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Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

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Thunder-snow will probably be most frequent around 06z (0100h Sat) in the BOS-ORH-PVD-HFD-ISP regions. The deformation zone will be similar and I am down for 30-40 inch snowfall totals in much of the region, feel that this storm has near-perfect dynamics to produce maximum possible totals. Mixing issues southeast of a BOS-PVD-Groton CT -ISP line otherwise 30 inches snow could extend to Cape and islands (8-15 inches for them, mostly after low passes benchmark).

 

What's the state (MA, CT, RI, NH, ME) record for storm snowfalls? Some of those could be threatened. Some measurements may of course become suspect due to drifting but would not be surprised if 30-35 inch NWS obs equate to 45-50 inch max co-op obs, not totally familiar with sweet spots there but would guess near Framingham? Or into higher parts of northeast CT.

 

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If Fairfield County jackpots... and Boston gets like 12" or 14"... Scooter may quit weather for life. 

I do not think that is the case, the NAM is spot on with 12z euro totals down here, the euro had 2.5+ just what the nam shows here............king/eta............take it to the bank

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Yeah--I'm okay with it.  Not as good as you for sure, but 1.75"+ with at least reasonable ratios puts me at 18" for a starting point.

 

Still a good hit for this area verbatim. Ratios would definitely help us out and with 1.75-2" of QPF that's a solid 20-25" storm and maybe a little more for some spots if the NAM has its way.

 

The 700 mb deformation signal is very strong out this way, which should lead to a nice powder death band.

 

Not sure I buy the really early phase on this run that clobbers NJ with > 4" of QPF as I think it may be a bit overdone. I'm thinking something in between the NAM and GFS will be closer to reality. GFS may be a bit too progressive, NAM a bit too amped.

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Its a good tool...esp when it has support from other mesos like the RGEM and SREF...but those models are a bit east which does lend some support to the notion that this is another over-amped NAM solution....we saw it at 12z, then it ticked back SE at 18z, now back NW at 00z....we'll see oscillations depending on how it is handling the convection...but you'd like to see some other mesos get on board to jump on the NAM train....so I'm not ready quite yet to go this amped.

 

Let alone accept, what is that... Atlantic City?  as the qpf max!   :lmao: 

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