Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Since when do we get 1-3" of snow from LES? It doesn't have anything more than a few SHSN. Who said 1-3? The signal is there for widespread ground whitening snow showers and squalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Dinglebury has spoken. He also said BOS didn't get advisory level snow in February 2011. They actually had 2 advisory level events....10.4" on Feb 1-2 and then 5.3" on Feb 27, 2011. Not that I would want to let facts get in the way of some good whining. As for Snow within the next 7 days...not look good for enough for a white Christmas, but we'll have to watch possible inverted trough. Its not there verbatim right now though on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Who said 1-3? The signal is there got widespread ground whitening snow showers and squalls If it makes you feel better. I don't see anything like that unless you somehow luck out in a dying LES band or something fluky. You are going to want a more inv trough look for snow to pivot down from Maine instead. That looks like it may not happen. It's gotten to the point where we are hoping for LES snow squalls. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 If it makes you feel better. I don't see anything like that unless you somehow luck out in a dying LES band or something fluky. You are going to want a more inv trough look for snow to pivot down from Maine instead. That looks like it may not happen. It's gotten to the point where we are hoping for LES snow squalls. Good luck with that. You can try and bring other folks down, but I remain optimistic for widespread light snows this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 You can try and bring other folks down, but I remain optimistic for widespread light snows this weekend Well be careful with weenie goggles because that's what got you in trouble with your partial three mile island meltdown the other day. Like I said, hope for a more inv trough look to get snow. Otherwise it doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Looking at the bb at this point in December 2010 we had similar whining. I'm feeling good today.....liking the EPO and possible similarities to my favorite winter evolution....and a hint....it is not 2010-11 although that was a good one. '93-'94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I forget what year it was, had to be mid 80s because the kids were very young. It had rained the morning of Christmas eve as southerly flow sent a slug of moisture in from a cut off cold ULL to our west. Bummer but being Christmas with little kids the weather was far secondary and the joy and festivities continued unabated. We all gathered at my Moms house for the celebration, eating downstairs in the finished basement. In a scene right out of White Christmas my niece came down stairs and loudly proclaimed it is snowing. Old, young and the slightly inebriated rushed up the stairs as one. The ULL had slid overhead and had squeezed out parachutes laying down an inch or so. That single inch is etched in my mind forever, by far my favorite Christmas snow. The magic of frozen water was brought home to me that night. So many of my Aunts and relatives had told me how much they hated snow, that night was not one of them. Perhaps with a little luck someone in SNE will get parked under a squall and get that feeling. I know a lot of us could use the rush of that good feeling in our hearts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 '93-'94 Yes. I'm starting to feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 1 word answer for the majority of us no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 1 word answer for the majority of us no. I try to tell heem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Amazing that some preach constantly not to believe 6 day progs but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Amazing that some preach constantly not to believe 6 day progs but... Its all modelology with them. There's no meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Amazing that some preach constantly not to believe 6 day progs but... Its a pretty safe bet when no storm is progged in the area at day 6....as far as ULL queefs, and inverted trough nonsense, I'd bet against that on day 1, never mind day 6. A white xmas is unlikely, not impossible...all anyone said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 gfs continues the trend of allowing the ULL to slide further south, looks like light snows/snowshowers this weekend which in this pattern is a full on WIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 12z GFS is a good demonstration fo how we want the ULL to behave this weekend to try and get some accumulating snow. It deepens it over SE NY and then CT and spawns a sfc reflection SE of Block Island...that would probably give a lot of snow showers or even periods of steadier snow to SNE. Not a major storm or anything as occlusion has occurred to dynamics are weak, but if you are looking for a White Christmas, this would probably do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 gfs continues the trend of allowing the ULL to slide further south, looks like light snows/snowshowers this weekend which in this pattern is a full on WIN GFS has between a .1 and a sliver of .25 over the lower cape in a 24 hour period. If the ULL track is real and it comes out under us, we'll all have snow this weekend falling from the sky in the eastern 3/4 of SNE. 500/700/850mb lows track out just under/over us. Could we finally be catching a break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 12z GFS is a good demonstration fo how we want the ULL to behave this weekend to try and get some accumulating snow. It deepens it over SE NY and then CT and spawns a sfc reflection SE of Block Island...that would probably give a lot of snow showers or even periods of steadier snow to SNE. Not a major storm or anything as occlusion has occurred to dynamics are weak, but if you are looking for a White Christmas, this would probably do the trick. Yep. It would be really, really nice if one finally broke for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS says miracles can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Its all modelology with them. There's no meteorology What a bonehead statement. The meteorology was there displaying scenarios where we could have a white Christmas. Your scenario of deep NW flow would be awful. Get the ULL south and maybe an inv trough signature like we said, and then you can grab something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Can 12/25 offer more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 12z GFS is a good demonstration fo how we want the ULL to behave this weekend to try and get some accumulating snow. It deepens it over SE NY and then CT and spawns a sfc reflection SE of Block Island...that would probably give a lot of snow showers or even periods of steadier snow to SNE. Not a major storm or anything as occlusion has occurred to dynamics are weak, but if you are looking for a White Christmas, this would probably do the trick. Yeah the track at 500mb looks better. It would feel wintry on Sat, especially for the higher spots that stay below freezing. A piece of trailing energy over Quebec Province preceeding the storm keeps heights lower from Quebec through Maine into the Maritimes and might lock in a longer period of low level cold. That could spell a few hours of frozen or freezing precip, esp for C and NNE, before the front swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 12z GFS is a good demonstration fo how we want the ULL to behave this weekend to try and get some accumulating snow. It deepens it over SE NY and then CT and spawns a sfc reflection SE of Block Island...that would probably give a lot of snow showers or even periods of steadier snow to SNE. Not a major storm or anything as occlusion has occurred to dynamics are weak, but if you are looking for a White Christmas, this would probably do the trick. That is the exact scenario I discussed this morning , and wax told I was on 3 mile island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That is the exact scenario I discussed this morning , and wax told I was on 3 mile island You were, with your LES faux bands of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 This is the Euro which you can see why it would not be favorable. note the ULL position. Now look at the GFS. As you can see..this is better for SHSN or even light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 This is the Euro which you can see why it would not be favorable. note the ULL position. Now look at the GFS. As you can see..this is better for SHSN or even light snows. GGEM is going to be further south with the ULL this run too. I can't tell how much yet can only see 72 but it's a lot further south. Miracle on Ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 KURO FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Can 12/25 offer more snow? That shortwave coming in from the west gets crushed by the NW flow from the ULL pulling to the northeast of us...but give it just a smidge more room and it would be a clipper like system for 12/25. Probably flurries verbatim as the vortmax goes over us. That's two shots at snow on or before 12/25. Neither has big potential, but only a couple inches of fluff would go a long way to increase the holiday spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 You were, with your LES faux bands of snow. See my very first post in this thread when I started it yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 See my very first post in this thread when I started it yesterday. That's nice, but I'm referring to your incorrect analysis of the euro this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 See my very first post in this thread when I started it yesterday. He agreed with your first posts yesterday...saying that a ULL far eniugh south or even a potent little shortwave rounding the base of it could give us a shot...but its not a good chance. Your disagreement came when you stated the 00z Euro last night had snow for us. Outside of a couple weenie flurries, it did not show that. ULL was too far north on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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