Chattownsnow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If only that low could be over eastern Canada, or Maine. it may be on future runs. we just have to wait it out. and like others have said if it doesn't scoot out sooner. it has to eventually and maybe that will be our window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The trough axis is farther west this run. I would think that's a better thing than having a huge vortex over Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On the later panels of the gfs the ridge axis has migrated east so I doubt any storm will be able to make the turn. When the trough looks good we have the low parked over the lakes. We need a break here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If only that low could be over eastern Canada, or Maine. If it's not one thing it's another. We get the ridge to scoot a bit west like we need, then there's a low stuck in the lakes. That'll probably get fixed and something else will be in the way.....I'll give it to Monday and I'm moving on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 would the ridge being further west play a roll in the low over the lakes positioning further west as well and sitting in the lakes? if that's the case then we are screwed because when one trends well, the other trends poorly. I guess we would want the Greenland block to ease up and allow the lakes low to move out more hoping the blocking is delayed a bit. That's often a Bias of the GFS to build blocks to quickly isn't it? heck, I'm probably looking to far into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Disappointing looking at that setup, nothing is going to amplify with that low over the lakes, and with the crazy blocking it's not going anywhere. Bring on spring. WxSouth saying this is how you want to see the GFS at that time, though. If you're a snow lover in the East, this post is for you. I've mentioned how the AO and NAO havent' timed or synched up yet. Now it's game time I think. They both are synching up. And it's not in the "10 day"...it begins mid week with the ...next big upper low closing off in the Lakes. This will be the deep trough in the heart land and Eastern US that opens up the door to Canada and ushers in sustained cold, unlike no pattern seen this Winter. Now it's late Winter, so this won't be Severe Cold, but plenty cold aloft. And the GFS just in keeps such a strong Greenland block and holds this trough in place with several systems rotating though the Deep Eastern Trough, with a hint at retrograding flow ( ! )This is about how you want to see the GFS in this time range....IE, cold and dry. There is probably going to be a couple of strong systems that round the bend of the trough and could tap the Gulf, turning into a Major Winter Storm in the Southeast, MidAtlantic or Northeast (or all 3). http://www.facebook.com/#!/WxSouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 WxSouth saying this is how you want to see the GFS at that time, though. http://www.facebook.com/#!/WxSouth I agree with this. With the trough axis farther west, you have a shot at SW energy (which we know there's no shortage of) rounding the base and sparking a storm. The air should be cold enough. I'm not bothered by this run of the GFS at all.....though I only saw though 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I agree with this. With the trough axis farther west, you have a shot at SW energy (which we know there's no shortage of) rounding the base and sparking a storm. The air should be cold enough. I'm not bothered by this run of the GFS at all.....though I only saw though 180. I guess it's better for the cold to come in first instead of chasing the moisture like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I agree with this. With the trough axis farther west, you have a shot at SW energy (which we know there's no shortage of) rounding the base and sparking a storm. The air should be cold enough. I'm not bothered by this run of the GFS at all.....though I only saw though 180. Yeah, I don't buy the severity of the GFS. If you look at the 60 hour total precip panels for the US at hours 180, 240, 300, and 360, the cold is so overwhelming that almost no area of the entire US gets more than .25 of precip in any of the frames! Not going to happen in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Anybody seen the ggem yet? I'm curious what it's showing. I'm not home so I can't check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yeah, I don't buy the severity of the GFS. If you look at the 60 hour total precip panels for the US at hours 180, 240, 300, and 360, the cold is so overwhelming that almost no area of the entire US gets more than .25 of precip in any of the frames! Not going to happen in my opinion. And we have seen all winter the severe cold shown in the long range back off some as we get closer. As long as it is cold enough is all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Agree that we don't want to see the trough axis too far east. I had this text and animation below in my winter outlook, so it has to verify....lol....but it shows the type of evolution that we'd want to see, with the Great Lakes low rotating into the NE and into 50/50 position, with a western shortwave diving down into the southern plains. There are so many shortwaves in the fast flow though (as we've seen the last 2 winters), so you have to question whether we would be able to build enough ridging along the west coast in order to have the stream separation necessary to spark a gulf low. Here's what I wrote....."The type of widespread winter weather event to look for in the southeast would be a shortwave toppling a Pacific ridge and moving into the Pacific Northwest before diving southeast into the Southern Plains, then tracking east across the upper south underneath a blocking –AO / -NAO setup. An example of this type of storm from my ENSO/PDO analog years would be Dec 31 – Jan 1 1962. That particular storm brought 1 inch to Atlanta, 6.6 inches to Greensboro, and 6.0 inches to Charlotte. Here’s an animation of that storm:" I can't get the animation to load...here's a link to it - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37702-griteaters-winter-outlook-2012-2013/?p=1850800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm only concerned about late next week. There are two separate pieces of energy and both weaken as they move east thanks to the upper low over the lakes. Now they did not get crushed completely on the 12z run like they did on previous runs. We have seen this before with the gfs shearing out energy too quick. We need to watch in future runs for the lakes low to be weaker, or farther east, or both. That will give the follow up waves more space and they won't weaken as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GEFS looks a much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ridge axis is much better on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Anybody seen the ggem yet? I'm curious what it's showing. I'm not home so I can't check. Nothing substantial, the fantasy storm that was at 240 is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Nothing substantial, the fantasy storm that was at 240 is gone Thanks Jon...I figured it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Here is what I was talking about. This is the CMC, wave gets sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I would think if the vortex ends up a little further west, around the northern part of MN or WI even, it would allow the potential for a WSW flow, which could set up something overrunning for parts of the southeast. It could alter the flow enough to give something time to pop in from the northwest and hold together coming east too. (ala a variation of Griteaters animation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Can someone explain? On wunderground, looking at the 0Z Euro Snowfall map from hours 102-114, the snow that is showing up on the spine/escarpment of the Apps....is this NW upslope snow or CAD ice? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If the ridge is too far west,could allow for an apps runner,which nobody in the Carolinas wants! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If the ridge is too far west,could allow for an apps runner,which nobody in the Carolinas wants! With the blocking shown, it would be like pulling teeth with your fingers to get anything to cut after the middle of next week. I don't think that's a big worry at this point...................IF the blocking is as strong as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Drop it a tad more S and E and i'd be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Kansas City should be the new snow capital of North America, or at least in the running with Boston....... Interesting pattern shaping up, and with the weeklies consistently cold it's a pretty good signal. Lets hope we can all score before spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Kansas City should be the new snow capital of North America, or at least in the running with Boston....... Interesting pattern shaping up, and with the weeklies consistently cold it's a pretty good signal. Lets hope we can all score before spring. Ark would get another hit,alot would depend on surface temps but it comes in at night plus thats a decent storm that would have dynamics EDIT:Its the only model i've seen though to be that far S,but the others have been trending S as well,wait on the Euro to see what it says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The models have been trying to transfer the energy to a surface low down towards Louisiana on the day 4 storm - if that happens and the 850s crash upon the transfer - this will be a bomb snowstorm for me Arkansas and west and middle Tennessee. So so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The trough axis is farther west this run. I would think that's a better thing than having a huge vortex over Maine. That's the key I'm looking for...get that trough to set up correctly so Ga is in the middle of the coldest, lol. The kind of arrogance it takes to start budding in Feb will always get the stomp..well, except for last year. Still, somehow bloomers have muddled though over the eons, so I guess some late winter hard freezes won't be the end of the plant world. Plus I need the severe cold to survive Please sir, may I have another cold slam! I'd be willing to pay enormous sums for oranges if I was assured of snow from Orlando to the top of Tenn. 10 bucks an orange? For a foot of snow? Sure, no problem, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The models have been trying to transfer the energy to a surface low down towards Louisiana on the day 4 storm - if that happens and the 850s crash upon the transfer - this will be a bomb snowstorm for me Arkansas and west and middle Tennessee. So so close Maybe it will work out.North Middle Tn has been the screw zone of the state.1.5" the last two years is rather depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Maybe it will work out.North Middle Tn has been the screw zone of the state.1.5" the last two years is rather depressing. I grew up in Gallatin, that place has been in a 25 year screw zone........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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