Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Where does the bigger ticket event go on the ECMWF? Edit...daylight time change, I'm not used to it at 230 instead of 130pm yet, lol Looks very similar to the 00z run through 144 hours; that continuity is important for whatever happens there after. It shows a deep couplet between a negative heights in central-eastern Canada, with big blocking in the N Atlantic - meanwhile, strong Pac S/W is diving toward the MV. It's a prelude to an important eastern storm set up being the natural leap there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Well the euro may be further west with the big one. Looks like its headed in the GL when looking at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2013 Author Share Posted March 11, 2013 I was gonna say...congrats to everyone on another fujiwara event later this month.Fujison? Fujisan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 A low heading for the lakes with that frigid arctic high to our north Doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Saturday wave is a bit colder for SNE now on Euro...still better for CNE/NNe, but it tries to redevelop a secondary reflection along the S coast. Would prob hold in the BL cold a little better. So interior hills could get a shot of snow...esp since it would start in the morning with a good antecedent airmass in place. Might go to light rain later in the afternoon before a frigid cold front comes through Sat night. Epping, NH, soccer tournament FTL. I have 3 games this weekend. 2 Sat/ 1 Sun. Guess I'll need to dress in my ski attire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 A low heading for the lakes with that frigid arctic high to our north Doubt it From what I am reading around... the block is to far east based and it allows that to happen... back it up some and it gets denied that access Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Looks like its headed in the GL when looking at 180 It may or may not depict that but it's not likely that will happen. The -NAO is for real and is very westerly based; that strongly correlated to suppressed storm tracks - this is typical of the operational Euro to try and drill lows too far W during -NAO. Think of the Boxing Day storm - for a few runs early on it was in the GL with that, too - of course it lost it altogether like the other runs for a run or two, before ultimately realizing the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Looks like we're getting a front end thump at 192, but it won't be able to hold for the whole storm. Its trying to redevelop a secondary, but it looks a tad too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Wow, its awfully close to staying all frozen in the interior...it would for CNE/NNE. At this time range, it doesn't matter. But the run really looked like a January storm for the airmass it was fighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 The blocking is awesome, but that s/w digs for oil so early...it becomes very amped up. Could be classic euro over amped...but who knows at day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Wow, the ULL closes overhead and buries Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Yea kind of destroys the PNA ridge since it digs the s/w, we'll see, looks like there will be a storm for sure, long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 A low heading for the lakes with that frigid arctic high to our north Doubt it I actually agree with you in this one. It should get close enough to the coast to have a secondary reflection develop near the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 I actually thought SE Canada looked better, it just dug the shortwave too much like you said coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2013 Author Share Posted March 11, 2013 Let's see if we can get Friday to be a big deal, LR will be changed more than Bryces diaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2013 Author Share Posted March 11, 2013 Wow, the ULL closes overhead and buries Maine.Lol it would be different than shorts skiing for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 How much does the Saturday wave give us? Is that like a 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Wow, its awfully close to staying all frozen in the interior...it would for CNE/NNE. At this time range, it doesn't matter. But the run really looked like a January storm for the airmass it was fighting. Agreed! The important element to take away from this run is that it's consistently flagging that period of time for a big deal. Seeing the GFS go mightily in that direction less details also lends credence. Cisco said this morning in his oft' terse mid/extended range that they were waiting to see if any other models trended that way - well ... Looking at the last 3 runs, we saw a huge system with big blue snows for the Appel., with snow over to cold wind swept Nor' easter rains for the I-95 corridor, then the 00z run perfect scenario (never a good sign for a D8 chart), now this fencer job ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 How much does the Saturday wave give us? Is that like a 2-4? Yeah...esp north of the pike, but even you would probably get a couple inches. Still could either way on that one, but it did wind up colder this run vs the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 How much does the Saturday wave give us? Is that like a 2-4? Probably a few for you, 2-4 3-5 for Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Schwoegler snow squalls at the end of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Wow, the ULL closes overhead and buries Maine. Golf season cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 March madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Golf season cancel. Mike may have to practice his short game in his basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Schwoegler snow squalls at the end of the euro. This run pretty much cancels spring fling for the rest of the month...good grief, that 500 setup would be ripe for another bomb after the equinox probably. The CONUS temps look like January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 tough to tell but I think it's good over here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 tough to tell but I think it's good over here? You would probably have to deal with some mid-level crap as the low is trying to transfer from a lakes cutter near DTW to a coastal. But I would think its still decent. It does have that classic warm tongue look into OH/NW PA/ W NY before the coastal gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 tough to tell but I think it's good over here? The parent low warms the mid levels for you, but probably LES on WSW winds after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 You would probably have to deal with some mid-level crap as the low is trying to transfer from a lakes cutter near DTW to a coastal. But I would think its still decent. It does have that classic warm tongue look into OH/NW PA/ W NY before the coastal gets going. yeah forky showed me a map that had above 0c 850mb at 186 hours....then it heads back to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 This run pretty much cancels spring fling for the rest of the month...good grief, that 500 setup would be ripe for another bomb after the equinox probably. The CONUS temps look like January. March as it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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