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Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

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Yeah 6" in the valley in western mass on the gfs...yikes. I get how it moved west slightly but it barely budged. The EC did move east but that barely budged and has been consistent. I would still go with a 20-28" forecast here, I honestly don't think we get less than 20".

 

Yeah, a little underdone perhaps.  I'm already into moderate snow w/ nice coating in the N end of valley.  If it snows just at this rate I would be over 6" before the heavy stuff was progged to move in. .

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15Z Update on my TrendCast:

 

Boston Weather Progression:  Light Snow from now through 02Z, then heavy snow will begin from 09/03Z to 09/14Z.  Snow rates will be around .2"/hr til 03Z, then increase to 1.5" to 1.7"/hr til 14Z.  Accumulations of 17-20" possible during this time frame.  Visibilities will be 1-2 miles now, then after 00Z drop below one mile, with winds 08020G30-35 til 02Z, then increase NE at 30G40-45Kts.

 

Providence Weather Progression:  Light snow from now until 20Z, then snow increasing rapidly from 20Z to 13Z.  Snow rates will be around .3".hr til 20Z, then increase to 1.1 to 1.9"/hr, peaking up to 2.5 to 2.8"/hr from 02Z to 09Z.  Accumulations of 19-22" possible during this timeframe.  Winds will be NE 20G30-35Kts til 04Z, then NE at 27G41Kts til 07Z.

 

Refershed all new cities:  http://smartwxmodel.net/MA.htm

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You can already get an idea of where the heaviest banding is likely to setup...can;t completely rule out banding as far back as central MA into central CT but the fronto map is already shaping up as a beauty

 

sfnt.gif?1360338863576

 

You wouldn't want to explain that would you?  Sorry, just trying to follow along quietly.

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Messenger and Phil are starting to get that creepy, subtle excitement for a cc jackpot lol

They did jackpot in 2005 (January) but I recall you saying how much of a great storm it ws for you. Unless you just want to jackpot. That thinking leads to a nearly 100% chance of disappointment.

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Nice to see everything coming into a good consensus. Euro moved east at 00z... GFS moved west at 12z. Truth is somewhere inbetween.

 

The trend today as been a track outside of the BM and a later capture/stall east of ACK as opposed to south of MVY. That puts the jackpot zone from CT (which was unlikely from the get go) to E Mass with the 24"+ potential. 

 

I like Foxborough to Taunton for the super weenie totals. 

:weenie:

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You wouldn't want to explain that would you?  Sorry, just trying to follow along quietly.

 

Frontogenesis basically measures the change in temperature over a period of time as well as distance.  If this case we are seeing solid red lines which indicates that the temperature gradient (change in temperature) is increasing with time.  This is indicative that the coastal front associated with this system is strengthening or a new one could perhaps form (if there isn't one already).  The more contours you have = greater temperature gradient over a given time/distance = the stronger the lift associated with the front = heavier the snowfall rates.

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