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The lions end to March banter and discussion


Ginx snewx

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Well Will...it's gone :cry:

STRONG MOIST ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD

WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE LOW 50S WILL MELT AWAY ANY REMNANT

SNOW PACK.

One way or a another, it's inevitable. But fear not, it will return. When the euro and its ensembles start holding onto a big solution, consider it. Still way out in time but heckuva signal.

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I'd be shocked if I was to bare ground in 48 hours. The snow will take a big hit, but there's still 25 inches on the ground right now.

 

Too bad it has to take a big hit though....with the pattern coming up, we probably could have made a run at the March 2001 snow pack.

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I'd be shocked if I was to bare ground in 48 hours. The snow will take a big hit, but there's still 25 inches on the ground right now.

Too bad it has to take a big hit though....with the pattern coming up, we probably could have made a run at the March 2001 snow pack.

LOL yeah no way the hills down there lose all their snow by Wednesday.

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March 2011 was a huge snowpack up here of over 40" below 1000ft, but did SNE peak that winter in February? Everyone had a big pack that winter at some point.

 

 

My snow pack that winter peaked in early February after the Feb 1-2 storm at 38"...though we had a pack over 20" as late as early March that year. The March 5-6 long duration rainstorm did us in. Sliced us down to about 4-6" of crust and then the Mar 10-12 rainstorm finished it off.

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The craziest part of the 00z EURO is as the monster low is crushing the EC @ 240 hours there is another strong shortwave in the southwest with a good trough axis and the 240 hr storm forming into a 50/50....Epic Epic March? 

 

 

Reminds me of the patterns of Mar '58...huge storms just days apart. 1956 similar. Though the upper air pattern is a lot closer to 1958.

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The craziest part of the 00z EURO is as the monster low is crushing the EC @ 240 hours there is another strong shortwave in the southwest with a good trough axis and the 240 hr storm forming into a 50/50....Epic Epic March? 

I think the setup is as good as it can get right now for the storm on the 20th. If that shortwave trough digs any deeper it may avoid phasing with that northern piece of energy too far offshore for anyone's liking.

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I'm surprised at how well defined the low is on the EC ensembles for 8 days out...must be a ton of members clustering just offshore on this thing. But I really won't become interested outside of saying the pattern looks good for another few days.

 

The Mar 16-17 wvae is still on the table...the 00z Euro actually was better for NNE on that one while the GFS was so far south it whiffed even NYC. We'll have to watch that one for a smaller advisory type event if it works out.

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I'd feel really feel very good about this one if I was in SNE or ENE, lol.  Hard not to ride the seasonal trend at this time of year, so my forecast would be for heavy snow across a good portion of SNE and up into NH, maybe southeastern ME.  Northern New England back to NW New England and down into eastern NY/ALB area should be in the perfect spot for another sunny day when that storm hits.  :lol:

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I'm surprised at how well defined the low is on the EC ensembles for 8 days out...must be a ton of members clustering just offshore on this thing. But I really won't become interested outside of saying the pattern looks good for another few days.

The Mar 16-17 wvae is still on the table...the 00z Euro actually was better for NNE on that one while the GFS was so far south it whiffed even NYC. We'll have to watch that one for a smaller advisory type event if it works out.

Did it give us rain?
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