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earthlight

Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

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He also said 36 inches could fall in NYC the NIGHT BEFORE the southern NE blizzard back in January.

He honestly is horrible he rattles off some cloud types then proceeds to show future cast maps that never match his actual forecast. If it doesn't match you're forecast why show it. He does it everyday no matter how big the discrepancy . The one he just showed had less then inch for most of the area for the weekend storm.

I like channel 7 news best of local stations for actual news and lee and Jeff. Bill and Amy are tv personalities.

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Bill Evans who is normally bullish just said 1-2 inches for the weekend

Craig Allen is also saying 1-2 inches area wide Saturday afternoon/night

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The gfs shows 1-3....lee goldberg and evans are

from the same station using the same forecasts

This is a 1-3 event for most in jersey maybe 2-4 at best

Well, that's it ... Next 36 to 48 hrs mean jack...1-3 it is.

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JB says 20-1 to 30-1 ratios with this....LOL[/quote

Joe Cioffi mentioning 15-1. May snow in the single digits at night.

Joe Cioffi does a great job keeping things updated on facebook and his website...for free no less...you can leave him a tip if you like.

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Paul Dorian going with 2-5 for NYC right now.

Larry Cosgrove:

Trenton 2-3"

NYC 3-5"

Nassau 4-7"

Suffolk and CT points along the sound 7 - 9"

Hartford 4-8"

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I'm actually concerned that TWC might be right; the temps the past two days have been warmer than forecasted.

TWC gets too much slack in my opinion, they have done a really nice job this winter, especially during the blizzard fiasco.

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So AW has western Nassau down for 34F and 1-3"; the NWS for 30F and 3-4"; and TWC for 37F and less than an inch. Good to see such agreement!

any warm temps would be early on, once the winds crank temps will plummet

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AW and TWC both don't buy into higher possible totals, each saying 1-3" for the City.

it's not a bad call right now, can always up to 2-4 or even 3-6 tonight or tomorrow am

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Bill Evans at 1220 said 1 inch at the park out of this .

1" seems low to me. I'm thinking 2" in Central Park given the developing system's dynamics, forecast track (considering the spread among the guidance), and qpf over the past two model cycles. A 1"-3" range probably isn't unreasonable for the City, though I think a 2"4" one might be a little better, as I suspect amounts in the 2"-3" range will be more common in the City than 1"-2" amounts. Furthermore, as a 1" figure would probably depend on low ratios (perhaps on the order of 8:1) and/or a reduction in qpf from what is forecast on most of the guidance, I suspect that there's probably a little more upside potential than downside potential e.g., if the storm develops a little more quickly than forecast.

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1" seems low to me. I'm thinking 2" in Central Park given the developing system's dynamics, forecast track (considering the spread among the guidance), and qpf over the past two model cycles. A 1"-3" range probably isn't unreasonable for the City, though I think a 2"4" one might be a little better, as I suspect amounts in the 2"-3" range will be more common in the City than 1"-2" amounts. Furthermore, as a 1" figure would probably depend on low ratios (perhaps on the order of 8:1) and/or a reduction in qpf from what is forecast on most of the guidance, I suspect that there's probably a little more upside potential than downside potential e.g., if the storm develops a little more quickly than forecast.

Not to mention any shift of the Norlun, which can be very localized 15-20 miles wide ( and in many cases less) but if it parks over  you you can back looking at Lakes type hourly rates. This is a potentially volatile situation. Im more than ok going with 2-4 based .20-.30 QPF with potential for more from NE NJ on east ( Including NYC metro)

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I think there is 2 just with the initial push w that strong of an h5 look .

Then I think the models need to resolve the mesoscale feature placement as that's prob 2 plus .

There will be a rip off zone. Someone may be happy while others are screaming bust.

Happens all the time.

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I think there is 2 just with the initial push w that strong of an h5 look .

Then I think the models need to resolve the mesoscale feature placement as that's prob 2 plus .

There will be a rip off zone. Someone may be happy while others are screaming bust.

Happens all the time.

I think that's elevated even more with this one.  Could see a decent swath getting less than 2 inches while some lucky isolated areas get 6-8.  Tantrum incoming if I get screwed.

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The Weather Channel was, in another age, a pioneering, innovative repository of weather information like never seen anywhere before. Every on camera met knew far more meteorology than anyone you would ever see on a local broadcast. I do understand that the organization continues to employ some exceptional people; especially behind the scenes; but as for some of their on camera mets...well, I could get better meteorological advice from drunks in the gutter.

Her name is Kait and she's hot!! But less then an inch? That's just irresponsible. 2" is the absolute low end. With all the drifting I doubt the zoo keeper reports less the 4"

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...But less then an inch? That's just irresponsible. 2" is the absolute low end. With all the drifting I doubt the zoo keeper reports less the 4"

Even the NWS minimum snowfall product shows 1" for Central Park:

 

NWS_Minimum_Forecast_02142015.jpg

 

It's these kinds of almost flippant numbers that are thrown out on the air that make forecasters look bad when, in fact, many are very good (we see many of them here, at NWS, and elsewhere).

 

One funny anecdote from back on January 3. I was at the dentist's office on January 3 for a teeth cleaning. Channel 12 (local TV) was playing and there was a radar image shown onscreen when the weather report came on. The forecaster said something along the lines that the rain had finished falling and there would now be a dry period. Meanwhile, the radar showed an area of moderate to heavy rain (this was before Winter 2014-15 awakened after having gone into hibernation in December, so one was dealing with rain) moving toward the area just to the south and west of the Hudson River.

 

My comment to the hygienist was that he appeared to be reciting a memorized script that was out of synch with the radar and what was happening. She stated that "they're usually wrong." About 20 minutes later, a downpour had arrived.

 

As for the zookeeper, the report could state: "Trace. Blowing snow, but no actual measurement. Too windy & cold." ;)

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Her name is Kait and she's hot!! But less then an inch? That's just irresponsible. 2" is the absolute low end. With all the drifting I doubt the zoo keeper reports less the 4"

 

Yes she is smokin hot!! I try to watch her lol

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Guest Pamela

 

As for the zookeeper, the report could state: "Trace. Blowing snow, but no actual measurement. Too windy & cold." ;)

 

At the cooperative station in Centerport on Long Island (Vanderbilt Museum)...the actual report had written on it "no measurement due to snow" after the Blizzard of '78. 

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At the cooperative station in Centerport on Long Island (Vanderbilt Museum)...the actual report had written on it "no measurement due to snow" after the Blizzard of '78.

The Vanderbilt mansion is a possible wedding venue for my fiance and I. I'll have to scratch that off the list now :-) lol

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At the cooperative station in Centerport on Long Island (Vanderbilt Museum)...the actual report had written on it "no measurement due to snow" after the Blizzard of '78. 

Great find, Pamela.

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Guest Pamela

Great find, Pamela.

 

Thnxs.  I have to credit NorthShoreWx...I recall him making a post about it years ago.  I may not have had the exact thing on the quote word for word, but that was the gist of it.

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