Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 So long as it's not foggy and raining on Christmas Eve / Day I could care less if it snow's around here or not. Grumpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 51 and sunny, Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Well if you are looking for positives aside from the 12z GFS suite...18z NAM and SREfs are pretty far south with the ULL at the end of their runs...pretty far out for those models, but who knows. Better than showing it up in Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Well if you are looking for positives aside from the 12z GFS suite...18z NAM and SREfs are pretty far south with the ULL at the end of their runs...pretty far out for those models, but who knows. Better than showing it up in Montreal. I think its pretty much a lock that most people see some flakes falling this weekend at one time or another, and thats better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Worst weather pattern ever? Mild damp and foggy...ho f'ing ho. 18z GFS nudged back north towards the other models. Epic snow flurries this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Rub it in photo of the year ... it "could" be like this - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Worst weather pattern ever? Mild damp and foggy...ho f'ing ho. 18z GFS nudged back north towards the other models. Epic snow flurries this weekend. 18z GFS would still be some semi-organized snow over SNE...its not quite as good as 12z, but plenty good enough for widespread snow showers and maybe even some steadier bands mixed in. It prints out between a tenth and 0.15" of qpf while that ULL goes overhead. I'd want to see the Euro come south a bit though before getting any hopes up for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 18z GFS hints at that clipper scenario too for Xmas Eve night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Meh, if it doesn't work out, it's more normal not to so everyone would have to nod to things being what they should be. If you live up N you may have more room to complain based on averages - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The GFS starts off briefly wintry on Friday here and for NNE. The BL is a little iffy imby (+1 to 2C), but it has been trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 This initially looks like a dramatic set up actually ... with a multi-facet continental mauler. You got big ice, heavy snow and Gulf Coastal twisters implicated here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 i do seriously think that's coming. i could very well be wrong of course and as eduggdouches so adeptly pointed out the other day, long range stuff is not my strength. but i think the axis is shifting east and the antecedent air masses will be far improved so even cutters will be different going forward than what we've seen in the last two to three weeks...by that i mean there should be better chances for front end snows and perhaps secondary genesis south of NE. Stick to the analysis and arguments, not the name calling. Why is this anything more than speculation; guessing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Stick to the analysis and arguments, not the name calling. Why is this anything more than speculation; guessing? What did you do the other day that got everyone to flip out? lol The GFS gives me some nice backside snow Friday-Saturday. We all know how that usually works out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 i do seriously think that's coming. i could very well be wrong of course and as eduggdouches so adeptly pointed out the other day, long range stuff is not my strength. but i think the axis is shifting east and the antecedent air masses will be far improved so even cutters will be different going forward than what we've seen in the last two to three weeks...by that i mean there should be better chances for front end snows and perhaps secondary genesis south of NE. How many times have you expressed a similar sentiment this year? What makes this time any different? The best argument I can see right now is that climo is steadily moving in our favor. I hope there will be a stronger case to be made in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 240 hr gfs...flooding rains lol. Whether we get a white Christmas or not this run wipes it away in style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Rub it in photo of the year ... it "could" be like this - Awesome...I've seen two beautiful sun pillars at sunrise over the past ten days. Always looks great over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Meh, if it doesn't work out, it's more normal not to so everyone would have to nod to things being what they should be. If you live up N you may have more room to complain based on averages - Looks right...I expect a white Xmas and will probably have it. Still 3" of snow on the ground with like an inch plus of QPF that'll freeze into a block of ice. Snow to rain Friday and then CT Blizz style days and days of snow from NW flow this weekend till Xmas I still think someone gets lucky with some LE leftovers east of the Berks...plus upslope regions down to Litchfield County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 How many times have you expressed a similar sentiment this year? What makes this time any different? The best argument I can see right now is that climo is steadily moving in our favor. I hope there will be a stronger case to be made in the coming days. I don't think I've expressed this particular sentiment yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 240 hr gfs...flooding rains lol. Whether we get a white Christmas or not this run wipes it away in style. That's the one that ultimately changes things for the first week of January. The thing is I don't know how long it lasts and am not sold it goes on and on vs we just get more real shots. But only 2 more of these to go through.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I don't think I've expressed this particular sentiment yet I'll make you a deal though...if I'm right I stay on the forum and you get to leave...but if I'm wrong you leave and I have to stay on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'll make you a deal though...if I'm right I stay on the forum and you get to leave...but if I'm wrong you leave and I have to stay on the board lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 240 hr gfs...flooding rains lol. Whether we get a white Christmas or not this run wipes it away in style. December Rains suck pretty bad, but I'd rather be punched in the bag 20 times than get flooding rains that close to January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 12z and 00z CMC runs showed an arctic frontal passage possible for the day of Christmas or day after Christmas timeframe. I'm liking the CMC more than the EURO, as GFS heads towards it along the GOM. THis is multi faceted storm system and could bring blizzard conditions to someone. I think as for track, it tracks out of the GOM into the eastern GL transfers energy to off the VA Capes and hits the BM track heading NEward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 When did edduggs become such a d*ckwad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That's the one that ultimately changes things for the first week of January. The thing is I don't know how long it lasts and am not sold it goes on and on vs we just get more real shots. But only 2 more of these to go through.... Yikes-we're now looking at early Jan for the change---just keeps getting further and further out--soon the lawn thread will be up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 When did edduggs become such a d*ckwad? i always thought he was a met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Seems some folks have not lived in SNE very long. The late 90s were not that long ago. But if you believe model progs we flip the switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yikes-we're now looking at early Jan for the change---just keeps getting further and further out--soon the lawn thread will be up! That's my take on it, many others thing it comes in a few days/week. I think we'll probably have to clear that 2nd storm although if there's one that may flip colder as the atmosphere changes it's that one. Seems some folks have not lived in SNE very long. The late 90s were not that long ago. But if you believe model progs we flip the switch. I'll come shovel your driveway into those neat postcard etched snowbanks that Kevin likes while singing "Winter Wonderland" and "Sleigh Ride" if it snows between now and 1/1 if it flips before then. January should be a different story, probably right from the getgo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 gfs continues the trend of flurries, snowshowers and light snow for saturday:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Boy--the 00z GFS looks to come pretty close to letting the secondary take over before bouncing back to the primary with the end result being status quo (I think). Weenie hopes spring eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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