SR Airglow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 A lot of outlets have 40s through the weekend here. Hmm. Wow, even down here OKX only has 40 for sunday, and I've noticed they often run warm a degree or two. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 MOS is playing big time catch-up with Thursday too. 40's? Not with 850s -12 to -14C... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Euro has been steady on an advisory event on Sat. Ride My point is many are ripping MOS off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 That's a cold airmass from the GFS for next week too on the 12z run. Colder than previous. That storm is going to be running into a mid-winter airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I hope places in CT get over 100", Its been there winter might as well finish it that way Good point--lord knows they typically struggle more than many. It sure wasn't our winter (you or here). It would be funny if we did an 11th hour run to make a reasonably good seasonal total. That said, that would be cold comfort--if its just going to be melting soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Details are almost meaningless this far out, but 12z GFS keeps areas along and north of CT/MA border just about all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Coooollld. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Good point--lord knows they typically struggle more than many. It sure wasn't our winter (you or here). It would be funny if we did an 11th hour run to make a reasonably good seasonal total. That said, that would be cold comfort--if its just going to be melting soon.The area from ORH to NE CT over to NW Ri is a very good snow area and many winters gets more snow than you. You are too far NW some winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 LOL, this is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Congrats ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 My point is many are ripping MOS off.Dont many media outlets do that? If not majority . Euro keeps hills in 20's Thursday and BOX had 40's last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 The area from ORH to NE CT over to NW Ri is a very good snow area and many winters gets more snow than you. You are too far NW some winters. LOL--I knew you'd rise up to that! You seldomly get more snow than GC--this is one of those years though. Congrats and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Dont many media outlets do that? If not majority . Euro keeps hills in 20's Thursday and BOX had 40's last night It depends. MOS is guidance, but when you have anomalous airmasses...sometimes model 2M temps work better. It all depends on things like mixing and what not so you have to dig deeper. I just think people are overall too warm. I didn't look at NWS. The same for these torch airmasses that come in on WSW winds and MOS has 73 for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 It depends. MOS is guidance, but when you have anomalous airmasses...sometimes model 2M temps work better. It all depends on things like mixing and what not so you have to dig deeper. I just think people are overall too warm. I didn't look at NWS. The same for these torch airmasses that come in on WSW winds and MOS has 73 for BOS.In the spring with the massive adiabatic rates you typically can go over MOS and still not be warm enough. Case in point Saturday. Forecasts had low mid 40's and most places hit 50 or higher. But this AirMass Thursday is balls cold and anyone forecasting off MOS is gonna get severely burned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 LOL--I knew you'd rise up to that! You seldomly get more snow than GC--this is one of those years though. Congrats and enjoy.Well you don't live in the SNE snowbelt though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 LOL, this is great. Congrats ME. Plenty of time left for this to be a KTAN jackpot, Be more then happy to have this one suppressed right in you guys laps down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Plenty of time left for this to be a KTAN jackpot, Be more then happy to have this one suppressed right in you guys laps down there :cough: GGEM :cough: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 :cough: GGEM :cough: You should get your cold looked at, it sounds severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 :cough: GGEM :cough: Have not even given any models much attention since last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Have not even given any models much attention since last week Well it's going to snow in ME in the next 7 days. That's all you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Why were folks saying the GFS was snowy with the 700 mb low over Lake Ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Have not even given any models much attention since last week Same. Before last weeks storm was on the radar I told myself all I needed was one more storm. I got it. 12+ nonetheless. I feel myself getting slowly sucked back in, but not with the same ferocity as a couple weeks ago. That said, another snowy event would certainly be welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Well it's going to snow in ME in the next 7 days. That's all you need to know. Don't care really, Hope it stays in the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Well it's going to snow in ME in the next 7 days. That's all you need to know. He's playing the reverse pysch card.....its no secret that we will be cold the next 7-10 days after this front moves through...its a question of where it snows. Unless you like highs below freezing with bare ground, you should root for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 2 aspects I'm noticing about this GFS solution: One, the heights in the deep SE are compressible... There is a considerable distance between isopleths, and the balanced geostrophic flow is less than 40 kts for the most part over the Penn. of Florida. Heights over MIA are at or lower than 582dm. This is all true prior to the S/W ejecting off the Pacific, through the Rockies, destined to amplify from the MV eastward. This is important because ... Two, there is less ridging building back into the west once that eject is complete. That is a big wild-card. If the GFS happens to be too flat out west around 144 hours, it will not dig the wave as much as it may need to to be accurate, in the east, when then going beyond 144 hours. I have been noticing that the Euro has had more ridging out west on every cycle for those time frames in question. Having said that, a westerly based NAO does not teleconnect well with an inland position out there in time. Regardless of model ... any one that does that needs to correct the orientation of the -NAO, such that it's influence on the circulation over middle latitudes of N/A would allow for that. As is, not likely to happen... Frankly, the best run that fits with all that was that Euro run from a couple clicks back that looked ideal - unfortunately, because that means pain and anguish waiting for either its return, or the circulation to break down and just be wrong. Also, take a look at the 06z NOGAPS - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Why were folks saying the GFS was snowy with the 700 mb low over Lake Ontario? WAA overriding cold dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Why were folks saying the GFS was snowy with the 700 mb low over Lake Ontario? Its basically a SWFE on the GFS...its like mid-winter. Its cold enough to get a cold snowy SWFE on that setup. Who knows if it will actually play out like that, but that is what it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Same. Before last weeks storm was on the radar I told myself all I needed was one more storm. I got it. 12+ nonetheless. I feel myself getting slowly sucked back in, but not with the same ferocity as a couple weeks ago. That said, another snowy event would certainly be welcomed. It is what it is, Obviously mother nature does what she wants like it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 holy Moses ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Phuck, Snow saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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