winter_warlock Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 06z is an off run i wait til 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 06z is an off run i wait til 12z Same here. I know many will claim that the verification of the off runs are close to the major ones but I still take them with a grain of salt. Maybe it's just my prejudice from years past where they were more apt to show screwy and off solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On a positive note the GFS clown maps for the 06Z do show a 2 inch snowfall from DC north into southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Anything is possible at this point: NAM = rain GFS = rain to snow (maybe 1-3 in DC area if lucky) EURO = snow flurries And once again it is maddening with only 48 hours to go. The main thing I am watching for today is how the different models handle the L development off NC - we need a perfect placement for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 6z NAM was a move in the right direction from previous NAM runs move the NAM vort 75 miles south and it looks like one of the decent GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 03 SREFS were again wetter with a more up the coast look than the 21z run. I think there's more evidence in the camp against suppressed than there is for it. Latest SREFS are out in about 15-20 minutes. Will be interested to see what they look like along with the latest NAM. We are getting within the 48-60 window, so I don't think we can summarily dismiss any model at this point, including the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 03 SREFS were again wetter with a more up the coast look than the 21z run. I think there's more evidence in the camp against suppressed than there is for it. Latest SREFS are out in about 15-20 minutes. Will be interested to see what they look like along with the latest NAM. We are getting within the 48-60 window, so I don't think we can summarily dismiss any model at this point, including the NAM. 9z got dryer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 03 SREFS were again wetter with a more up the coast look than the 21z run. I think there's more evidence in the camp against suppressed than there is for it. Latest SREFS are out in about 15-20 minutes. Will be interested to see what they look like along with the latest NAM. We are getting within the 48-60 window, so I don't think we can summarily dismiss any model at this point, including the NAM. With the NAM having a sharp SW and vort on steroids if it does come around to the GFS idea of it's placement I think the potential for overcoming the BL and surface temp issue might be taken care of. I have a feeling the NAM will finally end up with a similar solution as the GFS on the placement but I do have to wonder if we will see it as robust at 500's as we are seeing now. Even though we may not see much from this it has been an enjoyable storm to follow on the models for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now is the time to pay close attn to temp trends too. Unless something changes irt hp to our north, the only thing that can save us is a deepening 850 at the right time and spot. Weaker trends with the vort and lp should make us worry a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM thru 21 essentially looks the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 At 24 I'm sure Bob could correct me but looks as tho NAM is much wetter with precip across TX comparing 6z to 12z don't know if it has any implications downstream however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 In a few hours might have to put storm in quotes like v-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 H5 looks to be in the same spot at 33 hr 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 In a few hours might have to put storm in quotes like v-day. much better than Nemo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think what we wanna see is a strong vort to our south with the main low just off the SE VA coast...that way we can potentially get into the deformation zone of the upper level low.thats how we get our snow in this set-up..I like the look on the NAM with the heavy precip in TX and OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 H5 looks to be in the same spot at 33 hr 12z It's a hair quicker with a little less ridging out in front of it but all in all it has a very similar look with only subtle changes. With less ridging I have to wonder if we see a slight adjustment once again to the south and east when it comes through our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 And at 39 the vort at 500 instead of being over north central OK is now down on the border of northeastern TX and southern OK so at least it's a little south comparing 6z to 12z mind you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Doubt really it will do much, but hopefully these 50-100 mile nudges SW of the h5 vort will help us in the long run... like 42 shows (also a lil stronger) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 42 hr confirms it for me def a good but further south at 500 also pops a 1012 mb low In southern MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 In a few hours might have to put storm in quotes like v-day. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 In a few hours might have to put storm in quotes like v-day. well you had to go and make a thread and jinx it... way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 42 hr confirms it for me def a good but further south at 500 also pops a 1012 mb low In southern MS Tracks due NE from there though...though H5 at 48 hr is still a positive tilt trough.Itll probably be a little south of previous runs, but I dont think a lot...either way, good. Its the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Better defined SLP shows up at 48 with a better precip orientation it would appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 At 51 on the NAM looks really close to hour 63 on the 0z GFS. Definitely stronger than the 6z GFS at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm not sure it's a terrible/bad thing so far that the vort is a little south...looks it's starting to track NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm not sure it's a terrible/bad thing so far that the vort is a little south...looks it's starting to track NE thats a shock. The 84 hour NAM may not verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 With h5 vort being a little south tho at 51 if you look at the surface 850 line it actually has it south with it over my head where you guys up north are even more clear of that dreaded line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Better precip shield at 57... and the SLP is about 75 miles SE compared to 6z at the same time - 12z is in extreme SW VA while 06z was in NE KY... 850s are a lil better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm not sure I implied that. Anyway, precip sheild is definintely south so far..should start creeping NE thats a shock. The 84 hour NAM may not verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Trough neutral or slightly negative at 54..Obviously still gonna pose some rain and mixing problems, but thats fine..Its slowly trending to a more SE solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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