CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The GFS rips the western trough east and tries a weenie miracle Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 LOL, I knew something weird happened because you are more knowledgeable than that. It is wrapping some cold air underneath though at that point. Highly unlikely scenario, lots to watch with this one but hard to beat whats been going on. Hoping we see a 960 run north and change the pattern. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/00/gfs_namer_216_1000_850_thick.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The ensembles try to pull something too, but it looks like the energy waits around for a bigger low down south by 00z 26. Clearly there are huge timing differences in the GFS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The ensembles try to pull something too, but it looks like the energy waits around for a bigger low down south by 00z 26. Clearly there are huge timing differences in the GFS tonight. The OP GFS glues the critical thicknesses right on the NH/MA border again. A more wound up solution I fear would only end up warmer on that day. Let's hope the system after that can produce. GGEM not very interesting with this weekend. Few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Cold air is wrapping under the low at that point. Someone could/would be flipping to snow on the south side of the low I bet. So you weren't too far off your rocker but it's a stinky setup as pictured otherwise. I just totally misread it haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The most stunning part of this warmth is the lack of ice. Are any ponds frozen up north yet? We aren't even close here. I figured by now we would be seeing concrete evidence of change even the layperson could note. Even after the Gfs gale we are left with a gradient strung out west to east. The pattern looks more favorable behind it but is it really? Cold air seems to want to take a glancing blow behind each system without an ability to really dig. Hoping the models are going to have a hard time seeing thru the change and bellwether storm that may bring the change. If not ill admit it I will be full blown weather depressed on NYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The GFS rips the western trough east and tries a weenie miracle Christmas day. Weenie miracle for the Great Lakes region? I don't think the trough is far enough east/south/deep to really have an impact on New England. I'm looking at QPF's right now..maybe NNE could get something. I think phasing has a lot to do with the severity of it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 this pattern is above normal , wet, and annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Weenie miracle for the Great Lakes region? I don't think the trough is far enough east/south/deep to really have an impact on New England. I'm looking at QPF's right now..maybe NNE could get something. I think phasing has a lot to do with the severity of it too. I mean that weak low it had, but verbatim it's more for the GL on the GFS. Euro did send a s/w out underneath us, but it got grinded out to a pulp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 BOX is offering a Secret Santa gift. But the secret is to whom will it be given??? SAT AND SUN... LOW PRES BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND OCCLUDES AND WEAKENS IN NEAR PROXIMITY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH ENOUGH ENERGY ALOFT AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE SYSTEM...A PERIOD OF SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING OVER WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM...SO A TRANSITION TOWARD WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOW PRES MOVEMENT THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHERE THE BEST ACCUMULATION OCCURS. Temps stayed warmer than I had expected last night. 35.6/30, winds gusting over 20mph so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Well well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Well folks..we are going to have a White Christmas..All ye of little faith..believe in the KURO..I have delivered all of you a Christmas miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I have utmost faith in the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro drops accumulating snow this weekend. let's see Scooter disagree with that today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro drops accumulating snow this weekend. let's see Scooter disagree with that today Like yesterday this is mostly upslope stuff except for rogue rotting LES band or two. I have no idea what you are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Of more interest, is the GFS for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Like yesterday this is mostly upslope stuff except for rogue rotting LES band or two. I have no idea what you are looking at. I knew you'd do that.. the entire region sees accumulating light snows this weekend Are you saying that's not happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro drops accumulating snow this weekend. let's see Scooter disagree with that today Let's be careful of how we present the idea of "accumulating". "Measurable" is accumulating--but one can measure very small amounts. Let's be careful in how things are presented lest there are unrealistic expectations. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I knew you'd do that.. the entire region sees accumulating light snows this weekend Are you saying that's not happening? The best way for this to happen is a further south ULL. This looks best for Pete and MPM, but I'm not pinning my hopes on this. Maybe the ground is coated for spots. Whoopee. How often does NW flow workout for us? We need this further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 When a man is starved, a piece of stale bread is so luscious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 The best way for this to happen is a further south ULL. This looks best for Pete and MPM, but I'm not pinning my hopes on this. Maybe the ground is coated for spots. Whoopee. How often does NW flow workout for us? We need this further south. Well then I guess BOX is totally wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I will give one exception that I see. As modeled there is a TROWAL wrapping around towards western CT actually. It is possible that it stays together enough to give areas some very minor accumulations even east of the mtns, but hoping for that means people are truly desperate. Again, I would rather see a further souh ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Well then I guess BOX is totally wrong Well Mike and Pete will get some and maybe even you get your ground whitened. But I don't see widespread stuff right now as modeled. This is a NOWCAST deal if it were to happen. Again to me, whatever the heck the gfs is doing is a bit more interesting, despite it not having much support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 When a man is starved, a piece of stale bread is so luscious. Exactly. This is so weather depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I will give one exception that I see. As modeled there is a TROWAL wrapping around towards western CT actually. It is possible that it stays together enough to give areas some very minor accumulations even easy of the mtns, but hoping for that means people are truly desperate. Again, I would rather see a further souh ULL. Consistent with that, it looks like the forecasts have a pretty good latitudinal gradient wrt snow. BOX is offering at least NW Mass (not sure of further east) 50% snow showers Friday night and Saturday. Albany's offering 60% for Friday night/Saturday.for northern Berkshire, but only 30% for southern Berkshire. Down in CT, it looks like BOX is posting 40% snow showers Friday night and cloudy Saturday. For Litchfifeld, ALY's offering 30% Friday night, mostly cloudy Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Exactly. This is so weather depressing. No it isn't. Winter arrives with force Friday night. Snow flys this weekend and we've got the snow/ice bomb next week..Even for the coast. Man up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 No it isn't. Winter arrives with force Friday night. Snow flys this weekend and we've got the snow/ice bomb next week..Even for the coast. Man up One of these times these statements about "winter arriving" will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 One of these times these statements about "winter arriving" will be right. It's possible Saturday morning has some snow showers that drop a coating to an inch in spots as they head east, but people know the drill away from the mtns. It's more luck than anything. Hopefully a renegade band helps him out, he needs it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 One of these times these statements about "winter arriving" will be right. He and JB have a winter sixth sense, they see dead winter patterns everywhere. We have our shot at change with the bookend storm to the pattern pre NYE. Hopefully it happens. Is it too much to ask to be able to skate with the kids this year outside? I'm with huggies on the weekend event. We need the ULL out underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 He and JB have a winter sixth sense, they see dead winter patterns everywhere. We have our shot at change with the bookend storm to the pattern pre NYE. Hopefully it happens. Is it too much to ask to be able to skate with the kids this year outside? I'm with huggies on the weekend event. We need the ULL out underneath us. Someone will probably get into a narrow band and AWTs will be thrown around I'm sure, but these things aren't worth getting high hopes for. Many of us will see flakes flying around I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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