoken of.

Where exactly do you live? I'm guessing up near Newberry Co on the other side of Lake Murray? I could only hope for an inch of sleet :wub:  One thing the models do agree on is the moisture and it sure is needed around here.

BTW.....sleet is perfect for throwing on the catchers gear and riding the sled down the street. (Yes, catchers gear as I'm old and do not appreciate battle wounds as much as I did when I was younger :lol: )

 

That would be total plaster

Indeed it would  ^_^

 

GGEM is a full phasing event but boy does it show a cold T-giving day. Here are the temps at 1pm 11/28:

That is a perfect day for fire, football, friends/family :wub:

 

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

12z NAM has some back end flizzard action to it. The big diff. between the NAM and the GFS is that the GFS has the northern energy screaming ahead of our low. NAM is pretty close but hangs back the energy to come in behind the low. It's still out in NAM la la land...but as I said it looks to me like the NAM is begin to trend towards the GFS vs. it's solutions yesterday. 

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

12z NAM has some back end flizzard action to it. The big diff. between the NAM and the GFS is that the GFS has the northern energy screaming ahead of our low. NAM is pretty close but hangs back the energy to come in behind the low. It's still out in NAM la la land...but as I said it looks to me like the NAM is begin to trend towards the GFS vs. it's solutions yesterday.

That piece of energy diving through TN is an issue, GFS keeps it trucking along over N IN and S MI. Full phasing going on over NC and almost complete by DC. The GFS is going to have to cave sooner or later, hard to beat the Euro/NAM at this range when there similar. In many cases we want phasing, this is an exception. It takes place too far north for anyone in the SE to reap the benefit.

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burgertime

burgertime

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Posted

That piece of energy diving through TN is an issue, GFS keeps it trucking along over N IN and S MI. Full phasing going on over NC and almost complete by DC. The GFS is going to have to cave sooner or later, hard to beat the Euro/NAM at this range when there similar. In many cases we want phasing, this is an exception. It takes place too far north for anyone in the SE to reap the benefit.

 

Yea that northern piece taking it's time is killing us...but If you look at the 18z NAM vs. the 12z it's holding back that southern energy a tad and pushing it further south allowing it to interact with that northern stream. Granted the end result still looks like the Euro in the end, but I just have a feeling we're going to see the NAM start slowing down that southern feature. 12z will tell the tale I suppose. If the GFS surrenders than it's game set match. 

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

That piece of energy diving through TN is an issue, GFS keeps it trucking along over N IN and S MI. Full phasing going on over NC and almost complete by DC. The GFS is going to have to cave sooner or later, hard to beat the Euro/NAM at this range when there similar. In many cases we want phasing, this is an exception. It takes place too far north for anyone in the SE to reap the benefit.

NWS Jacksonville says the GFS is an outlier.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS ARE THE

PREFERRED MODELS FOR THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

ON TUESDAY. THE FARTHER EAST AND MUCH LESS CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION

CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER AND WAS DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST

PACKAGE. AS A RESULT...FORECAST REFINEMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT

FOR A LOW PRESSURE TRACK REMAINING WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST

AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE

TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE LOW MOVING RAPIDLY

NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY MORNING...ACROSS

CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY EVENING...AND FINALLY INTO THE CAROLINAS

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH

INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...ACTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF OUR

ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

It's funny. Usually the northern stream goes too fast. The models expect it to be slower at first and we get our big storm, and then they decide that the northern stream will race out ahead and we get nothing...except for the one time when we need it to do exactly that, and then the northern stream actually slows down. WTF weather?

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burgertime

burgertime

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Posted

It's funny. Usually the northern stream goes too fast. The models expect it to be slower at first and we get our big storm, and then they decide that the northern stream will race out ahead and we get nothing...except for the one time when we need it to do exactly that, and then the northern stream actually slows down. WTF weather?

 

Yep GFS caved and really slowed down that northern energy. 

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

To me the trend is pretty clear...front end ice potential for the escarpment areas of WNC after midnight Monday night until prob noon Tuesday. Secondary surge for Wednesday will be a "wide right".

 

 

The one thing that no one has really mentioned in all of this...with the GFS trending back inland, there are going to be some hefty rainfall totals for the Western and Central Carolinas. Asheville will break their all-time record Tuesday morning.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1054 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY OR MOST OF TOMORROW HAVE BEEN
MADE AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. ARE
STARTING TO LOOK AT THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF A ICE EVENT
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS
STILL COMING IN AND WILL EXAMINE FURTHER. DOES APPEAR FZRA WILL
FALL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY AM. MORE INFORMATION
FORTHCOMING.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Almost .2 falls as either ZR or IP at HKY

I'm still at a loss as to why the models are not showing more cooling at the surface via evaporational cooling. The nam/gfs have temps in the upper 30s and dewpoints below zero late tomorrow afternoon (which is pretty rare even during the strongest of wedges or winter time ahead of a system). The cold/dry air is also pretty deep, at least initially, and  extends up to 925mb. 

 

Yet despite no waa in the boundary layer (easterly flow) and extremely dry dewpoints, the models continue to show the dewpoints increasing  before precip even  starts and then barely having any response at all after precip starts.

For example, the gfs has surface temps around 35 with a dewpoint of around 6 or 7 degrees here at 0z tuesday with similar dry and cold temps up through 925mb. Gfs shows Precip starting around 03z tuesay but the temp only drops a fraction of a degree yet the dewpoints jump from 6 degrees to 21 degrees.

 

I am really having a hard time seeing this happening. If we had warm air advection and much warmer/moist dewpoints just above the surface, I would say it makes sense. But in this case, initially, the cold and dry air extends up pretty high..even up to 925mb or so before warming drastically. Once this warming hits the 950mb level, I would expect temps to rise but until then I see no justification for the drastic increase in dewpoints at the surface before the precip arrives and the lack of temperatures dropping in response to precip starting.

 

It's hard to say they are wrong though since every model keeps showing essentially the same thing as far as surface temps/dewpoints...but  I just can't figure out why there wouldn't be more of a temperature drop over north ga and the carolinas.

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GaWx

GaWx

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Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED[/size]NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA[/size]1054 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2013[/size].UPDATE...[/size]NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY OR MOST OF TOMORROW HAVE BEEN[/size]MADE AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. ARE[/size]STARTING TO LOOK AT THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF A ICE EVENT[/size]ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS[/size]STILL COMING IN AND WILL EXAMINE FURTHER. DOES APPEAR FZRA WILL[/size]FALL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE WARMER AIR[/size]ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY AM. MORE INFORMATION[/size]FORTHCOMING.[/size]

If this were the old, conservative FFC, this FFC discussion would be reason for a little interest. However, now that they're the opposite, there discussions don't excite me much without good model support. The model support for much of any ice anywhere around the Atl-Ath areas isn't there at all. I'm now expecting no zr in Atlanta area. Perhaps there'd be a few ip pellets near the start at most.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

 Lol, your life holds great experiences for you.  You love weather and it will reward your over and over, until you are about done, like Burns.  My hopes spring a new this time, every year,  because it's a crap shoot, no matter what the signs are, and the impossible has happened to me over and over :)  Hell, I saw Larry predict snow for Savannah, and it happened :)  T

 

I'm a long way from done, Mole Man.

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