Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This was the way I was feeling yesterday. I'm still #Negative Nancy but feeling better today. At least we had the GFS onboard, however slim of a chance that might have been. Now we're solidly into the last week of the month before any chance of a sustained cold pattern, at the earliest. And by then, the MJO will be in the warm phases, which seem to be the only ones that actually influence the pattern. Apparently analogues point to a cold March, which since when has that worked out lately? So what do we have? Little lambsy divey and another long wait till the next warm winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Why is it when the Euro shows cold and snow and the GFS shows warm, the Euro bends to the GFS and when the GFS shows cold and snow and the Euro snows warm, the GFS bends to the Euro? It seems to work that way 90% of the time. We're going to end up wasting yet another month and have only March left. Yeah, that's going to work out. I can't believe we're going to lose this whole month. After all this MJO crap and stratospheric warming crap, it still sucks. I know they're each just one piece of the puzzle, but if nobody knows when they work and when they don't, what the heck good are they? Might as well just flip a coin. Aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhh!!!!!! Ok, I'm better now. #Negative Nancy Ancient weenie wisdom says to let this storm in the NE pass. Everyone knows that the skies must heal and if there is too much liquid it will never be cold enough to snow. Just listen to the trees my friend, they will tell you everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Why is it when the Euro shows cold and snow and the GFS shows warm, the Euro bends to the GFS and when the GFS shows cold and snow and the Euro snows warm, the GFS bends to the Euro? It seems to work that way 90% of the time. We're going to end up wasting yet another month and have only March left. Yeah, that's going to work out. I can't believe we're going to lose this whole month. After all this MJO crap and stratospheric warming crap, it still sucks. I know they're each just one piece of the puzzle, but if nobody knows when they work and when they don't, what the heck good are they? Might as well just flip a coin. Aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhh!!!!!! Ok, I'm better now. #Negative Nancy Cold rain is such a bittercaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 One can grasp at straws all we want, but the facts are this winter for most of the SE was doomed with the major Pacific related pattern change in late November. There have been variations but the large macro pattern has held that put a hurting on the difficult to make preliminary winter forecasts.This is NOT a critical comment on anyones hard work with preliminary winter forecasts. Few people have the skill to even attempt it the work that meteorologists put into it and they are highly respected and commended for it. Things can change on a dime, it's just the way weather is, but once a macro pattern establishes itself as occurred in November, watch out because it is tough to dislodge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That's gonna be a wicked pis*ah! Boston haha. Lol imagine uf the 00z ukmet was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Voted!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ancient weenie wisdom says to let this storm in the NE pass. Everyone knows that the skies must heal and if there is too much liquid it will never be cold enough to snow. Just listen to the trees my friend, they will tell you everything. All good points. In fact, the wounded ground is restless at the prospects of a steady fall of rain. The beasts of the field and the fowls of the air and strangely listless, moving erratically to and fro as if their purpose is beyond their realm of comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Cold rain is such a bittercaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Why is it when the Euro shows cold and snow and the GFS shows warm, the Euro bends to the GFS and when the GFS shows cold and snow and the Euro snows warm, the GFS bends to the Euro? It seems to work that way 90% of the time. We're going to end up wasting yet another month and have only March left. Yeah, that's going to work out. I can't believe we're going to lose this whole month. After all this MJO crap and stratospheric warming crap, it still sucks. I know they're each just one piece of the puzzle, but if nobody knows when they work and when they don't, what the heck good are they? Might as well just flip a coin. Aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhh!!!!!! Ok, I'm better now. #Negative Nancy So the cold historic pattern the consistent GFS had is gone? The pattern the Euro was trending too is gone? Who would have thunk it??? lol Add me to the negative Nancy list too!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Appreciate the votes, everyone! Voted and shared on fb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lets roll. you got it!! Next time it snows I will sub you out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lets roll. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ancient weenie wisdom says to let this storm in the NE pass. Everyone knows that the skies must heal and if there is too much liquid it will never be cold enough to snow. Just listen to the trees my friend, they will tell you everything. LOL! My favorite from yesterday was that the area will get "a good wetting". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Why is it when the Euro shows cold and snow and the GFS shows warm, the Euro bends to the GFS and when the GFS shows cold and snow and the Euro snows warm, the GFS bends to the Euro? It seems to work that way 90% of the time. We're going to end up wasting yet another month and have only March left. Yeah, that's going to work out. I can't believe we're going to lose this whole month. After all this MJO crap and stratospheric warming crap, it still sucks. I know they're each just one piece of the puzzle, but if nobody knows when they work and when they don't, what the heck good are they? Might as well just flip a coin. Aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhh!!!!!! Ok, I'm better now. #Negative Nancy It's because the models suck when it comes to forecasting snow around here outside of 24 hours. Heck, they even get it wrong sometimes within 24 hours, especially when it comes to central NC. It's just too hard for them to get it right because so much stuff has to come together just right for some reason for us to get a good snow here. Plain old rain, they can get right. Warm and sunny, they can get right. When it comes to snow it's anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Voted....up by 49 votes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilgore Trout Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Plain old rain, they can get right. Warm and sunny, they can get right. When it comes to snow it's anyone's guess. Hardly anyone ever notices if the rain amount the model forecasts is right or wrong. Nor does anyone notice if the temperature is off by a couple of degrees. These are both things the models are not perfect at (especially precip). So you combine that with the specific requirements to make snow, then of course the models will have a hard time, especially when your back yard is almost always going to be fighting issues with temperature. Forecasting snow in northern Manitoba is easy. I personally think the models do a good job of letting us know ahead of time when we can expect weather systems to move in, and I don't expect them to be accurate to a point on the map more than 24 hours out, especially when it comes to all the things that must go right for us to get winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hardly anyone ever notices if the rain amount the model forecasts is right or wrong. Nor does anyone notice if the temperature is off by a couple of degrees. These are both things the models are not perfect at (especially precip). So you combine that with the specific requirements to make snow, then of course the models will have a hard time, especially when your back yard is almost always going to be fighting issues with temperature. Forecasting snow in northern Manitoba is easy. I personally think the models do a good job of letting us know ahead of time when we can expect weather systems to move in, and I don't expect them to be accurate to a point on the map more than 24 hours out, especially when it comes to all the things that must go right for us to get winter weather. I think the best the models can do with regards to snow here is show there is potential. What actually happens is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone dare go into the MA forum. I don't even wanna click it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The long-range thread is once again getting a little chippy. Can we not relax, guys? We can't do anything to control the weather. We all want it to snow, but it doesn't do any good to constantly whine about it not snowing. Maybe we have to wait until next winter. Oh, well. We wait. Yeah, it sucks, but we don't need lots of posts stating the obvious. Anyway, I wanted to comment on a few things from that thread, but I didn't want to add unnecessary clutter. So, here are my thoughts: you know this is the same old same old, never anything promising, always a let down, I know I shouldn't get my hopes up for a VD storm but you can't help but a little bit and then its never a positive looking outlook its always a negative, a looking worse or not showing as much precip as before. I'm worn out from the whole winter being this way. You would think we would have one storm that would hold together with a cold source around but it never happens. I've about had it, really ready for spring. You don't really mean this. You would take a foot of snow tomorrow, if you could get it. You're just frustrated. Why do you let the weather control your emotions? There was never any reason to be optimistic about the alleged VD system in the first place. That's the problem with false hopes, it creates letdown and disappointment that is unnecessary. If people are disappointed, then that's their own problem. I don't get this idea of "false hope." If a storm pops up on a long-range model, let's talk about it. Why not? It's a weather board. If it goes away, it goes away. We don't need to shield the vulnerable members of our weather board because they can't handle fluctuations in modeling. If people are so emotionally tied to the weather outside that they cease to be able to function in their normal lives, then they've got their own issues. Maybe we need to create a program like American Wx Anonymous (another AA) or set up a help line for those that have problems with the wild swings from one model to the next ("Weather models got you down? Your backyard not full of snow? We're here to help!! Call 1.888.... and our operators and counselors are standing by to assist you.) Yeah, sorry, but that might barely meet the technical definition of a -NAO, but it isn't helping us at all. And that PNA is pathetic. Terrible pattern. (As a side note, these anomoly maps are really starting to annoy me. Very decieving and of limited usefulness. If you look at the Day 10 Euro in the Atlantic, there is weak ridging that is way east based -- the main high pressure is also well south. It's not accomplishing ANYTHING as far as acting as true blocking. These anomoly maps have shown below normal heights in the eastern US in the extended range time after time -- not accurate or reliable and not a good predictor of possible winter weather). I guess if they annoy you, you don't have to look at them, but many respected mets refer to these charts quite often. I don't think we should police which maps get to be posted and which don't. But, they're long-range forecasts just like any other 10-day+ map that might be posted. It's got a great chance of being wrong, as does any other long-range map. But, so what? It's an output from a weather model. We can talk about it. It's a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Why is it when the Euro shows cold and snow and the GFS shows warm, the Euro bends to the GFS and when the GFS shows cold and snow and the Euro snows warm, the GFS bends to the Euro? It seems to work that way 90% of the time. We're going to end up wasting yet another month and have only March left. Yeah, that's going to work out. I can't believe we're going to lose this whole month. After all this MJO crap and stratospheric warming crap, it still sucks. I know they're each just one piece of the puzzle, but if nobody knows when they work and when they don't, what the heck good are they? Might as well just flip a coin. Aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhh!!!!!! Ok, I'm better now. #Negative Nancy CR, CR, CR.....such angst can stranglelize you! You need to subsume your desires within a greater cause. What you do is wish for rain for Tony. Unlike snow for CR, rain for Tony is doable. It is a selfless act that will bring you pleasure seeing Tony's shining face as he cavorts about amongst the rain drops! And you see, Tony is unencumbered with worries about what the Pacific, or the Atlantic is doing. He cares not for the blocking that may or may not exist. Tony knows....for he has seen... that rain is the all important feature. If you have rain in winter, you have a chance. He has gone to bed with it pouring rain, and awakened to it pouring sleet, or snow. If it did it once, nay ten times, it can do it again. Too much science puts doubts into weenie minds. Until there is an infallable predictor, all is on the table still. Let it rain in winter, and takest thou thy chances! Better yet, give the chances to Tony. So put aside your personal woes, and wish for rain for Tony. YOu'll feel better, he'll feel better, and since it's winter, and raining, he might get some ip/sn and he'll send you a picture of it, to show you how your selfless act can affect the happiness of others!! Here to help you cope...your pal, T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The long-range thread is once again getting a little chippy. Can we not relax, guys? We can't do anything to control the weather. We all want it to snow, but it doesn't do any good to constantly whine about it not snowing. Maybe we have to wait until next winter. Oh, well. We wait. Yeah, it sucks, but we don't need lots of posts stating the obvious. Anyway, I wanted to comment on a few things from that thread, but I didn't want to add unnecessary clutter. So, here are my thoughts: You don't really mean this. You would take a foot of snow tomorrow, if you could get it. You're just frustrated. Why do you let the weather control your emotions? If people are disappointed, then that's their own problem. I don't get this idea of "false hope." If a storm pops up on a long-range model, let's talk about it. Why not? It's a weather board. If it goes away, it goes away. We don't need to shield the vulnerable members of our weather board because they can't handle fluctuations in modeling. If people are so emotionally tied to the weather outside that they cease to be able to function in their normal lives, then they've got their own issues. Maybe we need to create a program like American Wx Anonymous (another AA) or set up a help line for those that have problems with the wild swings from one model to the next ("Weather models got you down? Your backyard not full of snow? We're here to help!! Call 1.888.... and our operators and counselors are standing by to assist you.) I guess if they annoy you, you don't have to look at them, but many respected mets refer to these charts quite often. I don't think we should police which maps get to be posted and which don't. But, they're long-range forecasts just like any other 10-day+ map that might be posted. It's got a great chance of being wrong, as does any other long-range map. But, so what? It's an output from a weather model. We can talk about it. It's a weather board. I agree...I don't understand the complaining posts either....geez, it's the SE and we simply don't have brutal winter wx from Dec through Mar like some seem to indicate. In fact, I wouldn't like that kind of winter anyway. The nice thing about living here is the non brutal nature of the winter weather which a few winter storms sprinkled in. Last I looked it is still early Feb anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The long-range thread is once again getting a little chippy. Can we not relax, guys? We can't do anything to control the weather. We all want it to snow, but it doesn't do any good to constantly whine about it not snowing. Maybe we have to wait until next winter. Oh, well. We wait. Yeah, it sucks, but we don't need lots of posts stating the obvious. Anyway, I wanted to comment on a few things from that thread, but I didn't want to add unnecessary clutter. So, here are my thoughts: You don't really mean this. You would take a foot of snow tomorrow, if you could get it. You're just frustrated. Why do you let the weather control your emotions? If people are disappointed, then that's their own problem. I don't get this idea of "false hope." If a storm pops up on a long-range model, let's talk about it. Why not? It's a weather board. If it goes away, it goes away. We don't need to shield the vulnerable members of our weather board because they can't handle fluctuations in modeling. If people are so emotionally tied to the weather outside that they cease to be able to function in their normal lives, then they've got their own issues. Maybe we need to create a program like American Wx Anonymous (another AA) or set up a help line for those that have problems with the wild swings from one model to the next ("Weather models got you down? Your backyard not full of snow? We're here to help!! Call 1.888.... and our operators and counselors are standing by to assist you.) I guess if they annoy you, you don't have to look at them, but many respected mets refer to these charts quite often. I don't think we should police which maps get to be posted and which don't. But, they're long-range forecasts just like any other 10-day+ map that might be posted. It's got a great chance of being wrong, as does any other long-range map. But, so what? It's an output from a weather model. We can talk about it. It's a weather board. Lol!! Calc. I want to join your AWA, if nothing else to watch the implosions with great glee, lol. It's a good idea, and one you should organize, especially if you can have a handy cliff about T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lol!! Calc. I want to join your AWA, if nothing else to watch the implosions with great glee, lol. It's a good idea, and one you should organize, especially if you can have a handy cliff about T Thanks! I like the idea of hosting this on a cliff. Then, we could talk about controlling impulses. The first time they come to the meeting, they all immediately rush off the cliff compelled like lemmings. Over time, and subsequent therapy sessions, they walk to the cliff before jumping off. Who knows? Eventually, they might be able to stay for an entire meeting without jumping off the cliff at all. Then, we will have conquered the inner weenie. Hmm...This has potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree...I don't understand the complaining posts either....geez, it's the SE and we simply don't have brutal winter wx from Dec through Mar like some seem to indicate. In fact, I wouldn't like that kind of winter anyway. The nice thing about living here is the non brutal nature of the winter weather which a few winter storms sprinkled in. Last I looked it is still early Feb anyway.... I liked you post on the other thread. You, sir/ma'am, seem to have age, and/or wisdon as you understand that winter is usually not over, until it's over, lol. Chances abound until the last freeze No matter what models, or experts may say, nature has the last word, in these matters. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone dare go into the MA forum. I don't even wanna click it. Nope I can't look. Already let down so far this winter. I couldn't stand to look at the forecast for them or snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I liked you post on the other thread. You, sir/ma'am, seem to have age, and/or wisdon as you understand that winter is usually not over, until it's over, lol. Chances abound until the last freeze No matter what models, or experts may say, nature has the last word, in these matters. T Thx....yes, I have a few years under my belt (43) and have seen a lot living in NC all of my life. It's never over until mid to late March for me and by that time I'm ready for a warm up. Funny thing is, I really don't like the cold weather/winter much at all. I just enjoy following storm systems and potential storms. I'd much rather have a hot/humid day with thunderstorms than cold and dreary..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 1.)Sure feels like it could snow. 2.) Had you rather have 1 epic snow or 6 small storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thx....yes, I have a few years under my belt (43) and have seen a lot living in NC all of my life. It's never over until mid to late March for me and by that time I'm ready for a warm up. Funny thing is, I really don't like the cold weather/winter much at all. I just enjoy following storm systems and potential storms. I'd much rather have a hot/humid day with thunderstorms than cold and dreary..... To me it's the inordinate difficulty of getting something frozen, even where you are. A tornado is easier to get in Ga. most years, than something frozen. Now, I love the cold, and have lately come to intensely dislike the heat, and I think most of the mental distress is being caused by the lack of true cold in the last 3 years In me, the disconnect between liking all weather, and yet beginning to dislike heat and humidity, is confusing, but after 65 years of winter frustration, a little confusion over summer time weather is easy to assimilate, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks! I like the idea of hosting this on a cliff. Then, we could talk about controlling impulses. The first time they come to the meeting, they all immediately rush off the cliff compelled like lemmings. Over time, and subsequent therapy sessions, they walk to the cliff before jumping off. Who knows? Eventually, they might be able to stay for an entire meeting without jumping off the cliff at all. Then, we will have conquered the inner weenie. Hmm...This has potential... I'd like to devise the test situations, please The one that always works for me is the Heavy Snow Warning. This is a masterful plan for weenie destruction devised by the Nat Weather Service. The end game here is to have the warning up to the Ala line, but not over, though the best I ever saw, more personally destructive than anything I've had to go through, was in the 70's where the HSW was in effect, the snows were piling up just to the west, I was outside waiting...and waiting....and waiting...then went inside to discover the energy had jumped Ga. and a nor'easter was being born, while I never saw the first flake. Beware the Heavy Snow Warning...if will either destroy you, or make you stronger, but you'll never see the heavy snow, lol. It's the Kobayashi Maru of winter weather in Ga. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 1.)Sure feels like it could snow. 2.) Had you rather have 1 epic snow or 6 small storms? Depends on what you are calling 6 small, and how close together they are. Other than that, my usual answer would be give me an epic event and I'd be more than happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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