February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[GaWx]

Per 0Z Goofy, the 6-10 day period has 850's that are 14-19 F below normal in the SE US!

[superjames1992]

30 years without a 6"+ snowstorm is amazing, even for Atlanta. It seems like just about every other southern city has had a snowstorm of 6"+ since then. I would say Atlanta is due for a big one.

 

It doesn't help that the airport is south of town.

 

Let's just hope that the GFS is playing into its biases.  The other modeling certainly looked better than the GFS at 12z.  I am anxious for the 0z GGEM tonight. 

[dsaur]

If I understand it correctly, it is 1 cm of liquid (0.40") or ~4" of snow. Also, your snow isn't finished based on the location of the sfc low at 240 hours. I'd think you'd end up with a very nice ~7-8" or maybe a bit more. Maybe even Brick would be satifsfied but you never know. Also, please nobody tell Tony. this gives him 0.10 mm of liquid equiv. in the form of sleet....probably a dusting of sleet. We don't want him to get overly excited about a fantasy map.

That's the Mole Storm if it's around the 3rd.  I have it on good authority it will be vastly more than a dusting, lol.  Meanwhile, I'm getting pounded with lightening and thunder, but no rain.  Go figure.  Then days from now when it's pouring ip/sn I won't get the first flash or boom.  I've still only seen lightening and thunder in a snow storm the one time in Atl. back in the 80's.  T

[superjames1992]

I see the 0z GGEM went into mega-suppression mode tonight.  Ugh.  One run it shows a megastorm and the next run it shows nothing.  I should note that the storm is still there, though, and it generates a lot of precip in the Gulf, so perhaps mega-suppression isn't the right word.

 

It also sends our hr ~144-168 system to Cuba.

[dsaur]

These are good signs.  You don't want a fully fledged storm until 3 days out.  Before that you want suppression, and the 0 line in Cuba.  That keeps it cold in the US for frozen.  No 0 line in Cuba 10 days out, not cold enough for snow   T

[GaWx]

I see the 0z GGEM went into mega-suppression mode tonight.  Ugh.  One run it shows a megastorm and the next run it shows nothing.  I should note that the storm is still there, though, and it generates a lot of precip in the Gulf, so perhaps mega-suppression isn't the right word.

 

It also sends our hr ~144-168 system to Cuba.

 

One person's "suppression" is another person's "dream". It is all relative. The 0Z Thu CMC storm looks to quite possibly give very far south and coastal areas a very rare snow! Of course, the odds of that being there in the next run are smaller than the odds of Tony swearing off his love for sleet for the rest of his life!

[superjames1992]

One person's "suppression" is another person's "dream". It is all relative. The 0Z Thu CMC storm looks to quite possibly give very far south and coastal areas a very rare snow! Of course, the odds of that being there in the next run are smaller than the odds of Tony swearing off his love for sleet for the rest of his life!

 

It looked too far south on Meteocentre for even the Gulf Coast (except for FL) to get any precip to me, but maybe I am wrong.  I did notice the P-type maps showing snow for parts of northeastern Mexico, though. 

 

We are going to need you to report on the Doctor tonight, Larry!  It's about time for the Doc to give us a weenie run to mull over.

[dsaur]

Well, Gerry Garcia down in Gainesville needs some winter precip love too   It could happen.  Anytime the cold pushes that far south, and into the gulf, odd things can happen along the boundary.  And that's in essence what we hope for with these maybe storms, lol.  Get it cold enough into the gulf, and hope for something to pop along the borderline.  Good times ahead!!  Rain, and cold, and maybe a blessed union, or two   T

[GaWx]

Folks,

 The intensity and duration of the upcoming cold snap is bvery impressive on the 0Z Good Doctor. It has 850's of -4 C or colder at KATL for the 84 hours from hour 156 to the end of the run wih no end then in sight! That would be pretty cold even in midwinter.

[Ji]

Folks,

The intensity and duration of the upcoming cold snap is bvery impressive on the 0Z Good Doctor. It has 850's of -4 C or colder at KATL for the 84 hours from hour 156 to the end of the run wih no end then in sight! That would be pretty cold even in midwinter.

Who cares about cold? What about storm?

[GaWx]

Who cares about cold? What about storm?

 

1) Cold is cool.

2) Storm without cold = rain

 

Edit: 3) A pretty far south teen tiny Miller A forms hour 228 in the eastern GOM and then crosses central FL hour 240. This is very close to producing light snow in NE Gulf coastal sections and far north FL March 3! Interesting how that date keeps cropping up on various model runs.

[superjames1992]

1) Cold is cool.

2) Storm without cold = rain

 

Was the Euro close to a storm, Larry?

[GaWx]

Was the Euro close to a storm, Larry?

 

1) Yes, please see above edited post.

2) Also, N FL gets below 0C at 850 at hour 156 and never gets back above 0C through 240 hours with no end yet in sight! That's absolutely incredible for early March and would be quite noteworthy even in midwinter!

[superjames1992]

1) Yes, please see above edited post.

2) Also, N FL gets below 0C at 850 at hour 156 and never gets back above 0C through 240 hours with no end yet in sight! That's absolutely incredible for early March and would be quite noteworthy even in midwinter!

 

Thanks!

[dsaur]

1) Cold is cool.

2) Storm without cold = rain

 

Edit: 3) A pretty far south teen tiny Miller A forms hour 228 in the eastern GOM and then crosses central FL hour 240. This is very close to producing light snow in NE Gulf coastal sections and far north FL March 3! Interesting how that date keeps cropping up on various model runs.

And I just told ya, lol.  Gainesville gets snow   Why not?  March 3rd is the Mole Storm, all things are possible, lol.   Man,  I'll be so glad to get cold again.

  This rolling thunder down here is impressive.  Still getting it near 4am, and a couple of booms have been window and wall rattlers.  This kind of energy in winter with cold around?  All things seem possible. T

[MichaelJ]

This type of cold showing up is really unfortunate this late in the season because it most likely will just cause damage to some trees and flowers without serving any useful purpose. In Dec/Jan, this could be exciting with the possibilities for causing some wintry precipitation but only leads to suppression this late in the year if the models are right with the strength of the cold. I don't want to label it a disaster as that would be hyperbole but it is not a good thing for growing things which have started to come alive with the warm winter this year. As is our luck sometimes in the SE, late March and April cold serve little purpose for wintry weather lovers when it is way below normal( (but still too warm for measurable snow or just too cold for storms to impact most of our region).  Hopefully the models will flip like they have all winter and we end up with a more reasonable solution

[Brick Tamland]

Folks,

 The intensity and duration of the upcoming cold snap is bvery impressive on the 0Z Good Doctor. It has 850's of -4 C or colder at KATL for the 84 hours from hour 156 to the end of the run wih no end then in sight! That would be pretty cold even in midwinter.

Who cares about cold? What about storm?

The models have backed off the extreme cold all winter as it gets closer to when it I supposed to come. And if it is just cold and dry, who cares? It is just a waste.

[Lookout]

Who cares about cold? What about storm?

Watch it ji. Not sure why you are even in this forum spreading your weenism posts but if you decide to post here, posts like this will get you in trouble...especially if you are directing them toward someone like Larry.

 

1) Cold is cool.

2) Storm without cold = rain

 

Edit: 3) A pretty far south teen tiny Miller A forms hour 228 in the eastern GOM and then crosses central FL hour 240. This is very close to producing light snow in NE Gulf coastal sections and far north FL March 3! Interesting how that date keeps cropping up on various model runs.

It is quite impressive to have cold that long and honestly I'd be surprised not to see "something" during that time...like shortwaves moving through. Might not make impressive totals or whatever but that's a long time (if it verifies) to not have any precip. Of course our luck the snow would indeed fall along the gulf coast, north fl, etc.

 

Regardless it is impressive.

[Lookout]

Hopefully if it does snow somewhere in the south in that time frame it will happen at night. If it snows during the day in March, it better be snowing pretty heavily or either well below freezing, or it won't stick.

Good one old man.

 

Anyone predicting anything a week out folks..c'mon...use some common sense. Those of us who have been here any length of time know this but even you new comers should know that snowstorms/winter storms are hard to predict 24 to 48 hours out here and you see someone say there will be one a week away and give it much thought? Really?

[WilkesboroDude]

0z EURO still picking up on something frozen breaking out by hour 102. 

 

Few inches from Black Mountain to Mount Airy. Wunderground squeezes out a few inches for a few frames.

[jaxjagman]

Folks,

 The intensity and duration of the upcoming cold snap is bvery impressive on the 0Z Good Doctor. It has 850's of -4 C or colder at KATL for the 84 hours from hour 156 to the end of the run wih no end then in sight! That would be pretty cold even in midwinter.

No doubt.Showing some dp's around 40 in S.FL.Could be rough on OJ prices with the orange groves budding now.

[Lookout]

I just saw this looking at ffc's homepage and they now have weekly web briefings videos on youtube. Maybe I missed this being mentioned but I  had no idea they have been doing this and I'm sure I'm the only one. 

 

Anyway, they started. apparently. not too long with 13 videos uploaded dating back a month or so.  Maybe other offices have been doing this for a while, I don't know...but I think it's cool they are doing it.

 

Here is this weeks link to the flooding/rainfall potential in the coming days. Now it is a day old  but still good (nice graphics alone make it worth it)

 

The only the thing I would wish for is it would be awesome if they would update these videos every day when facing severe weather, winter weather, heavy rains, etc as needed. For example, uploading one today after this mornings rainfall reports and new model runs. I know though they are real busy but maybe they can make it happen. (you ffc forecasters that visit or post here...hint hint lol )

 

Still can't complain too much though and glad they are doing it.

 

[jaxjagman]

THE NEXT WAVE MAY TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE CURRENT BIGSYSTEM...BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN PERFECT AGREEMENT WITH THIS. FORNOW WE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPINGTHE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE COULDBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WARM SIDE...AND PERHAPS SOME POSTFRONTAL SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE...BUT MODELS ARE TOO DIFFERENT WITHTHE COMPLEX SCENARIO TO GO TO ANY EXTREMES WITH DETAILS AT THISTIME.THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE REGION WILL BE IN A COOL AND SOMEWHATUNSETTLED PATTERN. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL BRING ON AND OFF CHANCESFOR GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LEANING TOWARD THE GFS IN THEEXTENDED AS THE LATE WEEK EASTERN U.S. SNOWBALL DEPICTED ON THEECMWF SEEMS OVERDONE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=3&glossary=1

[Brick Tamland]

THE NEXT WAVE MAY TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE CURRENT BIGSYSTEM...BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN PERFECT AGREEMENT WITH THIS. FORNOW WE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPINGTHE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE COULDBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WARM SIDE...AND PERHAPS SOME POSTFRONTAL SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE...BUT MODELS ARE TOO DIFFERENT WITHTHE COMPLEX SCENARIO TO GO TO ANY EXTREMES WITH DETAILS AT THISTIME.THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE REGION WILL BE IN A COOL AND SOMEWHATUNSETTLED PATTERN. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL BRING ON AND OFF CHANCESFOR GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LEANING TOWARD THE GFS IN THEEXTENDED AS THE LATE WEEK EASTERN U.S. SNOWBALL DEPICTED ON THEECMWF SEEMS OVERDONE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=3&glossary=1

 

Doesn't it seem they always lean toward the model with the most conservative look at the time?

[burgertime]

I see no one wants to comment on the 00z GFS LR? It looked abysmal for late winter lovers. Gotta hope that is just a hiccup. The Euro EPS Control run looked good for the LR even had a few chances of southern snow. One thing to remember is that while the models may not be showing what we want the last two systems we've had (for NC anyways) showed up about 3 days out. Just don't be surprised if we have something to watch come next Monday or Tuesday for the following weekend. 

[jaxjagman]

Doesn't it seem they always lean toward the model with the most conservative look at the time?

They don't want to get burned like they have many times before.It's a safe approach for them.

[tnweathernut]

I don't know if anyone else noticed, but it appears as if the ridge that was progged to be ON the west coast from the Euro just a couple of days ago is now progged to be inland and inching east (ala the GFS). Who knows how this period of extreme blocking works out, but without something undercutting the ridge it would lead me to believe we see the dreaded cold and dry for most.

[burgertime]

I don't know if anyone else noticed, but it appears as if the ridge that was progged to be ON the west coast from the Euro just a couple of days ago is now progged to be inland and inching east (ala the GFS). Who knows how this period of extreme blocking works out, but without something undercutting the ridge it would lead me to believe we see the dreaded cold and dry for most.

 

I said it before and I'll say it again I think we need to be looking on the edges of it. Hope to catch something just as it sets in or just as it's leaving. Always tough to do but sometimes that's when you can really cash in. 

[jaxjagman]

I don't know if anyone else noticed, but it appears as if the ridge that was progged to be ON the west coast from the Euro just a couple of days ago is now progged to be inland and inching east (ala the GFS). Who knows how this period of extreme blocking works out, but without something undercutting the ridge it would lead me to believe we see the dreaded cold and dry for most.

Long range i know but before the Euro is hinting at something big March 3

[Brick Tamland]

I see no one wants to comment on the 00z GFS LR? It looked abysmal for late winter lovers. Gotta hope that is just a hiccup. The Euro EPS Control run looked good for the LR even had a few chances of southern snow. One thing to remember is that while the models may not be showing what we want the last two systems we've had (for NC anyways) showed up about 3 days out. Just don't be surprised if we have something to watch come next Monday or Tuesday for the following weekend. 

 

I'll take the longrange Euro over the GFS anytime. Not to say the Euro is right, but I think it gets it right more times in the longrange versus the GFS. I don't really like the extreme cold solutions, though. That usually means cold and dry when it is that cold. But all winter the models have backed off on the extreme cold the closer we get to the event. If it does get that cold, maybe we can cash in on something like you said at the beginning or the end before it is too dry.