February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[LithiaWx]

18z verbatim isn't great but there is no way those storms stay that suppressed. Potential is the descriptive word I would use and leave it there.

[metalicwx366]

On his video this morning JB says around March 3 to the fifth or so, he thinks there will be a huge East Coast storm, he said he thinks it could be a big winter storm for NC and north.

Lmao. Based off a few model runs. He hasn't gotten anything right this year and along with DT continuously saying there will be a snowstorm NC and North on X-X date.

[WhiteoutWX]

I'd say that the upcoming pattern has a lot of potential given the PNA spike and appearance of blockiness in the Eastern Canada region. But at this point that's all it is, potential. Way to early to be throwing out specific dates, locations, etc.

[buckeyefan1]

It's nice to see goofy offering up some fantasy snow     Who knows, maybe it's on to something, or maybe it's just on something...lol...either way it shows mby getting some much needed rain this week  

[WilkesboroDude]

Must start somewhere...I agree with this as of now. 

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Must start somewhere...I agree with this as of now. 

 

Ray not showing the foothills no love! He's a mountain man!!! lol

[WilkesboroDude]

Ray not showing the foothills no love! He's a mountain man!!! lol

 

Verbatim it should trend in our favor from him.

 

NWS forecast high for Winston-Salem Friday: 35

Raysweather forecast high for Wilkes Friday: 44

[WilkesboroDude]

Blacksburg changing their tone...to significant Friday morning impact on travel. Good thing I don't have class.

The main feature to be concerned with during this period will be the

passage of yet another challenging and likely significant winter

weather event for Thursday night and Friday as the cold front nears

our area. Warm moist air aloft will begin to build into the area

Thursday night...however cold and dry high pressure east of the

Appalachians will keep our surface temperatures below freezing

through most of the night. Believe precipitation entering the area

late Thursday evening will start off as snow...however as warmer air

continues to build in above the surface...will see snow transition

to sleet and freezing rain for much of the area shortly after

midnight. At this point...looking for a tenth of an inch or less in

ice accumulations...with highest accumulations found along portions

of the Blue Ridge into the Greenbrier valley and the Alleghany

Highlands. A few hundredths of an inch of icing is expected for much

of the piedmonts region.

Believe this icing event will significantly impact the Friday

morning commute across the area...and latest forecast model guidance

suggests that temperatures will not rise significantly above

freezing until approaching noon...making for slow melting.

Temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 30s for Friday

afternoon highs. By Friday night...expect drying conditions as the

cold front moves east of the area...with high pressure building in

from the west.

[BIG FROSTY]

Verbatim it should trend in our favor from him.

 

NWS forecast high for Winston-Salem Friday: 35

Raysweather forecast high for Wilkes Friday: 44

 

I check out Ray's forecast sometimes, from what I've seen he's not to good forecasting weather here in the foothills... Really I think he just mostly forecast for the mountains??? I don't think we'll have much Ice anyway models not showing much moisture for us.

[WilkesboroDude]

I check out Ray's forecast sometimes, from what I've seen he's not to good forecasting weather here in the foothills... Really I think he just mostly forecast for the mountains??? I don't think we'll have much Ice anyway models not showing much moisture for us.

 

Yea he really doesn't zone in on the foothills until the day before it happens...which works out in his favor and causes him to be right more often than not. 

 

To me...much less moisture is probably what we want because that will likely mean colder than having more moisture with our luck. Little ice will warrant an advisory probably school delays/closings.

[WilkesboroDude]

Van Denton.  More on this at 10pm on the FOX8 10 O'Clock News.

[WilkesboroDude]

Huge system...even if it is just a glaze on the trees here...it is set to explode the snow-pack across the U.S. 

[calculus1]

dsaur, prepare for the flood!  This is only the precip for the 72 hours prior to hour 84 on the 00Z GFS.  7 inches of rain in just a few days for the drought-stricken areas of GA and nearby in SC.  Good stuff.

 

[metalicwx366]

dsaur, prepare for the flood! This is only the precip for the 72 hours prior to hour 84 on the 00Z GFS. 7 inches of rain in just a few days for the drought-stricken areas of GA and nearby in SC. Good stuff.

Wtf? These areas just saw 6+ inches of rain last week and we got screwed. That map is very reminiscent of the rainfall totals last week. That's creepy lol.

[tarheelwx]

NAM drops temps at GSO to 33 with over 1" qpf from hour 60-84.  Hmmmmmmm.

TW

[WilkesboroDude]

Don't take verbatim etc...0z GFS.

 

51

54

57

60

[packbacker]

If that freaking vort over the lakes scoot NE we might have something to work with day 8, it just rots away there laughing at us!

[LithiaWx]

0z gfs isn't great.

[dsaur]

dsaur, prepare for the flood!  This is only the precip for the 72 hours prior to hour 84 on the 00Z GFS.  7 inches of rain in just a few days for the drought-stricken areas of GA and nearby in SC.  Good stuff.

 

I'd love it!  I've been concentrating on the Mole Storm, but the 0z lost it, so I can look at the rains

 That's pretty far south of me.  I got around 5 the last week or so, including last night, but Macon and that line down there, got 8 to 10, and this map looks good for them again!  Still if central Ga. is getting the big rain, and Robert says it will go on, then winter is coming... I'm sure of it, lol.  The Mole Storm ought to give Macon some good ip/zr when it comes in March or late Feb. considering how much rain they have/will see )  All the way down to Shack!!!  Seriously, if this kind of rain continues into the maybe cold air, and blocking....Waa is the daemon to fear...need those lows in Fla. when they come by... sun angle, and Pdo, moon glow, ground temps,  and no snow pack won't stop the glory if they stay south of Ga, and the cold air verifies pushing deep to the gulf. If it decides to be winter finally, it'll just be winter....it won't need permission.    Tony

[GaWx]

 The 0Z Doc 10 day map's strengthening Greenland block  is a beautiful thing to see due to its implications for the days following. Now's the time to get as much sleep as possible, boys and girls.

[FallsLake]

RAH late night discussion still thinks a strong CAD will setup for Thurdays into Saturday. Some sleet and snow is possible to start - then changing to freezing rain - then changing to plain rain. But they continue to state this should be a minor event in terms of frozen/freezing precip amounts. Still I think it's going to be very interesting seeing how this CAD setups.

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE LATE WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND
HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS...WITH INCREASING
CLARITY OF FORECAST DETAILS - INCLUDING A PROBABLE PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRI - AS THE EVENT DRAWS
NEARER INTO THE SHORT TERM.

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH EVER GROWING CONFIDENCE
AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING
TOWARD...AND PLAYING CATCH UP...TO REALIZATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CAD. THE PARENT ARCTIC COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH - IN EXCESS OF 1042 MB
OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING - WILL RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD BENEATH
A STRONGLY CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME BETWEEN A VORTEX SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A DEVELOPING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER HUDSON
BAY...AND BECOME WELL-ESTABLISHED/DAMMED THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS BY THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL PHASE AND FORM A POWERFUL 150 KT UPPER JET FROM OLD
MEXICO TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL RETURN BRANCH OF THE ACCOMPANYING
THERMALLY INDIRECT CIRCULATION...WILL DRIVE A STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
REGIME/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP THE SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY LOCK THE CAD IN PLACE UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT
ERADICATES THE WEDGE SAT NIGHT.

THU NIGHT AND FRI: THE INITIAL SURGE OF LIFT WILL BE OF THE MID
LEVEL VARIETY THU NIGHT...COURTESY OF WEAK FORCING ATTENDING AN
UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY FROM THE SW CONUS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS LIFT AND SATURATION WILL SUPPORT A THICKENING AND
LOWERING MID LEVEL OVERCAST...AND ASSOCIATED ICE NUCLEATION
SATURATION. VIRGA IS ACCORDINGLY LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND BETWEEN 06-12Z.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESENCE OF ICE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC
COOLING...WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN AT THE
ONSET...WITH LITTLE TO NO FROZEN ACCUMULATION. THE SURGE OF MID
LEVEL LIFT AND SATURATION WILL BE BRIEF...HOWEVER...AND GENERATION
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO CEASE BEFORE ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OCCURS AT THE GROUND. FURTHERMORE...WARMING
OF THE MID LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WET BULB
TO OR MARGINALLY BELOW FREEZING...NEAR AND NORTH OF A LEXINGTON TO
GOLDSBORO LINE FRI MORNING...WITH LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LOW OVC AND CONTINUATION OF PERIODS OF LITTLE LIGHT (FREEZING) RAIN
AND DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS THE WET BULB FREEZING LINE AND
THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY RETREATS NORTHWARD AND
OUT OF THE RAH CWFA THROUGH NOON...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AFTER LOWS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 FRI MORNING...A MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI AS THE CAD REACHES MATURITY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S
SOUTHEAST.
 

[franklin NCwx]

Southern slider on the the euro. Euro ensemble mean is farther north and verbatim would be good for the mid upper south. At least it lost the miller b idea. Lets see how much it changes at 12z.

[POWERSTROKE]

The 0Z Doc 10 day map's strengthening Greenland block is a beautiful thing to see due to its implications for the days following. Now's the time to get as much sleep as possible, boys and girls.

Always 10 days away

[burgertime]

The Euro EPS control run is a thing of beauty for those from around just north of ATL to CLT to RDU. Now we just need the Euro to keep it, loose it, then pick it back up with 3 days to go. 

[FallsLake]

Cold Air Damming (CAD

 

[Jonesing for a chase]

The Euro EPS control run is a thing of beauty for those from around just north of ATL to CLT to RDU. Now we just need the Euro to keep it, loose it, then pick it back up with 3 days to go. 

Holy bombogenesis batman.  I know its 216 hr on Euro but a 975 low off cape lookout can really pique one's interest.

[isohume]

The constant use of the word verbatim is nauseating verbatim.

[BullCityWx]

The constant use of the word verbatim is nauseating verbatim.

And I think the Euro EPS control run has a hard time controlling itself.

[packfan98]

Looks like a lot more spread in the long range 6z GFS ensemble members than what I was seeing yesterday.  Also, the Thursday Night/Friday system looks to be wetter and further north than what I was seeing yesterday. I'm not sure if it is warmer or colder for that event.  Any updates from the overnight models would be greatly appreciated on the minor icing possibility in that time period for the Triad, foothills, northern piedmont CAD regions.

[DaculaWeather]

According to the HPC, because of the dynamics of these systems, any small change in the model input would have large variations in the output. That would be why the ensembles would have a larger than normal spread.