WilkesboroDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Significant tick up in area based accumulations on 0z GFS twister data maps based from all earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I think a lot of this is going to be about timing and how much Radiative cooling can take place before the clouds roll in Thursday night-Friday morning. Really for North Carolina its all about dewpoints and wetbulb temps as we go into tomorrow night. There is no tap to a cold air source. What we need to watch tomorrow are the dewpoints and wetbulb temps and see how they are compared to model projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 0z pretty much confirming winter weather products to be issued shortly mainly west of course. Created new thread to take the discussion there. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39450-feb-2122-wintry-mix-discobs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What an awful 0z run of the GFS, hope the ensembles are better. The lakes low is so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS has been trending pretty cold as well as the Euro for the first week of March. My biggest interest is in the March 1-March 7 area...seems like several favorable situations present themselves each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What an awful 0z run of the GFS, hope the ensembles are better. The lakes low is so bad. I know. It's like the swamp thing disrupting the whole setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The GGEM looked pretty cold and suppressed. At the end of the run, it gave Texas a good snow and then sent the SLP to Cuba at hr 240. Oh, yes, that is a 1052 mb HP up in Nunavut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 you mean the models lost the storm!?!?! i'm shocked. it amazes me to see these storms show up and disappear for the southeast but if one is headed for the plains or great lakes it's like it is locked in on day 6 lol. eh, maybe its because I'm really not paying as much attention to those storms and have a biased eye toward our sad little winter corner, but it sure seems that way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Monday interests me. We'll see just how fast the atmosphere is changing, as close as that is on the Gfs. If all this change is for real, we'll start having possible after possible in the short range pretty soon. It'll be fun...get the juices going T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 0z EURO...Warning criteria snow for WNC. hour 123 Asheville area 1-2 inches hour 126 Asheville to boone area 3-4 inches hour 129 Wilkesboro...Mount Airy...Lenoir...3-4 inches (also snowing roughly from Asheville to Reidsville) hour 132 1-2 inches foothills hour 135 1-2 inches Wilkes westward ending here Probably 5-10 inches from what I am seeing on Wunderground...could be more or less don't take verbatim. Piedmont...very close. Could be a little something there since I only see specific hour frames. Does show north Winston area, Yadkin County, near the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 0z EURO...Warning criteria snow for WNC. hour 123 Asheville area 1-2 inches hour 126 Asheville to boone area 3-4 inches hour 129 Wilkesboro...Mount Airy...Lenoir...3-4 inches (also snowing roughly from Asheville to Reidsville) hour 132 1-2 inches foothills hour 135 1-2 inches Wilkes westward ending here Probably 5-10 inches from what I am seeing on Wunderground...could be more or less don't take verbatim. Piedmont...very close. Could be a little something there since I only see specific hour frames. Does show north Winston area, Yadkin County, near the cutoff. Thanks Wilkes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This alert was generated by the National Weather ServiceEMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.NOUS42 KWNO 210551ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0549Z THU FEB 21 2013TOC/GATEWAY IS HAVING SYSTEM PROBLEMS AGAIN THAT ARE AFFECTINGOBSERVATIONAL DATA FLOW. TOC HAS NUMEROUS PERSONNEL LOOKING INTOTHE ISSUE..SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 0z EURO...Warning criteria snow for WNC. hour 123 Asheville area 1-2 inches hour 126 Asheville to boone area 3-4 inches hour 129 Wilkesboro...Mount Airy...Lenoir...3-4 inches (also snowing roughly from Asheville to Reidsville) hour 132 1-2 inches foothills hour 135 1-2 inches Wilkes westward ending here Probably 5-10 inches from what I am seeing on Wunderground...could be more or less don't take verbatim. Piedmont...very close. Could be a little something there since I only see specific hour frames. Does show north Winston area, Yadkin County, near the cutoff. Looks like mainly an ice event to me. Thickness is not even close on the Euro. A 1024 high moves from off the PA shore and turns into a 1028 high that stays in Maine for one frame while the bulk of the moisture moves in. I would take that with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This alert was generated by the National Weather ServiceEMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.NOUS42 KWNO 211027ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1024Z THU FEB 21 2013TOC/GATEWAY CORRECTED THEIR EARLIER SYSTEM PROBLEMS AT 0650Z BUTIS NOW HAVING MORE SYSTEM PROBLEMS THAT ARE AFFECTINGOBSERVATIONAL DATA FLOW. TOC IS CONTACTING SUPPORT..SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This alert was generated by the National Weather Service EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server. NOUS42 KWNO 211027 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1024Z THU FEB 21 2013 TOC/GATEWAY CORRECTED THEIR EARLIER SYSTEM PROBLEMS AT 0650Z BUT IS NOW HAVING MORE SYSTEM PROBLEMS THAT ARE AFFECTING OBSERVATIONAL DATA FLOW. TOC IS CONTACTING SUPPORT.. SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Is the translation to this......0Z GFS may have been modeled incorrectly....thus no reason to panic on our upcoming chances???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 No, right now everything is on time. The issue may affect obs from the reporting stations though. They've been having issues for the last day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 No, right now everything is on time. The issue may affect obs from the reporting stations though. They've been having issues for the last day or so. So basically this has no impact on LR weather and should be in the banter thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hard to tell but it looks like the JMA has a big snow storm between 168 and 192...850's look cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hmmm... backup? This alert was generated by the National Weather ServiceEMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.NOUS42 KWNO 211210ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP AVIATION WEATHER CENTER KANSAS CITY MO1210 UTC THU FEB 21 2013BACKUP OF SDM/NCO/NCEP OPERATIONS IS IN EFFECT BY THE AVIATIONWEATHER CENTER IN KANSAS CITY MO.HIRT/LEAD FORECASTER/AWC/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hmmm... backup? This alert was generated by the National Weather Service EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server. NOUS42 KWNO 211210 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP AVIATION WEATHER CENTER KANSAS CITY MO 1210 UTC THU FEB 21 2013 BACKUP OF SDM/NCO/NCEP OPERATIONS IS IN EFFECT BY THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER IN KANSAS CITY MO. HIRT/LEAD FORECASTER/AWC/NCEP Can you help me out here? I'm still confused as to what this has to do with storm and pattern discussion for the SE. Are you thinking that because some obvs stations are out and the aviation crew is grounded in KC it will have an effect on the GFS runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You know what, just so you don't get your panties in a wad, I won't post those here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You know what, just so you don't get your panties in a wad, I won't post those here anymore. Hi Steve. I think all of really appreciate your posts and all of the work you have done on your website. I do sometimes have a hard time understanding all of the technical details and I don't know what I'm looking for and whether to celebrate or be bummed. If you could provide a brief word of explanation I think we could all learn something. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You know what, just so you don't get your panties in a wad, I won't post those here anymore. No seriously I don't understand what it has to do with it. I understand if you're talking about how the storm could affect the midwest I just have no clue what it has to do with the SE and pattern/future storm discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 No seriously I don't understand what it has to do with it. I understand if you're talking about how the storm could affect the midwest I just have no clue what it has to do with the SE and pattern/future storm discussion. I don't understand it either. Steve, Feel free to post it here if it's relevant to the discussion, which I'm assuming it is, or you probably would not have posted it. Add me to the list that doesn't understand what it means or rather how it affects things. Can you help us out? That's all we're asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I, like others, have seen the potential in the upcoming pattern the LR models have been showing and can see reason for the excitement. My problem is we need to start seeing a storm on the models. If not all we have is a bunch of potential. I haven't seen a storm the last few runs of the gfs or euro and I'm affraid we might end up w/ cold and dry. Call me crazy or call it modelogy but I like to see the models showing something and get an uneasy feeling when they're not. Hopefully the 12z runs will start to show something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I, like others, have seen the potential in the upcoming pattern the LR models have been showing and can see reason for the excitement. My problem is we need to start seeing a storm on the models. If not all we have is a bunch of potential. I haven't seen a storm the last few runs of the gfs or euro and I'm affraid we might end up w/ cold and dry. Call me crazy or call it modelogy but I like to see the models showing something and get an uneasy feeling when they're not. Hopefully the 12z runs will start to show something! A +pna is usually a dry pattern. And without a true southern stream we are left with relying on the northern branch to drop some energy out of Alaska. This is why a negative pna with a strong block can deliver. I would still keep my eye on that energy trying to come across late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This could deliver! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I, like others, have seen the potential in the upcoming pattern the LR models have been showing and can see reason for the excitement. My problem is we need to start seeing a storm on the models. If not all we have is a bunch of potential. I haven't seen a storm the last few runs of the gfs or euro and I'm affraid we might end up w/ cold and dry. Call me crazy or call it modelogy but I like to see the models showing something and get an uneasy feeling when they're not. Hopefully the 12z runs will start to show something! Wilkes says starting at hour 123 snow showing up on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I, like others, have seen the potential in the upcoming pattern the LR models have been showing and can see reason for excitement as we head into March. My problem is we need to start seeing a storm on the models. If not all we have is a bunch of potential. I haven't seen a storm the last few runs of the gfs or euro and I'm affraid we might end up w/ cold and dry. Call me crazy or call it modelogy but I like to see the models showing something and get an uneasy feeling when they're not. Hopefully the 12z runs will start to show something! I agree with you to an extent. In my mind, it's just a question of when [do we start seeing a storm]? For 7+ days out, I'm fine with seeing the players on the field. The trend for a strong west-based -NAO and a spike in the PNA continues. The energetic flow continues. So the pieces are there. To avoid the word verbatim, a perfect prog looks more cold and dry instead of snowstormish. But, come verification, things will likely line up differently. It would be nice to see a storm show up five days out and remain all the way in. But that's rarely how it works down here. But I'm with you....I want to see something legit start showing up soon that we can track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wilkes says starting at hour 123 snow showing up on the euro That is a horrible setup for us and will change in a few hours. Don't get your hopes up too much on that one. Watch for whatever wave that comes behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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