Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... considerable questions remain with respect to the evolution of weather features with the extended periods...especially the later periods. The big question...as has been the case for days now...is the development/movement/position of a potential closed upper low. European model (ecmwf)/GFS continue to cover the entire spectrum with respect to the details. Thus...there is little to no reliability or confidence in the extended forecast...especially the later periods. At the beginning of the extended periods...Tue- Wednesday...still dealing with a lingering wedge across the eastern sections. Given the persistent pattern this past winter and Spring so far...have leaned heavily toward the European model (ecmwf) which is much slower to erode The Wedge. Better precipitation chances with both the GFS/European model (ecmwf) shift south and east of the County Warning Area early...with precipitation trending toward a more diurnal pattern focusing along the mountains in areas of better differential heating. Temperatures should slowly warm toward more seasonal levels...but likely will remain just below normal through the New River valley...Shenandoah Valley...and Greenbrier valley. During the final days of the extended...namely Thu-Fri...have gone nearly entirely with the 00z/12z European model (ecmwf) solution and completely ignored the GFS solution of a very deep closed low through the southern ablutions with attendant heavy rain followed by snow and ridiculously cold temperatures for early may. The European model (ecmwf) offers a much more plausible forecast from all aspects...qpf...pops...and temperatures. A cold front on the forward flank of any low pressure area across the upper mid-west/Ohio Valley may begin to approach the area by Sat with increasing chances of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain at that time.
Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV Interesting weather pattern showing up on one of the models (GFS) for next weekend. Talking about this in the 6pm Wx report. Friday evening, May 4-Sunday May 6th....a low moving up the east coast at the same time a pocket of very cold air aloft over the TN Valley into our Mtns. This reminds of the pattern we had back in early May 1992 which produced 57" of snow on Mt. Pisgah. Areas below 3500 feet had rain, areas above had wet snow. While the city of Asheville had rain, the mountain peaks had heavy snow. Currently the model suggest freezing levels down to ~3000 feet under this cold core of air aloft. Time will tell if this verifies. I will be watching it.