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Can we salvage a White Christmas in SNE?


Damage In Tolland

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He agreed with your first posts yesterday...saying that a ULL far eniugh south or even a potent little shortwave rounding the base of it could give us a shot...but its not a good chance.

Your disagreement came when you stated the 00z Euro last night had snow for us. Outside of a couple weenie flurries, it did not show that. ULL was too far north on the Euro.

Euro hinted at it with higher rh. You see that you automatically think qpf
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But it also means possible precip

Probably just some flurries from leftover broken LES snowshowers. It wouldn't be enough to give us a white Christmas on the Euro. You need lift to go with the high RH...high RH alone does not give us accumulating snow...and the Euro synoptics do not provide any lift for us unless you are on the west slopes of the mountains like where Mitch is in Lenox where orographics provide the lift.

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Hate to say it, Jerry... but you feel 93-94 just about every winter.

It's as if 93-94 has replaced "fat squirrels" in your lexicon.

I don't think he felt it last year, lol. Though I'm sure he mentioned it when we started off slow. He was really feeling it in 2010-2011, but we never were able to regain the magic in late Feb and early March like 1994 did.

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GGEM was about the same not sure what I was looking at earlier. ULL is to our north.

You were't seeing things. The GGEM tracked the h5 cutoff further south than its previous runs, actually very similar to the GFS through day 3.5. But it diverged thereafter with the GGEM sliding up into NNE and the GFS sinking south to near LI.

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On my phone so I can't see soundings, but the GFS looks a little interesting here to start on Friday.

Looks like snow to rain. Warm surface cooling with height. The rock pile would amass dumpage. Might not change over.

I'm not sure I buy the idea of minimal surface cold, but with a stacked low way west it could be right. That brings warmth in at all levels relatively evenly.

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Looks like snow to rain. Warm surface cooling with height. The rock pile would amass dumpage. Might not change over.

I'm not sure I buy the idea of minimal surface cold, but with a stacked low way west it could be right. That brings warmth in at all levels relatively evenly.

Probably .1" per 1k elevation before changeover.

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Man that 12z GFS looks sweet.... that would be days and days of snow in the upslope regions after a snow to rain to snow for the synoptic event.

Feeling good about a white X-Mas... still 3" on the ground at home here now and its 34F. Dodged a bullet today.

High peaks look to get hammered. 1-2' by early next week?

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