February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[griteater]

I always thought they were the GFS ensembles runs (mean) and it pulls in analogs that closely match it.  I see a lot of red taggers using it, so it's got to be somewhat useful.  I take a peak at them from time to time, I don't remember the last time they should favorable analogs, 2010 maybe.

 

I've been wanting to find out myself, but yeah, I believe the superensemble consists of multiple runs of the GFS ensemble...in theory that would give it more accuracy than just taking a single GFS ensemble run.  I also like the 500mb ensemble blend maps that CPC puts out at 3PM, where they factor in multiple ensemble products, CMC, GFS, Euro, maybe NAEFS

[SnowNiner]

It's so cold on the 12Z Euro, we've gone PEACH!!  Looks like the +PNA and -NAO ridges are starting to touch each other.  If we can get this look within say day 7 on the EURO/GFS I'll start getting excited. 

 

[WilkesboroDude]

Short window but morning commute...esp. back toward Wilkes County. Any cold pockets...or 1 degree colder than forecast will make the difference for some...most here will still be in that cold rain though likely don't take verbatim. 

 

 

Blacksburg:

Stay tuned...winter storm watches and/or advisories may be posted for Thursday night and Friday with later forecasts.

 

[griteater]

Why dry?  Just because it's not showing a storm or because of the ridge axis placement in the west?  The ridge axis looks good to me, I don't want it any further east, that would definitely blow.

 

With that look, your shortwaves would be diving down from the northern plains into the deep south on NW flow.....more clipper-ish without the ability to turn the corner...but those details to be ironed out later as you know.  The look you would really want is the western ridge pushed way up into W Canada with a southern stream underneath plowing into S California (Nino look)

[HurricaneTracker]

Ungodly early March cold outbreak per 12z Euro Days 9 and 10. If that verifies, stuff will die.

 

Agree and agree.  Once we get into March I'm ready for winter to be over!

[franklin NCwx]

Agree and agree. Once we get into March I'm ready for winter to be over!

you must hate march and April in western nc.

[WilkesboroDude]

[burgertime]

I'm with you Burger.  This is a cold, but dry look....but I would always prefer to take my chances with cold air in my pocket...we'll see if it holds.

 

Rather blocky would you say?

 

 

 

That very much reminds me of Jan. 2010. Much like Jan. of 2010 any S/W coming out of the west just went straight to Cuba...I've always been a believer in that we will either score on the front or the back (calm down jburns) with this type of look. We'll see if the 00z holds serve. 

[Cold Rain]

Yeah, a perfect prog is perfectly cold and perfectly dry there. But as y'all have said, the details can be figured out later. Tonight's run will probably show a totally different western ridge orientation anyway.

[franklin NCwx]

As usual the op euro is all over the map. Expect another solution at 0z. Or wait another hour to see if the much higher scoring ensembles continue to stay the course.

[packbacker]

First run I have seen solidly showing freezing rain in central/northern NC...

 

 

[griteater]

From CPC...

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 28 - MAR 06, 2013

OVERALL, ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING LATE-WINTER PATTERNS IN RECENT YEARS IS

FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER THE CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT

THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THAT FOR THE 6-10 DAY

PERIOD, EXCEPT WITH SOME EVOLUTION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND FAR WESTERN

NORTH AMERICA. THE BLOCKING PATTERN EVIDENT DURING THE PRECEDING PERIOD

CONTINUES AT NEARLY THE SAME STRENGTH INTO WEEK-2. THIS IS IMPRESSIVE

CONSIDERING THE TENDENCY OF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO DAMPEN OUT ANOMALIES OVER TIME.

THE FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC REMAINS SPATIALLY SIMILAR

TO THE 6-10 PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WITH IMPORTANT AMPLITUDE CHANGES. THE DEEP TROUGH

IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS FORECAST TO RELAX, WHILE THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH

AMERICA INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE. IN ESSENCE, THE FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN REDUCES

TO A RATHER CANONICAL COMBINATION OF THE TRADITIONAL +PNA/-NAO HEIGHT

FOOTPRINTS, AT LEAST FOR A TIME, AND THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THIS PERIOD

NICELY RESEMBLES THIS COMPROMISE.

THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD INVOLVES THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK,

ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS

STILL RATHER WET, SO A SERIES OF TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN

RIDGE POSITION PROVIDES AN INTERESTING FORECAST CHALLENGE EVEN DOWNSTREAM. AT

THIS TIME, THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK FAVORS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN

PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, A SYSTEM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO

DEVELOP ON THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD

ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS TILTS THE ODDS TOWARD

NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST. ABOVE-MEDIAN

PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF

A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT COULD SUPPORT ONE OR MORE OCCASIONS OF

CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE COAST.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S

OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE

MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED

ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY

11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE

TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DERIVED TOOLS, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY

IN THE DETAILS OF THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.

[tnweathernut]

I really would like to see the ridge and trough axis a little further west on the Euro ensembles.  With an NAO progged to be that negative, it would be pretty easy for anything to take the lower road.  The trough axis as shown on the OP would yield enhanced potential for the central and eastern Carolinas.  Centered further west, would yield potential for MANY more in the southeast and midsouth.

[Tacoma]

I am not real excited on the Feb28/March 1st storm that has been showing up, probably the week after is a better chance, if the pattern holds.  We need that low over the lakes out of the way and all models are showing it rotting away around Feb28/March1st.

well here we go again, every time the storm we're watching that looks to be a good one always seems to die out or get weak.  guys I don't think we're going to land a decent snow storm.  when its time for that storm to show up we say oh we like the next week, we're running out of weeks.  we've got to get one of these good looking storms to stick.

[FallsLake]

well here we go again, every time the storm we're watching that looks to be a good one always seems to die out or get weak.  guys I don't think we're going to land a decent snow storm.  when its time for that storm to show up we say oh we like the next week, we're running out of weeks.  we've got to get one of these good looking storms to stick.

We're looking at possible storms out past day seven. The models are just not that good. All we can do is look at the pattern. Once a storm sticks or appears within day seven, we'll have something to track. I do like the look ot this pattern. Somebody (outside the mountains) will get snow if the pattern depicted occurs.

[Southern Track]

The EPS control(Euro). Had the pieces there, it just phases later off the Virginia coast around 204. Still optimistic.

[WhiteoutWX]

well here we go again, every time the storm we're watching that looks to be a good one always seems to die out or get weak.  guys I don't think we're going to land a decent snow storm.  when its time for that storm to show up we say oh we like the next week, we're running out of weeks.  we've got to get one of these good looking storms to stick.

 

If you can't get excited over the upcoming projected pattern then I don't know what would excite you. Potential extreme period of blocking showing up.

[Tacoma]

It's so cold on the 12Z Euro, we've gone PEACH!!  Looks like the +PNA and -NAO ridges are starting to touch each other.  If we can get this look within say day 7 on the EURO/GFS I'll start getting excited. 

 

from the looks of this map all of nc would be a nice snow storm.

[Tacoma]

If you can't get excited over the upcoming projected pattern then I don't know what would excite you. Potential extreme period of blocking showing up.

I'm excited over the pattern but it seems the snow storm that shows never seems to stick, all I want is one to stick before we run out of time.  i know in the mtns.we are good until April and maybe the middle of april but your definitely about out of time then here.

[franklin NCwx]

I'm excited over the pattern but it seems the snow storm that shows never seems to stick, all I want is one to stick before we run out of time. i know in the mtns.we are good until April and maybe the middle of april but your definitely about out of time then here.

next week is still up in the air. Then we have a few weeks of a great pattern with a juiced up march subtropical jet.

[SnowNiner]

If you can't get excited over the upcoming projected pattern then I don't know what would excite you. Potential extreme period of blocking showing up.

 

Optomistic.  Frankly I don't understand what features to look for for a storm to form or when moisture should appear or when cyclogenesis will or will not form in the gulf.  I'm relying on this board to help me along.  What I do know, if we have good blocking which seems to be forecasted clearly in the models, if we get a storm...it's coming our way instead of Ohio.  Thus we're in the game.  So first week of March, we're in the game.  CLT may be on the bench watching the mountains get a storm, or it's cold and dry, but we're in the game!!  Most of the winter, we haven't even been allowed in the stadium. 

[POWERSTROKE]

from the looks of this map all of nc would be a nice snow storm.

 

 

If we get too much cold air it will stay dry.  

[griteater]

from the looks of this map all of nc would be a nice snow storm.

 

Just to clarify, on that map, the 'L' on the GA coast is representing low 500mb height anomalies (i.e. the area of max negative 500mb height anomalies).  It's not a surface low.  That's just a large, cold vortex / trough over the eastern U.S.

[Bevo]

If we get too much cold air it will stay dry.  

 

There's a fine balancing act here...we need that cold/dry air in place for more than one reason: 

 

(1) Surface temps - albeit overly dramatic in it's argument, there's no question that colder soil temps mean longer lasting accums. 

 

(2) The Column - if enough legitimate cold air can press hard enough, it seems the battle to cool all layers is a little easier.

 

(3) It's Already A Fight - moisture (warmth) is an immediate and ironic issue with our area and winter p-types.  A cold/dry airmass in place allows for an easier fight from the on-set.  Strong ULL dynamics may be exempt from this though.

 

I would say that *extreme cold air will tend to stay dry and suppress too much.  I would rather have solid cold air in place and let a potent southern stream evolve into chances for a higher probability of winter p-types materializing than the usual cold chasing moisture routine.

[mackerel_sky]

Since both models have been showing at different times of the winter,these record cold looks only to not verify.I wouldn't bite on the extremely cold,supressed look.it will back off,imo

[deltadog03]

More Rain back to our area.

[franklin NCwx]

The euro ensembles are down right frigid from day 7 to 15. The cold is centered in the southeast just like the gefs show. The nao is in the tank too which is a very strong signal from 51 members.

I see winter just keaps rolling on even tho the cries of bring on spring have been heard since dec.

Does anyone have a temp departure map for feb?I think my area will have a below nornal month.

[AirNelson39]

Matthew East retweeted the latest NAM 4k model for the upcoming icing event in western and northern NC and shows close to an inch of ice in the NC mtns. Anyone care to elaborate?

[MillerA]

Matthew East retweeted the latest NAM 4k model for the upcoming icing event in western and northern NC and shows close to an inch of ice in the NC mtns. Anyone care to elaborate?

This was from a tweet from Jim Cantore: nam4 model, freezing rain. Looks like an inch to me in some areas. 

 

https://twitter.com/Wright_Weather/status/304371197561434113/photo/1

[msuwx]

It was a tweet from Wright-Weather. I wanted to share the image.

This was from a tweet from Jim Cantore: nam4 model, freezing rain. Looks like an inch to me in some areas.

https://twitter.com/Wright_Weather/status/304371197561434113/photo/1