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Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

Midlo Snow Maker

By Midlo Snow Maker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted

As WinterWxLuvr points out often and correctly no need to get to attached to any one model run. If you don't like the most recent run, just wait as it will change on the next one. I am encouraged by seeing south stream activity on the last couple of GFS runs. Let's not get to worried about temps or storm track. Just good to see precip and in some cases lot of precip showing up.

we have alot of precip this week but none of it is snow

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

As WinterWxLuvr points out often and correctly no need to get to attached to any one model run. If you don't like the most recent run, just wait as it will change on the next one. I am encouraged by seeing south stream activity on the last couple of GFS runs. Let's not get to worried about temps or storm track. Just good to see precip and in some cases lot of precip showing up.

I think there's things to like on the GFS. Last week we were disappointed that we didn't get the big storm, but looking back it was o good winter week. Would we all take another week like it starting Thursday? I'd say we all would. Well it looks cold with a few light precip chances during that time. And the big plus is it looks stormy long term. Give us enough precip, we'll score. Just like AP, give him the ball enough, he'll take it to the house eventually.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

Just to add, it's this constant looking 10 days ahead for the big blizzard that makes winter seem such a short season for many of us. Enjoy the day, focus on the two or three days in front.

We had snow Wed night, Friday, Saturday, and ice today. Its been below freezing almost continually since last Monday. I know we haven't seen a big snow, but I think you miss out on fun by expecting too much. If we can't like the past week, then it really is going to be a crappy place for winter for people in this region.

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted

Just to add, it's this constant looking 10 days ahead for the big blizzard that makes winter seem such a short season for many of us. Enjoy the day, focus on the two or three days in front.

We had snow Wed night, Friday, Saturday, and ice today. Its been below freezing almost continually since last Monday. I know we haven't seen a big snow, but I think you miss out on fun by expecting too much. If we can't like the past week, then it really is going to be a crappy place for winter for people in this region.

 

+10,000, good post.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

As WinterWxLuvr points out often and correctly no need to get to attached to any one model run. If you don't like the most recent run, just wait as it will change on the next one. I am encouraged by seeing south stream activity on the last couple of GFS runs. Let's not get to worried about temps or storm track. Just good to see precip and in some cases lot of precip showing up.

 

Oh, I don't dispute that the southern stream has been looking like it will get going, and that's a good thing overall I think.  I'm not looking so much at exact storm tracks or even exact temperatures for a particular event.  Nor am I even looking for a big storm.  Just a pattern that looks supportive of...something decent and realistic.  However, I am concerned by the lack of blocking and the amount of cold air that's around.  I don't like to see the flow lifting out like that, though it doesn't look "torchy."

 

And yes, if one doesn't like this run of the GFS, just wait for the next one (or two) later on...ha!  Sounds like "if you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes" (was it Mark Twain who said that?).

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

Just to add, it's this constant looking 10 days ahead for the big blizzard that makes winter seem such a short season for many of us. Enjoy the day, focus on the two or three days in front.

We had snow Wed night, Friday, Saturday, and ice today. Its been below freezing almost continually since last Monday. I know we haven't seen a big snow, but I think you miss out on fun by expecting too much. If we can't like the past week, then it really is going to be a crappy place for winter for people in this region.

 

Good points for the most part.  It's no good to keep looking at day 10+ for the big blizzard.  The past week has been interesting in its own right in terms of the cold; I think the DC area saw some of its coldest temperatures since at least 2009-10, maybe even before then.  The light clipper snows were cool...and I have to say I'm always amazed that those cold clipper-like systems can somehow make just 1/2" snow or so look quite pretty (everything is cold enough that it lays down a blanket everywhere).  Not saying that to be sarcastic, I was quite honestly thinking this the other day while walking around in it.

 

That all said, let's not gild the lily too much here.  There may be some here who are unrealistically expecting a big storm.  But let's face it, it's excruciating to not even get a decent 3-5", 4-8" moderate event at all.  Not one.  Since late January 2011, in fact.  So in many ways, it does feel disappointing that we can only squeeze out a couple of half inch clippers during our best cold air in a long time.  Not saying people don't or cannot appreciate the snow we did get, but I'm sure many are saying "come on, already, for cryin' out loud!"

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easternsnowman

easternsnowman

Posted
Posted

Just to add, it's this constant looking 10 days ahead for the big blizzard that makes winter seem such a short season for many of us. Enjoy the day, focus on the two or three days in front.

We had snow Wed night, Friday, Saturday, and ice today. Its been below freezing almost continually since last Monday. I know we haven't seen a big snow, but I think you miss out on fun by expecting too much. If we can't like the past week, then it really is going to be a crappy place for winter for people in this region.

I agree people expect too much, the burbs of the big cities have'nt done that bad, the cities....different story.

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted

Just to add, it's this constant looking 10 days ahead for the big blizzard that makes winter seem such a short season for many of us. Enjoy the day, focus on the two or three days in front.

We had snow Wed night, Friday, Saturday, and ice today. Its been below freezing almost continually since last Monday. I know we haven't seen a big snow, but I think you miss out on fun by expecting too much. If we can't like the past week, then it really is going to be a crappy place for winter for people in this region.

When you put it like that I guess it was a pretty solid week of winter, just would have liked to do a little better with the clippers.

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

Just to add, it's this constant looking 10 days ahead for the big blizzard that makes winter seem such a short season for many of us. Enjoy the day, focus on the two or three days in front.

We had snow Wed night, Friday, Saturday, and ice today. Its been below freezing almost continually since last Monday. I know we haven't seen a big snow, but I think you miss out on fun by expecting too much. If we can't like the past week, then it really is going to be a crappy place for winter for people in this region.

 

Nice post. We are almost half way to climo. So no complaining here. I know the cities have been screwed so far this winter. But we still have a solid 6 week window for everyone to score. And like has been said the models have really had issues with the long range this winter. 

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

I agree with a lot of the points made today and how our expectations should be. However, I just wanted to note something about the ECMWF. The split in the jet happened 2/2-2/4 with the ensemble mean a little bit ahead of the operational member on bringing in the Pacific system 2/5-2/6. Since the operational is so amplified and slower, things look warm and without a STJ. Yes, it is true there will be warming in the Plains ahead of this feature, regardless of its speed; but, the lack of a STJ is not really the case. I just think the way this manifests is going to cause a lot of mayhem. I think I'm leaning toward a more progressive solution like the ECMWF ensembles and GFS suite than the op euro.

 

 

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RIC_WX

RIC_WX

Posted
Posted

Looks like December and January will both finish well above normal here with temperatures and below normal precip.  A normal February would potentially be a huge accomplishment, and almost certainly deliver a few inches of elusive snowfall. 

 

Perhaps we finish the season with November and March as our only below normal months.  It would make the winter feel longer than usual at least.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

Here is a quick POP over the last few weeks. Thanks guys!

I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between 1)Jan 7-10 will see a warm up over the east with a 2)short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for 3)Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving 4)Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a 5)second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. My GWO analogs only take me out to Jan 9 so there may be another short wave or two to add to the 2 already expected for the Jan 9-24 time frame. I will update as the newest GWO numbers come out over the next week and half.

 

Correction to forecast Jan 5 on warm for Jan 11-13 time frame....

 

Posted by QVectorman on 5 January 2013 - 03:11 PM in New England

I had conflicting strat and GWO signals for the 10-13 time frame and I assumed that the strat signal for cold would over whelm the GWO signal for warmth and the cold air would dominate for that time frame. But the GFS seems to be hinting that the GWO will dominate instead for that time frame. 6)Which would change it to warm from Jan 8-10 then a fall in 850 temps for 1 or 2 days after peak in 850 temps then a spike in 850 temps Jan 11-13 which would put us back on track to a fall in 850 temps 1 or 2 days after that which lines up with the Jan 15-19 time cold pocket that I have forecasted previously. I still stand by a shortwave tracking through the central/eastern US although it may be weak Jan 10-11 as I stated last month.

 

It appears the Jan 20-24 cold shot should be comparable in magnitude of the upcoming Jan 2-3 airmass. Also latest GWO numbers are currently trending towards an agreement of the Jan 20-24 date. I will have concrete confirmation or rejection of that assumption by Tues.

Extending the outlook 7)Jan 24-26 show up as next pocket of cooler air...although I will say signals are mixed on this window date so I'm not too confident on this time frame producing a cooler airmass for the MW/NE.

Although 8)Jan 26-30 looks very impressive and should out do the Jan 2-3 850mb cold air wrt temps.

I will also say that it appears a lot of these dates are back to back and should mention that these forecasted chunks of cooler/colder air are cooler/colder relative to the air in place that they displace. So I don't claim to know the temperature range of the 850mb temps arriving...The concept can only forecast that it will be "colder" than the one that will be in place at the time of it's arrival and are associated with shortwaves so there will be brief time frames of southerly winds ahead of the short waves that will produce WAA ahead of waves and as a result might produce brief minor spikes in 850 temps and sfc temps in transition from time frame to time frame. When the signals are stronger an estimation of the temp of the air is possible such as the Jan. 2-3 and Jan 20-24 and Jan 26-30 episode. The other time frames are just hiccups in the stat. signal and coincide to minor dips in sfc temperatures relative to previous days' highs but I figure they are worth mentioning.

Forecast of -33C temps along Canadian border...although I was about 4 days off and I adjusted the Jan 26-30 date to Jan 27-29 back on Jan 6.

The GWO analogs eluded to this second warm up all the way back on Dec. 14. It will be short lived with the warmest air being tempered by cooler/colder air arriving in the Jan 15-19 range moving into the Jan 20-25 range with much colder air. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 15-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border.  With shortwaves arriving with more cold air for Jan 24-27 and Jan 27-29 and Feb 1-5. Though it appears the last week of Jan into Feb again would be the coldest air. Of course as stated before the caveat to these is how strong is the southerly flow ahead of these shortwaves that will also produce a spike in temps a day or two before the wave. So a strong wave will have a strong flow and could really spike temps for a day or two before it's arrive too. 

1)Jan 7-10 will see a warm up over the east

2)short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11

3)Cooler Jan 10-13 -----CORRECTED in 6)

4)Cold Jan 15-19 time frame  

5)second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24

6)warm from Jan 8-10 then a fall in 850 temps for 1 or 2 days after peak in 850 temps then a spike in 850 temps Jan 11-13

7)Jan 24-26 pocket of cooler air  

8)Jan 26-30 cold or S/W-->Jan 27-29

I covered the S/W verification for event 2) for Jan 10-11 a couple weeks ago in my last POP post along with Event 1 so quick

run down of the rest of these...The correction I made on Jan 5 for warmer temps jan 10-13 was off by a day as the warmest temps occured on Jan 14. I was off by about 1.5 days on the coldest temps, they settled in Jan22/23 not the 24/25 like I expected. But we did see -33C at the MN/Can border on Jan 21. The Jan 27-29 cold shot didn't materialize the S/W is there but it didn't track far enough east to bring down any cold air so we have warmer temps east of the MS. Then on top of that we have another S/W right on it's heels that I spoke about back on Jan 18th which has strong southerly flow ahead of it that will spike temps for the 29 and 30th with just as strong cold blast behind it. This is one of those situations that I always had disclaimers about LOL.

post-3697-0-98986400-1359412571_thumb.jp

850 temps for Jan 21

post-3697-0-47262400-1359412633_thumb.jp

SW for Jan 27

post-3697-0-95927700-1359412644_thumb.jp

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

Last half of Feb looks banging with plenty of S/W's. Recap we had xt RTW that was in the pacific last wednesday arrived on the 24 early 25th in a couple pieces. The RWT that was over India last week is still expected to arrive Feb 4 or 5 it appears as a clipper. Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7. Then Feb 7 or 8 another RWT which was over Africa last week should arrive and colder air moving in behind it for Feb 7-11. This one started off at a pretty high latitude so I believe it will be a weak clipper. It appears after that we will see at LEAST at 5-10 degree warm up for Feb. 11-13 ahead of the next
system that will pass through the east Feb 14 or 15 with a quick shot of cooler air behind it before another S/W arrives Feb 18 or 19th (tentative) The pattern is really chaotic as HM, others and myself have noted so it's harder to bit on the signals 4 weeks out right now so I am waiting for newer GWO data to reconfirm or disprove my thoughts about S/W's beyond Feb 14, part of the reason why I left the Feb 18/19 S/W tentative because the arrival date may change +/-1 day. But tentative dates I have for other S/W's and shots of cooler air are feb 21-25 and Feb 27-March 3.

In regards to over all temps rehashing last week's ideas the vortex is forecasted to re-consolidate by the 29th As a result, the main PV will restrengthen it's vortex walls and the gushing cold air faucet will be turned off. Just as there is a 1-3 week lag for it to arrive here there should be a 1-3 week lag of the last pockets of cold air to arrive down here in the US. Which would line up to carry us through with colder air to just about middle of Feb. So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see normal to slightly above normal anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory
after Jan 29....when the PV re-consolidates. Also matches up with the MJO dynamical forecasts that would take us into phase 2/3 by mid Feb resulting in a warmer or more seasonable scenario for the last half of Feb. I just have a feeling when using the strat. and GWO analogs that the base state of the 850 temps for Feb will be warmer so the cooler air won't be as cold over the region like we have for the end of Jan. Snowfall across the region looks about normal to slightly above normal. Big winners look like a line from KS to upper WI for Feb. I think as the general storm track shifts west with a -PNA for the second half of the month.

I don't see the demise of winter though. My 3 month temp analogs have March running near normal across the Atlantic states and below normal for the GLKS. So there is a gradient there. Along with a snow gradient...GLKS cashes in for Marchs while the Atlantic can either be near normal or just horrendous snowfall totals. Seems to be dependent on the PDO. If the PDO can avg. above .5 for about 4-6 weeks during Feb or early March then the Atlantic sees near normal snowfall if the PDO is below .5 or negative the Atlantic get's screwed. And with a PDO>.5 the NE sees below normal temps also. IDK...just and interesting trend I noticed in my neutral ENSO years. Who knows if it's statistically significant.

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