QVectorman

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  1. This is the WAFB tv station app I found. It uses WSI's RPM model and you can pan all around the US. Unfortunately it only showed simulated radar out to 6 hours at most. Some days it only is run out to 4 hours ahead.
  2. Thanks! Still looking for that elusive mt. torque product. You have any idea how to calculate it or where to find it?
  3. Anyone know where to find GLAMM and mt. torque products besides the ESRL site? The ESRL says that the meteorologist that was generating them retired and it appears that they have stopped being calculated back on Oct 15.
  4. I think we have to lay down at least two thirds our snow by mid Feb then the middle of the month goes normal or slightly above normal in the temp dept. of course normal temps aren't too hard to get snow in either so I guess it doesn't really matter. I think the main storm track shifting further west by mid month will be more of the dominate factor. As for March like I said it depends on what the PDO does in Feb. looking at the current configuration with the Aleutian low gaining strength it would play into the typical atm pattern of a +PDO, but does that translate into +PDO SSTA is the question. Which like I said seems to be a weird quark in my data in correlation to snowfall for the NE/MA regions for neutral ENSO years. I said cooler...not colder haha. It's all relative to what the temps in place will be. I mean cooler could be 35 down to 25 or it could be 50 down to 40. Although the latter I don't see happening, temps like I said look to be just floating around climo for the second half of the month maybe a tad on the + side but not too much.
  5. Last half of Feb looks banging with plenty of S/W's. Recap....we had xt RTW that was in the pacific last wednesday arrived on the 24 early 25th in a couple pieces. The RWT that was over India last week is still expected to arrive Feb 4 or 5 it appears as a clipper. Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7. Then Feb 7 or 8 another RWT which was over Africa last week should arrive and colder air moving in behind it for Feb 7-11. This one started off at a pretty high latitude so I believe it will be a weak clipper. It appears after that we will see at LEAST at 5-10 degree warm up for Feb. 11-13 ahead of the next system that will pass through the east Feb 14 or 15 with a quick shot of cooler air behind it before another S/W arrives Feb 18 or 19th (tentative)The pattern is really chaotic as HM, others and myself have noted so it's harder to bit on the signals 4 weeks out right now so I am waiting for newer GWO data to reconfirm or disprove my thoughts about S/W's beyond Feb 14, part of the reason why I left the Feb 18/19 S/W tentative because the arrival date may change +/-1 day. But tentative dates I have for other S/W's and shots of cooler air are feb 21-25 and Feb 27-March 3.
  6. Here is a quick POP over the last few weeks. Thanks guys! Correction to forecast Jan 5 on warm for Jan 11-13 time frame.... Posted by QVectorman on 5 January 2013 - 03:11 PM in New England I had conflicting strat and GWO signals for the 10-13 time frame and I assumed that the strat signal for cold would over whelm the GWO signal for warmth and the cold air would dominate for that time frame. But the GFS seems to be hinting that the GWO will dominate instead for that time frame. 6)Which would change it to warm from Jan 8-10 then a fall in 850 temps for 1 or 2 days after peak in 850 temps then a spike in 850 temps Jan 11-13 which would put us back on track to a fall in 850 temps 1 or 2 days after that which lines up with the Jan 15-19 time cold pocket that I have forecasted previously. I still stand by a shortwave tracking through the central/eastern US although it may be weak Jan 10-11 as I stated last month. Forecast of -33C temps along Canadian border...although I was about 4 days off and I adjusted the Jan 26-30 date to Jan 27-29 back on Jan 6. 1)Jan 7-10 will see a warm up over the east 2)short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 3)Cooler Jan 10-13 -----CORRECTED in 6) 4)Cold Jan 15-19 time frame 5)second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24 6)warm from Jan 8-10 then a fall in 850 temps for 1 or 2 days after peak in 850 temps then a spike in 850 temps Jan 11-13 7)Jan 24-26 pocket of cooler air 8)Jan 26-30 cold or S/W-->Jan 27-29 I covered the S/W verification for event 2) for Jan 10-11 a couple weeks ago in my last POP post along with Event 1 so quick run down of the rest of these...I was off by about 1.5 days on the coldest temps, they settled in Jan 23 not the 24/25 like I expected. But we did see -33C at the MN/Can border on Jan 21. The Jan 27-29 cold shot didn't materialize the S/W is there but it didn't track far enough east to bring down any cold air so we have warmer temps east of the MS. Then on top of that we have another S/W right on it's heels that I spoke about back on Jan 18th which has strong southerly flow ahead of it that will spike temps for the 29 and 30th with just as strong cold blast behind it. This is one of those situations that I always had disclaimers about LOL. This is Albany's meteogram. 850 temps for Jan 21 SW for Jan 27
  7. Last half of Feb looks banging with plenty of S/W's though. I gave you guys my forecast through Feb.11 last Sunday. I will write a more indepth forecast and POP of the last 3 weeks on Monday or something. But it looks like Feb 11-13 will be another 5-10 degree warm up ahead of a S/W arriving the 14 or 15th with colder air behind it for Feb 15-17. Strat. analogs are showing 4 storms in a week and a half period for the second half of Feb. I'm waiting for more GWO data though before I confirm and jump on the bandwagon for such an active pattern. Although this would jive with the thoughts of a snowy pattern for the Plains/upper MS valley and the NE still ending up with about normal snowfall while at the same time having above normal temps for the month....just plenty of opportunities to score while getting screwed on others.
  8. Still going with last week's idea that the vortex is forecasted to re-consolidate by the 29th As a result, the main PV will restrengthen it's vortex walls and the gushing cold air faucet will be turned off. Just as there is a 1-3 week lag for it to arrive here there should be a 1-3 week lag of the last pockets of cold air to arrive down here in the US. Which would line up to carry us through with colder air to just about middle of Feb. So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see normal to slightly above normal anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory after Jan 29....when the PV re-consolidates. Also matches up with the MJO dynamical forecasts that would take us into phase 2/3 by mid Feb resulting in a warmer or more seasonable scenario for the last half of Feb. I just have a feeling when using the strat. and GWO analogs that the base state of the 850 temps for Feb will be warmer so the cooler air won't be as cold over the region like we have for the end of Jan. Snowfall across the region looks about normal to slightly above normal. Big winners look like a line from KS to upper WI for Feb. I think as the general storm track shifts west with a -PNA for the second half of the month. I don't see the demise of winter though. My 3 month analogs have March running near normal across the NE and below normal for the GLKS. So there is a gradient there. Along with a snow gradient...GLKS cashes in for March's while the NE can either be near normal or just horrendous snowfall totals. Seems to be dependent on the PDO. If the PDO can avg. above .5 for about 4-6 weeks during Feb or early March then the NE sees near normal snowfall if the PDO is below .5 or negative the NE get's screwed. And with a PDO>.5 the NE sees below normal temps also. IDK...just and interesting trend I noticed in my neutral ENSO years. Who knows if it's statistically significant.
  9. Well...crap...just opened up the GWO site and they revised the revised GWO this morning lol if that makes sense. But anyways it results in good news for everyone. The warm signal for Feb 7-8 has been removed and replaced with a cold one that indicates a cold shot for the time frame Feb 7-11. Which obviously still matches the xt-RTW in Africa's arrival on Feb 7/8 to the east coast. I think it may just be the same result as we were discussing with the d9-10 event where the warm sector is smaller so it doesn't show up in analogs but still expect the possibility of pre frontal warmth.
  10. D9-10 warm up...if it transpires will be a result of prefrontal warmth and only last 24-36 hrs which I always have mention in my previous forecasts...the stronger the storm the stronger the southerly flow ahead of it 1-2 days prior to the S/W's arrival. I just forgot to add it this time. I believe the other dates Feb 3-4, 7-8 show up as temp spikes in the analogs because they will cover a much larger geographical area. This warm sector appears to be getting smaller and smaller with each run.
  11. Alright guys...this is a CRAZY period coming up...it took me a couple hours to get all these dates straightened out for the exact sequences of events because there are just soooo many signals coming in from the GWO/strat/CCKW/RWT and having to piece the time frames together. It's like a jig saw puzzle...as I said I know some of this is already covered by the GFS and I did cover some of these dates back on Fri night. But here it is again and then extending and adding in some missing pieces of the puzzle. So we have the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Models struggling with whether it merges with a S/W from the south. That's brings the cooler air for Jan 26-29 and then of course the S/W for the 30th on the GFS that supplies the reinforcement of colder air for my Jan 31-Feb 2 time frame (this one looks like a decent shot...as I stated a couple weeks ago) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 3-4 (pre-frontal warmth) ahead of the next RWT (over India) expected to arrive Feb 4/5. (BTW I was able to narrow down the warm spike with the latest GWO numbers and RWT timing.) Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to). Then Feb 7-8 will be another 5-10 degree pre-frontal warm up ahead of another RWT (currently over Africa) and cooler air moving in behind it for Feb 9-11. So here are the dates I have for cold and warm periods...I just color codes them. LOL. Aqua-cooler Blue-colder Orange-warmer +5-10F Red-Torch +10-15F Jan 26-29 Jan 31-Feb 2 Feb 3-4 Feb 5-7 Feb 7-8 Feb 9-11 Now this is were we get into to shaky territory and lots of theory in this from myself....The vortex is forecasted to re-consolidate in the next 10 days. As a result, the main PV will restrengthen it's vortex walls and gushing cold air faucet will be turned off. Just as there is a 1-3 week lag for it to arrive here there should be a 1-3 week lag of the last pockets of cold air to arrive down here in the US. Which would line up to carry us through with colder air to just about middle of Feb. So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see warm anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory after Jan 28....when the PV re-consolidates. I still have S/W's with intrusions of cooler air marked for feb 13-17 and feb 17-20 time frames. I just have a feeling the base state of the 850 temps will be warmer so the cooler air won't be as cold as say -20 to -15C over the region like we have for the end of Jan. As we move down the road and more GWO data accumulates I will be able to fill in the Feb. 11-20 time frame with more exact dates as I have done with the above.
  12. Oh gosh! The pressure! LOL We are only half way through. Still plenty of time to trip and fall on my face haha. Especially with Feb...its second half is looking pretty sketchy. Thanks though!
  13. :wub: Thanks fellas. Glad to be able to contribute to such an great sub forum! You all make this place just as great by your posts of questions, obs etc. to keeping up good convos and making for a great read! I'm just wondering how we get more interaction from HM and TT. HM has abandoned us for the Philly thread LOL. Coastal is great, he keeps this place rolling and posts good info. Can always count on him and CTRain.
  14. Thanks I appreciate it. I don't know about HM and TT but it's nice that you guys say something in here from time to time letting us know ppl are reading it. Otherwise, at least to me it feels like it's falling on deaf ears sometimes in other forums and it makes you lose the interest in spending the time to write the stuff up if you think no one is reading it. But you guys have been very supportive and I always appreciate CoastalWx chiming in on my posts and adding to my verification of my forecasts. It's not a patting on back thing its just knowing that your time is being used productively rather than wasted if no one wants to hear it or pays attention.