yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The euro ensembles are a bit more progressive then the op...IOW they don't occlude as quick as the operational run. They also aren't as bullish in bringing the s/w southeast through lake Huron like the op run had. So all in all at the surface and aloft, when comparing these features at T+84hrs, the ensemble is a little NE of the op. Those features brought up earlier from HM and others are the nuances that need to be watched. So does the EURO ensembles lead some credence to the GFS idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So does the EURO ensembles lead some credence to the GFS idea? Well not quite. The euro ensembles are still a bit south of the GFS op and also like HM pointed out...the GFS op is not having the s/w near Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Bad translation. It means it's too early to toss one solution over the other. I don't fall in love with the euro op as much as others. Well...a meteorologist has to give some guidance...would you be comfortable going with a GFS/EURO blend at this time? I'm not a meteorologist but it strikes me as improbable that either model has a pure solution at this time but seem to establish reasonable parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 euro ens mean looks better further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 15z sref shows no support for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 euro ens mean looks better further east as in up this way or due east of DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 15z sref shows no support for the euro. SREFs are useless this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 euro ens mean looks better further east Better QPF wise or temp profile wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 euro ens mean looks better further east Phin-land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 this was the 9Z FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well...a meteorologist has to give some guidance...would you be comfortable going with a GFS/EURO blend at this time? I'm not a meteorologist but it strikes me as improbable that either model has a pure solution at this time but seem to establish reasonable parameters. Yeah..probably some sort of blend..I mean as far as a forecasting standpoint goes, at >72hrs out..there isn't a huge reason to lean heavily on one side right now. Of course for those that are right on the edge like DC...that can be a tough pill to swallow, but you have to think that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z won't be telling unless the GFS folds. We'll have to wait for the full package at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 From about Tuesday Night into Thursday Morning we are piling water into the Mid Atlantic shore. I am not an expert on this stuff, esp. for your area in the Chesapeake/Tidewater etc. But that is a long time to be piling water. At least, astronomically, things aren't bad like they were with Sandy. Thanks, HM. Does look like it could be extended piling, but true about tides. We had moderate flooding on the upper western shore btw with Sandy. -Resident coastal flooding weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 as in up this way or due east of DCA? looks a bit better for you.. still a sharp drop to the northeast/east -- your area is like right on the line of the 4-8" which bulged east thru the dc area compared to last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Who cares if the probability maps are computer-generated? The model runs themselves are computer-generated. It is just another product to look at. Sref is just weather porn right now for all of us northern va to northern md. Wish we could just lock that solution in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 My summary: Ec may be on crack-- but this is a minor difference, that perhaps the EC higher skill would note first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 looks a bit better for you.. still a sharp drop to the northeast/east -- your area is like right on the line of the 4-8" which bulged east thru the dc area compared to last night how's it look in my hood-- like ROA to RIC?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Only thing to take away from the 18z NAM through 36 is that the h5 energy is slightly slower in the N Plains and the block is a bit further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 this was the 9Z FWIW too much crop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 looks a bit better for you.. still a sharp drop to the northeast/east -- your area is like right on the line of the 4-8" which bulged east thru the dc area compared to last night K thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 how's it look in my hood-- like ROA to RIC?? pretty good. bullseye is up to the NW of CHO but you're solidly in the 4-8/8-12 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Only thing to take away from the 18z NAM through 36 is that the h5 energy is slightly slower in the N Plains and the block is a bit further west same situation as 6z vs. 12z I never like delays, but 12z didn't seem to hurt so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 My summary: Ec may be on crack-- but this is a minor difference, that perhaps the EC higher skill would note first. It might be on some of Highzenberg's Blue since it's been showing generally the same operational result the last 4 runs. That's a pretty prolonged high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 looks a bit better for you.. still a sharp drop to the northeast/east -- your area is like right on the line of the 4-8" which bulged east thru the dc area compared to last night I was just thinking if qpf didn't increase between runs, that must mean it is a little colder I like hearing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It might be on some of Highzenberg's Blue since it's been showing generally the same operational result the last 4 runs. That's a pretty prolonged high. It has changed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 too much crop? Yeah it's messed up. Fixed here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah it's messed up. Fixed here though. thanks, very nice results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM will be going south some based off of h5... prob 50-70 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM will be going south some based off of h5... prob 50-70 miles or so a little, but that could change later in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM will be going south some based off of h5... prob 50-70 miles or so but a heck of a lot more moisture at hour 57 compared to 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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