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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


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Larry Cosgrove a few minutes ago:

500MB vorticity maximum very near Lewes DE. Storm fragmented as promised with its fast jump over the Appalachian Mountains. Regrouping phase will take the comma head through NYC/LI into New England and the Maritime Provinces with best snow chances.

Moral of the story: until the storm is through, don't declare it a bust. Especially when you are not a professional

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Larry Cosgrove a few minutes ago:

500MB vorticity maximum very near Lewes DE. Storm fragmented as promised with its fast jump over the Appalachian Mountains. Regrouping phase will take the comma head through NYC/LI into New England and the Maritime Provinces with best snow chances.

Moral of the story: until the storm is through, don't declare it a bust. Especially when you are not a professional

 

I'm not a professional met... but I STRONGLY disagree.  This one is cooked for NYC. 

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He also seems like a jerk from what I could gather from his posts.

 

High bust potential with the last 2 storms and the other 2 had the precip but the mixing timing was difficult.  Been a heck of a busy month.

 

the 4 - 8 inches amounts to be fair occurred about 30 - 40 miles southwest of NYC metro with the inverted trough enhancement.  Im about 38 miles from Manhattan and received 6 inches.  Was in the band of mod to hvy snow from about 10PM to 4AM

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That was March 2001, not 1978.

 

It may have been this post made on Eastern by you in 2008 that was etched in my memory that caused me to err...

 

"The Vanderbilt record is spotty. It wasn't kept on days when the museum was closed and several big snowstorms weren't recorded. January 1978 is missing, but someone bothered to report 15" for February 1978, spread over 3 days!

This is a copy of the observers sheet for March 2001 ... it dramatically illustrates the problem"

 

(You then link to the March 2001 Vanderbilt observer's form)

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I know, which partly concerns me. This winter, they've actually been . . . dare I say it . . . Good.

The main reason why their amounts have been closer to reality is because when the models change, they are changing their amounts. There's many Mets and outlets (including the NWS at times) who do go by the models, however after the forecast is made, have a tendency to "stick to their guns", not wanting to really back off. While I don't like TWC's approach to many things weather, these adjustments are really necessary, since committing to a forecast which was basically due to the models being bullish and then not changing it after they back off big time really doesn't make much sense.....it's not like a relationship where the weather models are looking for unwavering commitment

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Looks like DT will be changing his forecast map. He conceited that nyc may see decent snows on Tuesday after the euro came out. I'm guessing he'll wait until after the 0z runs are all done tonight/early tommorrow morning before he changes the snowfall prediction map

His new map is bullish-has the 6 inch line right around NYC and 10 down near Balt-DC

-

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I don't think that's such a bad call since it's a moisture laden system running into a cold airmass, but the prospect of some confluence does scare me a bit where we are.

 

I'd feel comfortable with a 4-5 inch expectation, but I'm not sure about anything around 8 inches.  Might be a bit too bullish there.

Who knows.  This could be our overperformer of the winter the way everything else has gone bust!

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