CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Look at the winds at H5 and there is the reason for a death band near NYC. Winds are converging..AKA frontogenesis. Now where does that set up for real? No doubt. With the stall and that frontogenesis there is going to be a death band. 3 feet is possible under said band I think. One old-school kind of rule of thumb I like to use for finding strongest frontogenesis on the NW flanks of the 850/700 lows is that the faster the lows are deepening the stronger the banding/frontogenesis. In Boxing Day we had those lows close off and mature so early even though we had a good "track" the storm started sucking northeast of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ratios are not determined by temperatures.....considering wind speed, they won't be much more than 10:1 good point, but who cares, I'm still getting 20"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 it's negligible. pym is 0.03" more Yeah. Just ridiculous output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 LGA loses half their qpf to taint. Pellet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Pretty insistent on a little max in PYM county, but no doubt with some taint. Pretty epic hit, now maybe becoming nearly an I95 paralyzer. There's a little 3" orange dot over your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 LGA loses half their qpf to taint. Pellet fest. Yeah they're playing with fire on the NAM. The Euro was MUCH colder at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 No doubt. With the stall and that frontogenesis there is going to be a death band. 3 feet is possible under said band I think. One old-school kind of rule of thumb I like to use for finding strongest frontogenesis on the NW flanks of the 850/700 lows is that the faster the lows are deepening the stronger the banding/frontogenesis. In Boxing Day we had those lows close off and mature so early even though we had a good "track" the storm started sucking northeast of NYC. Yeah agree. There are two bands I think along with a good CCB. Low level fronto from like 950-850 that smoked ern/SE MA esp and mid level stuff near you and west. It all depends on where the lows go. GFS actually brought the mid level stuff here..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Liking at a call of at least 24" possibly 30+...this is going to be a monster storm for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z Saturday has sustained 010 at 51 at BOS in a howling blizzard per nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 4km NAM shows 8 inches of QPF just SW of here lol Yes, Woodbury, CT- where my folks are. I left from there this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Boy we sure would have one heck of a storm coming with all that moisture coming up from the Southeast.........even without the energy from the Midwest!!! Scary to think that this image (while sexy) is only a 6 compared to what it will look like in the future. that has the look of a Miller A more than hybrid A/B any NAM init issues? the 9" qpf over NJ is hard to accept... 18z was similar but not to this extent... is this skewed left chasing convection, or is this a real trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 BTW, north shore (maybe BOS) may get a 3-5" boost from OES/CF enhancement. Don't forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah agree. There are two bands I think along with a good CCB. Low level fronto from like 950-850 that smoked ern/SE MA esp and mid level stuff near you and west. It all depends on where the lows go. GFS actually brought the mid level stuff here..lol. Yup. It may wind up looking like one giant fire hose too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Is the 0z rgem out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Liking at a call of at least 24" possibly 30+...this is going to be a monster storm for all For who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yup. It may wind up looking like one giant fire hose too. I'm actually thinking it could too. Not every storm has a two QPF max...IE 4/1/97. That had a firehose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 For who? Us...I think we will get in some good banding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RPM is bonkers. What a weenie model..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm actually thinking it could too. Not every storm has a two QPF max...IE 4/1/97. That had a firehose. Almost like a giant slope of frontogenesis from the crazy forcing at the top of the BL near SE Mass and a sloped frontal zone across the rest of the region all under a beautiful (and stalled) coupled jet streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Look at the winds at H5 and there is the reason for a death band near NYC. Winds are converging..AKA frontogenesis. Now where does that set up for real? Doesn't the best frontogenesis usually occur a bit north and west of where the models usually depict it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm actually thinking it could too. Not every storm has a two QPF max...IE 4/1/97. That had a firehose. My tablet just fell off my lap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RPM is bonkers. What a weenie model..lol. What's the latest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Basically 2.5 bos/pvd and 3.0 NYC. You'd think it was giving flurries you idiots. LOL Still a good hit for this area verbatim. Ratios would definitely help us out and with 1.75-2" of QPF that's a solid 20-25" storm and maybe a little more for some spots if the NAM has its way. The 700 mb deformation signal is very strong out this way, which should lead to a nice powder death band. Not sure I buy the really early phase on this run that clobbers NJ with > 4" of QPF as I think it may be a bit overdone. I'm thinking something in between the NAM and GFS will be closer to reality. GFS may be a bit too progressive, NAM a bit too amped. I don't know the science to say, but looking at this radar and the movement of the northern/southern pieces, I can easily see it as they currently sit. The science might say 'not so fast', and to be sure we're not talking huge distances of difference when it comes right down to it. But, I can certainly see this holding pretty tight to the coast. It will be nice if we can get some latitude boost to help our brethren in Maine/VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Almost like a giant slope of frontogenesis from the crazy forcing at the top of the BL near SE Mass and a sloped frontal zone across the rest of the region all under a beautiful (and stalled) coupled jet streak. Yeah massive TROWAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I like the 5"+ QPF max over Foxborough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Doesn't the best frontogenesis usually occur a bit north and west of where the models usually depict it? Banding you mean? Usually the best bands set up near and just on the warmer side of the frontogenesis area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What's the latest? 3-4'. Silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The Clown maps from the NAM have 45-50 inch spots in NW NJ and the Catskills. Pedestrian 24-40 for the rest of us. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I like the 5"+ QPF max over Foxborough Lewis School collapse redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Good news everyone (especially for Kevin) mattmfer is driving from DCA to PVD for the storm. Kevin will have his favorite poster back for Nemo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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