CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Thanks Scott. It looked like maybe GOAK ridge near the end of the Euro which of course is susceptible to large swings. Maybe having a -NAO will help mitigate the torch some too. I should have also specified that I was referring to the ensembles. They do have a -NAO, but it doesn't seem to want to stay stationary for too long. It is possible it may be enough for a CAD signal down the road, but that doesn't mean much here this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Tropical rains with thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Tropical rains with thunder Nice light show with bigtime booms here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Moving right along ... The last several cycles of GFS and Euro operational runs have been flagging some kind of cold climo system for the late middle or early extended range. The signal is not overwhelming, but there is some teleconnector support in that the NAO remains fairly heavily depressed, and the PNA (according to both agencies) will rise to a little over neutral SD. Again, not overwhelming, but having trans-continental waves tending to bottom out in the OV in route to the MA is not a bad fit just the same; therefore, gives a nod to these operational suggestions. Can't insert files from here, and this interface doesn't recognize clip-board pasting; perhaps later this evening unless someone else want to chime in and provide. Also, I am noticing a timing that might bring some significant cold nearing the end of the month - perhaps more later. Oh - sorry. Didn't realize. sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 when do WSW go up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 00z GFS trying to form a miller B for you guys next Tues-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 00z GFS trying to form a miller B for you guys next Tues-Wed. Lol, was just looking at that. Probably one of those fantasy day 6-7 GFS solutions but we can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Definitely something to watch for someone in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Definitely something to watch for someone in NE. What a cold euro run. It's going to feel like -20 deps after what we've been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 What a cold euro run. It's going to feel like -20 deps after what we've been in. Yeah the ensembles are warmer but did cool off.....maybe the -NAO can try to help. Models try to warm afterwards, but still somewhat of a ridge near Greenland to perhaps try and fight off some of it. Still a big -PNA in the extended which wants to keep the east warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Even though it could be a 38F rain, Kevin will claim snow in 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Definitely something to watch for someone in NE. The four globals all have a hint of a coastal off the Cape. Another 7 days of model watching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 6z GFS. Phasing little early. Low tracks inland over SE PA at 174hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 The four globals all have a hint of a coastal off the Cape. Another 7 days of model watching? It's just nice to see coastals, even if its a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 P n c has my first mention of snow since...Morch? 20% on Fri night of rain/snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 It's just nice to see coastals, even if its a cold rain. 6-9". Lollis to 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 6-9". Lollis to 12" A conservative first estimate. Awaiting the Rev's assessment of the impending situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Drove from Bedford home last night around 8. One of the better tstorms of the year nailed me on 128. Scary driving but spectacular lightning nonetheless. Euro looks cold. No big vortex in ak on ensembles. Pattern evolving but we must be patient. For me that's fine because realistic snow chances are still a month away typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Drove from Bedford home last night around 8. One of the better tstorms of the year nailed me in 128. Scary driving but spectacular lightning nonetheless. Euro looks cold. No big vortex in ak on ensembles. Pattern evolving but we must be patient. For me that's fine because mreqlistic snow chances are still a month away typically. We need to get ridging further east from Kamchatka area because that's teleconnecting to a -PNA in the long range beyond the euro op. But for now, I won't complain in early November. It probably would spread out to a more gradient pattern in the winter anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Looks like the hills get their first snowfall early next week. Surprised Will's not posting on this.. Must still be in tropical mode. No sign of warmup thru the next 2 weeks with well below normal..Early winter FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 FTW .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Looks like the hills get their first snowfall early next week. Surprised Will's not posting on this.. Must still be in tropical mode. No sign of warmup thru the next 2 weeks with well below normal..Early winter FTW Oh Blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Cfs2 says 1993-94 comes knock in'. If 1993-94 comes knock in', the sne forum be rockin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Greenfiled had 8 sunny days in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Does the -PNA relax in the 11-15 day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Does the -PNA relax in the 11-15 day? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Nope. I prefer a neg EPO/NAO even if PNA is neg. better for snow chances here in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 I prefer a neg EPO/NAO even if PNA is neg. better for snow chances here in winter. It's not a -EPO yet...we need to get the ridge east to get the good stuff. There isn't anything really wrong with this pattern now to cool off Canada, given wavelengths can still be short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Drove from Bedford home last night around 8. One of the better tstorms of the year nailed me on 128. Scary driving but spectacular lightning nonetheless. Euro looks cold. No big vortex in ak on ensembles. Pattern evolving but we must be patient. For me that's fine because realistic snow chances are still a month away typically. Do you work out of the Bedford VA at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Cold here...45 right now. BDR to finish October +3 or so....streak continues....let's hope this is the end though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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