bhamwx205 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 A +pna is usually a dry pattern. And without a true southern stream we are left with relying on the northern branch to drop some energy out of Alaska. This is why a negative pna with a strong block can deliver. I would still keep my eye on that energy trying to come across late next week. fwiw in 93 there was a -nao AND a -pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wilkes says starting at hour 123 snow showing up on the euro Yeah I saw the euro run and that's just a horrible setup. Next on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That is a horrible setup for us and will change in a few hours. Don't get your hopes up too much on that one. Watch for whatever wave that comes behind it. Agreed, that was not impressive at all for the SE. The cold that comes down after 200 hours though is ridiculous. We might be setting up for a Larry March Special indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 A +pna is usually a dry pattern. And without a true southern stream we are left with relying on the northern branch to drop some energy out of Alaska. This is why a negative pna with a strong block can deliver. I would still keep my eye on that energy trying to come across late next week. I agree w/ this. To be honest I'm not looking for another small 1-2 inch event. I'm done tracking clippers and praying enough moisture makes it over the mountains to give me .25 qpf. I say enough of that crap. I'm looking for something that will bring 5-6 inches of snow. I would be fine w/ 4 inches of snow and a layer of ip on top of it. What I liked about the pattern the LR models originally were showing was the possibility of a Miller A type storm. It still can happen, I'm just wanting to see something to start showing up or atleast close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I agree w/ this. To be honest I'm not looking for another small 1-2 inch event. I'm done tracking clippers and praying enough moisture makes it over the mountains to give me .25 qpf. I say enough of that crap. I'm looking for something that will bring 5-6 inches of snow. I would be fine w/ 4 inches of snow and a layer of ip on top of it. What I liked about the pattern the LR models originally were showing was the possibility of a Miller A type storm. It still can happen, I'm just wanting to see something to start showing up or atleast close. I agree, I am done with all of this nickel and dime 1 inch here 1/2 inch there stuff. Don't get me wrong I will take any snow, If it's Nov or Dec I enjoy those much more. But now it is late Feb and anything that comes now will be in March, and I am ready for a big dog. This time of year the cold has gotten old along with minor events causing school delays. Bring on a true winter storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ok, I'm confused. What do we need for the models to start showing a Miller A? My understanding was we WANTED a +PNA and -NAO. We're probably going to have that. We also have, from what I understand (but I have no idea how to look for it on the models) is an active southern stream (or is it an active northern stream?). Reading Robert's info you'd think the blocking set up calls for a wet pattern as well as cool/cold. So what are we missing? Active flow, blocking, and cool/cold air. What's the missing ingredient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I agree w/ this. To be honest I'm not looking for another small 1-2 inch event. I'm done tracking clippers and praying enough moisture makes it over the mountains to give me .25 qpf. I say enough of that crap. I'm looking for something that will bring 5-6 inches of snow. I would be fine w/ 4 inches of snow and a layer of ip on top of it. What I liked about the pattern the LR models originally were showing was the possibility of a Miller A type storm. It still can happen, I'm just wanting to see something to start showing up or atleast close. Definitely agree, but still a chance the first week of March. We need this storm in the plains to get out of the way and than see how the next system sets up. If that thing rots over the lakes like some models are showing it's over, but if it can get out of the way, maybe we can get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ok, I'm confused. What do we need for the models to start showing a Miller A? My understanding was we WANTED a +PNA and -NAO. We're probably going to have that. We also have, from what I understand (but I have no idea how to look for it on the models) is an active southern stream (or is it an active northern stream?). Reading Robert's info you'd think the blocking set up calls for a wet pattern as well as cool/cold. So what are we missing? Active flow, blocking, and cool/cold air. What's the missing ingredient? Lot's of things are in play beyond specific indices. From just a cursory look at the model data, the LR guidance (Euro/GFS) is coming in with a much flatter solution with the wave over the western US that the models a few days ago were developing into our Miller A in the day 8-9 range. The flatter wave then can't survive under the weight of the GL cutoff...thus our storm disappears. Plenty of time for things to change in the day 6-8 range, and our storm *could* come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Definitely agree, but still a chance the first week of March. We need this storm in the plains to get out of the way and than see how the next system sets up. If that thing rots over the lakes like some models are showing it's over, but if it can get out of the way, maybe we can get lucky. Wouldn't that just suck. We finally have the PNA and NAO aligning in our favor, and a stupid low over the Lakes could starve us of our moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ok, I'm confused. What do we need for the models to start showing a Miller A? My understanding was we WANTED a +PNA and -NAO. We're probably going to have that. We also have, from what I understand (but I have no idea how to look for it on the models) is an active southern stream (or is it an active northern stream?). Reading Robert's info you'd think the blocking set up calls for a wet pattern as well as cool/cold. So what are we missing? Active flow, blocking, and cool/cold air. What's the missing ingredient? You want to look at the 5h maps. If energy can get into the southern stream then we should should be in play. The problem with such a cold pattern though is that the southern stream gets suppressed especially if you have a PV setting up shot just north of Maine which forces the energy to dive south and head to Cuba. As I've said before I think the first step is getting the cold here first. I don't care what the LR is showing, if there is no cold air to play with then it really doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I agree w/ this. To be honest I'm not looking for another small 1-2 inch event. I'm done tracking clippers and praying enough moisture makes it over the mountains to give me .25 qpf. I say enough of that crap. I'm looking for something that will bring 5-6 inches of snow. I would be fine w/ 4 inches of snow and a layer of ip on top of it. What I liked about the pattern the LR models originally were showing was the possibility of a Miller A type storm. It still can happen, I'm just wanting to see something to start showing up or atleast close. I feel the same way. Any snow is nice, but what we have had so far hasn't even stuck around for a day. I want a big storm. It's been too long since we have had a really decent snow that sticks around for a day or two. I was really hoping the pattern the next week or so would bring another March 1, 1980 storm. But now it just looks cold and dry. Such a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't get all the fretting yet. We're still 168 hours away from the cold pattern setting up, according to the Euro. There's no guarantee it'll even get anywhere near that cold, much less cold and dry. I think we'll have some opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't get all the fretting yet. We're still 168 hours away from the cold pattern setting up, according to the Euro. There's no guarantee it'll even get anywhere near that cold, much less cold and dry. I think we'll have some opportunities. Yes, the good thing is when the models have shown these real arctic blasts coming in the long range they usually have backed off some the closer it gets. I just don't want it to be too cold because that usually means too dry, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You want to look at the 5h maps. If energy can get into the southern stream then we should should be in play. The problem with such a cold pattern though is that the southern stream gets suppressed especially if you have a PV setting up shot just north of Maine which forces the energy to dive south and head to Cuba. As I've said before I think the first step is getting the cold here first. I don't care what the LR is showing, if there is no cold air to play with then it really doesn't matter. Thanks. Are you talking about the 500 mb voticity maps? Or can you identify energy and the streams in the standard 500 height maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks. Are you talking about the 500 mb voticity maps? Or can you identify energy and the streams in the standard 500 height maps? Sorry yes the 500 vort maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't get all the fretting yet. We're still 168 hours away from the cold pattern setting up, according to the Euro. There's no guarantee it'll even get anywhere near that cold, much less cold and dry. I think we'll have some opportunities. I agree and I don't want to come across as worried or fretting. My main point was potential is one thing but it would be nice to see something to start showing up on the models. Over the years I've seen a lot of potential show up on the models and walked away w/ just that, potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC1032 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OFTHE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING....AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE TONIGHTAND TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THESOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIRIS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS AWINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...ASWELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ANDCENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY ASFREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OFSLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILLEND AS RAIN IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I agree and I don't want to come across as worried or fretting. My main point was potential is one thing but it would be nice to see something to start showing up on the models. Over the years I've seen a lot of potential show up on the models and walked away w/ just that, potential. You're not coming across that way. And I agree with you...potential don't mean diddly squat without some snow on the ground. But wrt potential, it looks to be our best of the year....which is worth being optimistic about at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You're not coming across that way. And I agree with you...potential don't mean diddly squat without some snow on the ground. But wrt potential, it looks to be our best of the year....which is worth being optimistic about at this point. I agree Cold Rain...This is the best look we've seen all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You're not coming across that way. And I agree with you...potential don't mean diddly squat without some snow on the ground. But wrt potential, it looks to be our best of the year....which is worth being optimistic about at this point. Thank you! Way too much pessimism in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looking at the GFS/Euro/CMC ensembles in the 6-12 day range, the GFS wants to progress the eastern trough to the east a bit more than the Euro and CMC....so, the GFS lends itself to more of dry-ish NW flow. That plays a bit into its bias, but at the same time, I think it's overall performed pretty well this winter in the extended given the progressive, northern stream dominated flow. The Euro and CMC ensembles keep the trough axis a bit farther west and would open the door for a system to dig and round the base of the trough...and this is what CPC hinted at in their update yesterday aftn. All of this is way out there....just commenting on the way the ensembles look at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 On a brighter note, tomorrow morning is looking a lot more interesting on the 12z gfs for NC. I really haven't paid that much attention to it but I do believer there will be school delays in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 On a brighter note, tomorrow morning is looking a lot more interesting on the 12z gfs for NC. I really haven't paid that much attention to it but I do believer there will be school delays in the morning. Yeah, I understand, I haven't paid much attention either...it's one of those deals where the cold air is hanging on for dear life against a blowtorch shooting at you from the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks like the gfs continues to let that mid week wave move across the south. Even developes a weak low that brings light snow to tenn and western nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks like the gfs continues to let that mid week wave move across the south. Even developes a weak low that brings light snow to tenn and western nc. Yup....even a flizzard here in the NC Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ukmet develops this wave too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Latest GGEM Day 9 Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Latest GGEM Day 9 Day 10 hello miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Nice to see! There you go. Now, just get it a little farther east, or we're hosed in eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ggem is weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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