rduwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Awfully close on 18z Yeah it was....If that lead energy was a little slower we could of had a good storm on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The storm you guys are seeing on the GGEM is a shortwave totally different from the one the EURO is showing. Right now the EURO & GFS crush the shortwave the GGEM ends up creating the megastorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Week 1 (2/25-3/3): wet Week 2 (3/4-3/10): slightly drier than normal northern SE to near normal southern SE Weeks 3-4 (3/11-24): near normal Week 1 turning quite cold Week 2: very cold..coldest week Week 3: still solid chill Week 4: slightly below normal Weeks 1-4: strong west based -NAO AO for weeks 1-4: neutral, negative, negative, neutral PNA: + for weeks 1-2; neutral weeks 3-4 Thought the weeklies would be warmer ,even has on the 11th of March surface temps at 35 just S of Orlando,not sure that will happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 If that cold air keeps running hard all weekend, it could catch up to that precip come Tues! Tenn. at least might have to start a thread, before the weekend is out. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 If that cold air keeps running hard all weekend, it could catch up to that precip come Tues! Tenn. at least might have to start a thread, before the weekend is out. T Wondering that also,plus if the snowpack stays in Kansas with NW winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I see several here mentioning the big snowstorm on the Canadian... According to Frank Strait it is the "improved Canadian". Meaning they upgraded/did something to it recently. Take that for whatever its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I see several here mentioning the big snowstorm on the Canadian... According to Frank Strait it is the "improved Canadian". Meaning they upgraded/did something to it recently. Take that for whatever its worth. It was upgraded a couple weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It was upgraded a couple weeks ago Time for it to be tested for something meaningful then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I see several here mentioning the big snowstorm on the Canadian... According to Frank Strait it is the "improved Canadian". Meaning they upgraded/did something to it recently. Take that for whatever its worth. Yes, it uses 4D now and has a much improved resolution. Going by the specs alone, it should be the second-best model behind the Euro, I'd think (and just ahead of the UK Met), though I haven't seen any verification scores for it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro ensembles well below normal thru day 15. Cold centered in the southeast still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yes, it uses 4D now and has a much improved resolution. Going by the specs alone, it should be the second-best model behind the Euro, I'd think (and just ahead of the UK Met), though I haven't seen any verification scores for it yet. I am sure most in the SE forum are rooting for the GGEM to be onto something. With its recent upgrade it would probably achieve legendary status moving forward if it verified. I don't know about y'all,, but it would be nice to be able to hug something other than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 EPS control run was very close to a big dog...just goes *POOF* at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 EPS control run was very close to a big dog...just goes *POOF* at the last second. So does the control run provide big snows for Arkansas that peter out coming east through AL, MS, and GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I am sure most in the SE forum are rooting for the GGEM to be onto something. With its recent upgrade it would probably achieve legendary status moving forward if it verified. I don't know about y'all,, but it would be nice to be able to hug something other than the euro. Agreed. I wish we could step up another notch in model accuracy, especially days 4-10 atleast. The nam has improved IMO this year in the short range, but you can't hang your hat on it. The GFS I have the same amount of confidence in it as I did 5 years ago. And they just tweaked it 2 or so years ago I believe. I am a firm believer the weather is just to sophisticated for us to ever master forecasting. We Will improve, but there is a limit for our finite capabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So does the control run provide big snows for Arkansas that peter out coming east through AL, MS, and GA? Has Ark ever been left out of anything this year?What a year for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So does the control run provide big snows for Arkansas that peter out coming east through AL, MS, and GA? RH looks great for alot of folks in the SE,but like you said it peters out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Agreed. I wish we could step up another notch in model accuracy, especially days 4-10 atleast. The nam has improved IMO this year in the short range, but you can't hang your hat on it. The GFS I have the same amount of confidence in it as I did 5 years ago. And they just tweaked it 2 or so years ago I believe. I am a firm believer the weather is just to sophisticated for us to ever master forecasting. We Will improve, but there is a limit for our finite capabilities. Don't quote me on this but rumor is GFS being replaced by FIM model in the not so distant future. Not sure what the current word on that is now tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Agreed, they have had a nice snow and ice year. The reason I ask is b/c I think if the vortex northeast of us isn't so "crushing" that NICE looking snow in Arkansas on some models should hold together longer. It could be a 4-8 type of event for them and more of a 1-3 or 2-4 type event further east. All speculation at this point, but something to watch for sure. Has Ark ever been left out of anything this year?What a year for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Don't quote me on this but rumor is GFS being replaced by FIM model in the not so distant future. Not sure what the current word on that is now tho. Did you steal that info from wxsouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Did you steal that info from wxsouth? From my years of blogging on Dr.Masters blog during the hurricane season. Great learning tool. Take a look at how much this model is getting upgraded. http://fim.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So does the control run provide big snows for Arkansas that peter out coming east through AL, MS, and GA? Just warm enough to give MS and southern GA rain then it just heads OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Continuing from a post I made earlier today - 18Z GFS continues to tick warmer (as has every run for a day and a half now). Thoughts? Mine are not suitable for printing .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Accuweather is showing snow March 2-3 for asheville. know its a week away but some models are also showing this. could this be a snowstorm that sticks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Accuweather is showing snow March 2-3 for asheville. know its a week away but some models were also showing this. could this be a snowstorm that sticks? I'm sure that sometime in the next week you will say stick a fork in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Accuweather is showing snow March 2-3 for asheville. know its a week away but some models were also showing this. could this be a snowstorm that sticks? Hopefully if it does snow somewhere in the south in that time frame it will happen at night. If it snows during the day in March, it better be snowing pretty heavily or either well below freezing, or it won't stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Hopefully if it does snow somewhere in the south in that time frame it will happen at night. If it snows during the day in March, it better be snowing pretty heavily or either well below freezing, or it won't stick. hoping we have a widespread event so lots of folks can benefit. snow for lots of folks would be great in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 hoping we have a widespread event so lots of folks can benefit. snow for lots of folks would be great in the southeast. It sure would be nice to at least get SOMETHING out of this winter before we move on to spring. It will bring peace of mind to a lot of people. It would really suck having to wait another 9 months to have a shot at any snow again. A dusting of snow would be enough to make me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Where can I get the 12z GGEM images out to 240 now? More specifically, where can I get 12Z GGEM clown maps (specifically for the 9-10 day 12Z)? Maybe they don't exist? I tried looking at that site that was linked, but can't figure out how to generate a clown for days 9-10. Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Where can I get the 12z GGEM images out to 240 now? This is the best site: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=fr&mod=gemglb You can view precip, h5, the surface, P-type, etc. And you have to love the hr 240 panel, haha. Just a major snow for much of the SE and from CLT to RDU northward. Larry, I'm not sure if there's anywhere you can view any clown model-generated snowfall accumulation maps, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 More specifically, where can I get 12Z GGEM clown maps (specifically for the 9-10 day 12Z)? Maybe they don't exist? I tried looking at that site that was linked, but can't figure out how to generate a clown for days 9-10. Anyone know? I think I figured it out just now. Go here: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na〈=fr And choose GEM-GLB at the top. Then, you can choose the cycle below (I think it defaults to the most recent run). Click the check box for Images for any of the items in the list on the left. Try "Precipitation". Then, down at the bottom, you can choose the hour. Problem is, English is not the native language on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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