Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 the euro control which has been even drier than OP Euro for the past day or so had much more qpf up here for 00z..still did the jog of the LOW Se off hatteras though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How much for philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 With regard to the UKMET/GGEM, if you live in southern Virginia, you say those came south. If you live in northern VA, you say those came north. Its like a Rorschach test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Model pbp is always so entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Model pbp is always so entertaining It's like the "who's on first" routine for weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Model pbp is always so entertaining None of it will matter in about 90 mins. Keep your eyes on breaking news in RIC if the euro caves. dt's psychotic break is on tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 With regard to the UKMET/GGEM, if you live in southern Virginia, you say those came south. If you live in northern VA, you say those came north. Its like a Rorschach test. I noticed this yesterday. SE was saying those were shifting south. MA was saying those were coming north. This has been the most entertaining event all winter. Watching DT on the brink of a meltdown has been entertaining too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 None of it will matter in about 90 mins. Keep your eyes on breaking news in RIC if the euro caves. dt's psychotic break is on tilt. Heat generated from that meltdown will cause mixing issues for RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UKMET and CGEM are both to the South at 12z. UKMET came north. And the UKMET is basically in the same place as it was previously. In fact, its area of lowest pressure now extends further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here's my amateur snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 *sigh* From what I see of the GGEM as far as surface low pressure system. Transfer a low to Western NC. The low then generally heads ene and extis just north of the VA/NC. Afterwards is where it diverts from the GFS.. The low pressure system continues in a general eastward progression. Snow would still be heaviest in northn VA and into Maryland area. South side of Virginia would not get much out of this. South East is pretty much all rain. Richmond gets very little snow with this path, Mostly rain followed by MAYBE a couple of inches of snow. GGEM would NOT bring significant snow into BOSTON like the GFS has. But down here in Virginia.. all models seem to be forming a consensus for a Western and Northern VA special extending into Maryland and SE/PA and portions of New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here's my amateur snow map ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Heat generated from that meltdown will cause mixing issues for RIC This is pretty funny. If (and when) the Euro folds in an hour, there's no doubt he'll claim initialization errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ok You'll take your 9-12 with a little rain to start, and like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ok Like I said, amateur. I'm basically taking the NAM and GFS heavily weighted but not in the SNE yet as what I'm basing my forecast off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here's my amateur snow map i actually kinda like how you have the green shade over the areas where it might start as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i actually kinda like how you have the green shade over the areas where it might start as rain. I don't think it's that bad either. Maybe slightly bullish but who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro is very stubborn...usually it dosent fold. I just want a 50-75 N shift which would be an adjustment but not folding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here's my amateur snow map Looks good in terms of totals, although it is def not going to mix as far up in to PA and NJ as you depict, if it ever gets to NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is pretty funny. If (and when) the Euro folds in an hour, there's no doubt he'll claim initialization errors. He'll conveniently spin it and still point out why the euro is right and gfs is wrong. The whole gfs was right for the wrong reasons. His shtick is tiresome. Bottom line is the gfs got the idea 48 hours or so ago and never once let up. Not even a burp. Yea, tossing sne a bone is new but it's not like the gfs didn't have a huge storm already. Block weakened enough to turn up. If the euro even goes half way towards the gfs the the cave is complete. Any system like this will look for every and any reason to make the turn and gain latitude of the coast. Give it a chance and it will do it. It doesn't even need a big door. Just a crack. The Ull is a damn beast with a left turn blinker permanently on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hey NOVA, thx for the map. Do you have an idea as for timelines? Something like: > Tues 8PM light percip starts as a mix east of I95 > Wed 6AM percip changes to all snow west of I95, still mix in DC > Wed 11AM percip strengthens, snow line creeping southeast from DC > Wed 2PM all snow DC area south along I95 up to MD, heavy banding This would help a lot of us weenies to set proper expectations and not freak out if we wake up Wed AM and it's raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You'll take your 9-12 with a little rain to start, and like it! I'm tarping my yard until the rain stops to maximize snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm tarping my yard until the rain stops to maximize snow depth Sprinkle it with dry ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 in others news, i'm probably being a weenie but it's "felt" chilly out the last few days. definitely doesn't have a march feel to the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 40.3F IMBY today for the max and down to 38.6F now according to the nearest Davis. Very impressive for a full-sun day in March. Only 40F at DCA even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Funny if euro held at 12z. Made everyone nervous and then bombed out overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 My current probabilities:100% chance of clouds98% chance of precipitation95% chance of snow80% chance of big globby snow62% chance of a pinger that makes me want to shoot someone12% Ji is happy with the end result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I want 100% globby snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What should i look for on soundings to see the globby growth layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 None of it will matter in about 90 mins. Keep your eyes on breaking news in RIC if the euro caves. dt's psychotic break is on tilt. I really need to visit his fb page, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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