stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 its been so long since the NAM destroyed us. Whats the equation again? NAM QPF/2 + 2 degrees(modeledsurfacetemp)? NAM QPF X .40 = actual QPF Temp formula is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 you're going to jump all over me, but that surface is on fire still not that there isn't snow, it's just that a fair % qpf would be wasted verbatim this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 im not on board till zwyts gives the green light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Soundings should be a bundle of joy. only place below freezing in md is garrett county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 you're going to jump all over me, but that surface is on fire still not that there isn't snow, it's just that a fair % qpf would be wasted verbatim this run Yes, but we get the advantage of good rates and night time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 you're going to jump all over me, but that surface is on fire still not that there isn't snow, it's just that a fair % qpf would be wasted verbatim this run just look on the bright side. Nobody can tell you're crying when your walking in the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's in the early morning hours. We don't have sun angle to worry about, and rates should help overcome and lingering surface warmth. I would like a little more cold air, but this is still the best run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yes, but we get the advantage of good rates and night time if the gfs keeps it up @ 12z, then it's time to start freaking out about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Soundings should be a bundle of joy. only place below freezing in md is garrett county. namfrzline.JPG we need the blue line to phase with the blue blob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 you're going to jump all over me, but that surface is on fire still not that there isn't snow, it's just that a fair % qpf would be wasted verbatim this run It's a very legitimate concern but we all said give us the QPF and we will worry about the temps closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 BOOM...just like the GFS...nice thump of precip...of course thermals aren't optimal Torchy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 you're going to jump all over me, but that surface is on fire still not that there isn't snow, it's just that a fair % qpf would be wasted verbatim this run Heavy rain is better than no rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 if the gfs keeps it up @ 12z, then it's time to start freaking out about temps. Its likely because of the 850 low track... it tracks basically right over us. Get that SE just a lil and the temps will fall a few more degres Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yes, but we get the advantage of good rates and night time Nighttime only matters if its cold, or cool..... or not torchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Heavy rain is better than no rain I am waiting for Howard to chime in on how we lower the temps, although from his previous posts he seems to be leaning the other way this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nighttime only matters if its cold, or cool..... or not torchy 34/35 isn't torchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Soundings should be a bundle of joy. only place below freezing in md is garrett county. namfrzline.JPG Has the Commutegeddon look to it. Heavy snow at 33-35 Degrees. ZWYTS mentioned it before. We'd need 1/2 mile visibility type rates for this thing to accumulate. That's the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Its likely because of the 850 low track... it tracks basically right over us. Get that SE just a lil and the temps will fall a few more degres nam is backing off it's earlier wacked out solutions. GFS will come in further se and prob not touch ne except for the cape maybe. We need the vort jamming like the nam but a more wsw-ene track of the whole thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Does anyone actually have a forecasted sounding? If we're below freezing from 950 or 975 on up, then 33-35F at the surface is not much of a problem. If we're above freezing to 925 or anywhere higher, that's naso good. Based on that one posted chart with thicknesses, the 1320m critical sfc-850 thickness was well SE of our area. That suggests the warm layer might be fairly shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 34/35 isn't torchy NAM @ 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 well, if we gotta waste early precip we seem to have some to spare. I just want a 2-4 for god sakes. I don't care if it's mashed potatoes and mud at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Stop worrying about what happens northeast of us and just worry about us getting some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM @ 63 and 3 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Thanks H2O...incredibly close to isothermal from 875/900-ish down to 950. Surface looks like 3-4C? That's not 33-35F. That sort of detail shouldn't be worried about at this point, but that's probably rain verbatim however incredibly close to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 i just want to make sure Kevin Wood does not get left out His snowpack has already compacted to 43" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol. The NAM is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 and 3 hours later Cold enough, but also looks like precip is over. I think it's fairly clear that if we get snow, it's going to be light-mod rain turning into a fast, short-duration heavy thump of snow with slightly above freezing surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 im not on board till zwyts gives the green light Why would I do that based on a bad model in its bad range? This forum is incorrigible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Thanks H2O...incredibly close to isothermal from 875/900-ish down to 950. Surface looks like 3-4C? That's not 33-35F. That sort of detail shouldn't be worried about at this point, but that's probably rain verbatim however incredibly close to snow. It's weird to be talking about rain so much. 14 out of 15 similar setups would be snow no problem during this time of year. Luckily we mostly battling the surface on up a little. It's going to be all snow at some level overhead. And we've seen temps shave a few degrees many times leading in. It's a freekin nailbiter though. Can't deny that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Stop worrying about what happens northeast of us and just worry about us getting some snow. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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