weathafella Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Verbatim warning snows for most. Similar in ways to the 12Z GFS today where another impulse blows up and runs up the coast grazing eastern areas for some secondary snow Saturday morning. As is, we'd have plenty of snow on the ground if this solution came to be because it would probably be high ratio stuff. A SWFE redeveloper under SNE but verbatim pretty bad for NYC southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Good lord! Euro makes it even colder next weekend than midweek! It's an OP model way out in time but it has subzero to the coast under the Pike and only MAYBE 10 for a high Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Verbatim warning snows for most. Similar in ways to the 12Z GFS today where another impulse blows up and runs up the coast grazing eastern areas for some secondary snow Saturday morning. Yeah, I'd take that and run... too bad we're still 6 days out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Coastalwx. I need you to be my personal met for Caroga Lake, NY for this storm. Thankies. This is the one time I'm actually rooting for a north tend. I am betraying my mid Atlantic brethren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Coastalwx. I need you to be my personal met for Caroga Lake, NY for this storm. Thankies. This is the one time I'm actually rooting for a north tend. I am betraying my mid Atlantic brethren. Your a bad man and i hope it stays supressed enough that we get 8" and you get the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Your a bad man and i hope it stays supressed enough that we get 8" and you get the shaft. You weren't supposed to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I like to kayak on Canada Lake ..next door to Caroga. It's only about 40 miles nw of me. Nice little hike/snow shoe right near there is Kane Mountain with a firetower (that you can climb for good views) and little cabin on top, if you're into that kind of thing. Re: the storm... You probably want to look for p-type issues up to NYC and even into SNE, in order for the southern Dacks to be in the jackpot. If places like BOS are in the jackpot more often than not we are more fringed. Coastalwx. I need you to be my personal met for Caroga Lake, NY for this storm. Thankies. This is the one time I'm actually rooting for a north tend. I am betraying my mid Atlantic brethren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Coastalwx. I need you to be my personal met for Caroga Lake, NY for this storm. Thankies. This is the one time I'm actually rooting for a north tend. I am betraying my mid Atlantic brethren. Ask and ye shall receive lol. Its still way too early but I'm not worried about suppression, well at least here. I'll keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS may be nice for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS may be nice for us. Perfect track for SNE actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Perfect track for SNE actually. Thank God the airmass is so chilly. Shades of 2007 and 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 can we lock the gfs!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yes plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 can we lock the gfs!? Progressive storm, but probably a 6-8 hr. period of healthy snows dropping 5-8" Probably one of those storms where Tim Kelly goes..."It's a 6-8 hour event with 1/hr snows...so 6-8"" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Despite slightly different solutions each time...gfs has found ways to have it snow on each of its last 8 runs, feel pretty good about this storm. It's down to about 120 hours away now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS just keeps me all snow and .5" or so of liquid-a nice 5-7" of wet, basebuilding snow, lock it please! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Solid event on the GFS region wide. General 0.5" region wide with areas along the s coast, cc and islands hitting 0.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Progressive storm, but probably a 6-8 hr. period of healthy snows dropping 5-8" Probably one of those storms where Tim Kelly goes..."It's a 6-8 hour event with 1/hr snows...so 6-8"" this exactly...he loves that simple math stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 One aspect that keeps leaping out at me through the days and weeks, and in between specific events (when and where life and times in Meteorology really takes place) is that the flow is just so fast, and can not seem to slow down for any reason. This is weird. There's been two speeds this year: fast, and a bit faster whenever the mass field tries to lower heights in the SE. The PNA spiking did take place as was/is discussed in the thread covering the 20th-24th; but it arrived and is on-going with a muted character over the impressive earlier signal some 7 to 10 days ago. Still, and probably in response to subtle, related aspects in the connective tissue between the Pacific and North American domains, we see the entire SPV / Long Wave structure over SE Canada pressing S over the next 3 or so day; enters a period of "a bit faster", than mere fast. Anyway, point is, fast doesn't at any point lend well to cyclogenesis. The reasons for that are complex. I'll try to simplify: 1) look at the wind max velocity associated with your average run-of-the-mill short wave. 60, 70, 80 ....on upwards to 110 knots or even faster for the stronger impulses. The flow everywhere is already matching those velocities. Some of this is over the heads of the average user [perhaps] but the immediate implication is that short waves get "lost" in the streams. Another way to say it is, "absorption". The shortwave enters the careening hyper flow and it no longer has sufficient differentials to drive/force the cyclone model's parameters. What are the parameters? Restoring force is everything; when the short wave wind max rides over the top it cause upward vertical motion - this triggers warm conveyor jets and cold conveyor jets to organize in such a way as to move mass into the region under the upward moving air motion. Mass is always conserved. In understanding that basic model it becomes easy to understand why a 90 knot jet max in a short wave means nothing to a flow that is already humming along at 70 or 80 knots as its most restful state. The resulting differential of a mere 10 or 20 knots is not enough (it could be calculated what the necessary differential is...) 2) the way to overcome 1) is naturally to have the short wave that is a big giant pig ... like, in the upper tier of what Terran atmospheric physics can create, 110+ knot range or more. But therein is another ...more emergent problem: It takes time for the restoring forces to activate across the horizontal and vertical conterminous of the atmosphere. Think of the cyclogenesizing region of space as a box, moving along in the flow. The flow is moving very fast, so the box does not situated very long in any given region. You can have very rapid cyclogenesis, however, it is less likely that parameters will be met that could produce that result when the ambient flow is very fast, because short waves of the upper power ilk are simply less common. That is why cyclones deepening in very fast flows are usually weak to midland in intensity. If you are a storm enthusiast, you get a pedestrian system moving past you at the speed of light - good luck. Not to confuse threads ... but the deal for Tuesday is of this variety. There are impulse dynamics in the flow that are just barely enough differentiating to [probably] induce some kind of NJ Model deepener, but the models are trying to displace it ENE out into the Atlantic because of all that frantic speed in the flow. The Norlan aspect of that is fascinating - it's almost like a standing wave in the low level pressure pattern, resulting from a system moving too fast to develop. So, the storm at the end of the weak developing in a flow that is merely fast as opposed to a bit faster. The S/W moves from MT to off the upper MA in 36 hours flat. The flat wave structure to the surface synopsis is understandable, in and out in 6-9 hours! Here's a leap, ...but interesting: maybe the plaguing fast flow is a result of a cold polar cycle taking place amid a background Global Warming; such that the mean gradient between the 60th and 30th parallels is anomalously large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Or sum up Tip's insane scientist style post regarding why you can't have good cyclogenesis with it has less time to intensify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z Euro pretty amped up for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Decent region wide hit for most here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah classic SWFE. And as we mentioned, suppression isn't the worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah classic SWFE. And as we mentioned, suppression isn't the worry. Yeah, No blocking, That is a great track for a lot of folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like I briefly taint, but not bad..good thump. Hopefully it doesn't come further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Could there be some mixing around say.., Dobbs Ferry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Or sum up Tip's insane scientist style post regarding why you can't have good cyclogenesis with it has less time to intensify... Ha ha... yeah, well... I can tone it down and talk in simple non-informed terms just as good as anybody, but some people might actually like to know "why" a faster flow is detrimental. Sometimes I get the vibe that people just want to be served and fed and entertained, when I think if they understood more about the science behind why x,y,z happened or a,b,c failed to, that might go miles toward them serving, feeding, and entertaining them selves, as opposed to being reliant on others - which is a recipe for disappointment. but ... you can't penetrate folks' minds with logic if there is no willingness to receive the message ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Ask and ye shall receive lol. Its still way too early but I'm not worried about suppression, well at least here. I'll keep an eye on it. You have failed me! Can't see the euro. What's doing at Caroga Lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like I briefly taint, but not bad..good thump. Hopefully it doesn't come further north. Would be one of those fun storms where we start off in the single digits and snow and then have to worry about pingers and a dry slot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 to underscore the points above... the main v-max goes from eastern MT to almost BUF, NY in 24 hours. 36 hours to go from Rockies lee-side cyclogen to off the Maine coast! finger snap pattern. i doubt an event entry of -12C at 850 and at least some modest llv +PP is a problem with that much system translation speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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