OSUmetstud Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 gfs ends up cutting somewhat in the end....but the storm signal is definitely there. 12z did a big about face from earlier runs and looked decidely euro like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Me thinks the lead wave is dampened out on the GFS as we get closer. jmho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Me thinks the lead wave is dampened out on the GFS as we get closer. jmho. that's a good possibility...though is it kinda silly to discuss such subtilties at day 7/8. the lead wave actually might keep the main storm from deepening and cutting more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 GFS isn't exactly the EURO like(The way that it still tries to cut the low dosen't make sense and I don't think that happens...), but it cannot be denied that it just took a huge shift towards it. A nice appetizer .25"+ 2-4" event for monday here, followed by the bomb later in the week. Sounds good to me, too bad it's 8 days out... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 What a Spring fling pattern coming up. lol. KURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Wait until Tip sees the end of the run. That's his fetish. Subtropical system about top get fuji'd into SNE. I was gonna say...congrats to everyone on another fujiwara event later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Me thinks the lead wave is dampened out on the GFS as we get closer. jmho. Agreed, but I think it does it's job in making sure the big one dosen't cut. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Wait until Tip sees the end of the run. That's his fetish. Subtropical system about top get fuji'd into SNE. Lmao - spring completely canceled on this 12z GFS solution.... Also, with the NAO that negative and westerly based, there is no way the GFS is going to succeed cutting a system that far west... imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 if this misses me and blasts SNE yet again, there is meltdown potential Nahh no meltdown... I've just come to expect it will hit SNE and if I can gather a few inches somewhere along the line, that'd be great, too. This last storm got to the point where while they had 12-24", I had a full sunny day up here. But maybe I'm getting jaded or something, but it just doesn't bother me like it used to to miss snowstorms. A couple years ago I would've been flippin' sh*t over that last storm, lol. But you can't control it and what comes around goes around. Climo is climo for a reason over time... and SNE geography jutting out there in the Atlantic is prime for some big whoppers. At this point I'm more curious to see if those guys can set any further snowfall records. I mean, they've made it this far...why not crank it up another notch in the historical sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Nahh no meltdown... I've just come to expect it will hit SNE and if I can gather a few inches somewhere along the line, that'd be great, too. This last storm got to the point where while they had 12-24", I had a full sunny day up here. But maybe I'm getting jaded or something, but it just doesn't bother me like it used to to miss snowstorms. A couple years ago I would've been flippin' sh*t over that last storm, lol. But you can't control it and what comes around goes around. Climo is climo for a reason over time... and SNE geography jutting out there in the Atlantic is prime for some big whoppers. At this point I'm more curious to see if those guys can set any further snowfall records. I mean, they've made it this far...why not crank it up another notch in the historical sense. It's a nice payback for the BOS area which really suffered since October 2011. I know it sucks missing a storm...but trust me when I say the last 15 months until early February 2013 were horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Nahh no meltdown... I've just come to expect it will hit SNE and if I can gather a few inches somewhere along the line, that'd be great, too. This last storm got to the point where while they had 12-24", I had a full sunny day up here. But maybe I'm getting jaded or something, but it just doesn't bother me like it used to to miss snowstorms. A couple years ago I would've been flippin' sh*t over that last storm, lol. But you can't control it and what comes around goes around. Climo is climo for a reason over time... and SNE geography jutting out there in the Atlantic is prime for some big whoppers. At this point I'm more curious to see if those guys can set any further snowfall records. I mean, they've made it this far...why not crank it up another notch in the historical sense. Welcome to the club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 GGEM/CMC throws its hat into the ring... actually has probably a near warning criteria over-running solution for SNE with the first wave, then the second wave lifts north and brings warning snows to NNE. By the time it warms up in SNE, pretty much all the precip is done, so that would actually be a solution that could work for everyone, lol.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f156.gifhttp://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f162.gifhttp://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f168.gifhttp://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f174.gifhttp://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 It's a nice payback for the BOS area which really suffered since October 2011. I know it sucks missing a storm...but trust me when I say the last 15 months until early February 2013 were horrific. Oh yeah I mean no one up in NNE can complain after what E.MA endured for a while... that was ridiculous. Nice to see the wealth getting spread around and climo could only let that shaft go so long before donkey punching it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 GGEM/CMC throws its hat into the ring... actually has probably a near warning criteria over-running solution for SNE with the first wave, then the second wave lifts north and brings warning snows to NNE. By the time it warms up in SNE, pretty much all the precip is done, so that would actually be a solution that could work for everyone, lol. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f156.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f162.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f168.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f174.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f180.gif That would be a frigid storm...almost looks like a snow to ice event in interior SNE with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 That would be a frigid storm...almost looks like a snow to ice event in interior SNE with that setup. LOL. When reading the threads here about upcoming events I always have one of Carly Simon 's leading tunes inside my head and it won't leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Mar 31- Apr 1, 1997...25.4" Mar 3-4, 1960.........19.8" Apr 6-7, 1982.........13.3" Mar 19-20, 1956.......13.3" Mar 6-8, 2013.........13.1" Mar 13-14, 1993.......12.8" I might be missing one but these are the ones over a foot I believe. Jives with my (probably inferior) data. I only found 5 more with 10"+: 3/11-13/1939....11.4" 3/19-21/1944....10.8" 3/6-7/1967.....10.8" 3/7-8/1996.....10.4" 3/15-16/1967....10.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 That would be a frigid storm...almost looks like a snow to ice event in interior SNE with that setup. Yeah looks like warning snows to freezing drizzle...the thermal gradient is nuts on that prog. Classic CAD look, too...where like later in the storm it's warmer at 1,700ft at SLK in northern Adirondacks than it is in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Yeah looks like warning snows to freezing drizzle...the thermal gradient is nuts on that prog. Classic CAD look, too...where like later in the storm it's warmer at 1,700ft at SLK in northern Adirondacks than it is in ORH. Its been a while since we had a really cold March storm (outside of the first few days of the month like '09). Mar 16-17, 2007 is the last one I recall...was heavy snow changing to sleet, back to snow before ending...spent almost the whole bulk of the storm barely above 20F. They can happen though obviously. This setup coming up would have potential since the airmass advecting in is fresh arctic air and not a stale polar airmass. Obviously the details will determine if we get a cold storm or not, but the potential is certainly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Highs in the 20s in the interior hills for Thursday? Man, the Euro is freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Highs in the 20s in the interior hills for Thursday? Man, the Euro is freezing.Innies instead of outties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Saturday wave is a bit colder for SNE now on Euro...still better for CNE/NNe, but it tries to redevelop a secondary reflection along the S coast. Would prob hold in the BL cold a little better. So interior hills could get a shot of snow...esp since it would start in the morning with a good antecedent airmass in place. Might go to light rain later in the afternoon before a frigid cold front comes through Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 This run has Will's little clipper system still - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Heh, looks like it's setting up the Day After Tomorrow - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Saturday wave is a bit colder for SNE now on Euro...still better for CNE/NNe, but it tries to redevelop a secondary reflection along the S coast. Would prob hold in the BL cold a little better. So interior hills could get a shot of snow...esp since it would start in the morning with a good antecedent airmass in place. Might go to light rain later in the afternoon before a frigid cold front comes through Sat night. That's mostly snow for you I would think..even Kevin may get some. Tickle south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 That's mostly snow for you I would think..even Kevin may get some. Tickle south. Yeah the airmass is cold to start...in the 20s. Even BOS probably has flakage for a while Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 It has even BOS below freezing for a high on St. Patty's Day...lol. Probably some nasty NW breezes to go with that. Heavy heavy beer to stay warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 That's mostly snow for you I would think..even Kevin may get some. Tickle south. I'm telling ya it will sense the SNE glacier and end up south of that mini-ice age coming down the ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Where does the bigger ticket event go on the ECMWF? Edit...daylight time change, I'm not used to it at 230 instead of 130pm yet, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Lots of tickling south going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Lots of tickling south going on Well the euro may be further west with the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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