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12/19-12/20 threat

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

Looks like we are about to get some serious payback over the next week or so. Looks like Mother Nature is going to pay off us very well for our patience.

I know people are pumped but I still think it is way too early for celebrating.. we aren't even in the Nam range for the storm yet.. I think we need to calm down until at least the 00z runs imo

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

You know as I get older I really just enjoy the whole majesty and all encompassing nature of a really big Noreaster. It isn't so important that I get the most - just to be in on the party. :) I may well never top my greatest snowfalls after 40 years of storms since I was a little kid so it isn't the primary motivator anymore. I'm cool with CT getting the most.

Maybe 6-10 or so perhaps a foot if it worked out.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

Lol Nate you have a bit of a mean streak. After last season, you should be wishing he cashes in too. As it is, looks like we'll get close to a repeat of 12/19 from last year-- hopefully with a more expansive heavy snow shield so we can share the fun!

I'm with Zucker here. Jackpot everytime. I'd expect others to feel the same way.

Need Euro to tick east a short hair or two. Not the final solution displayed here, but it's a l-l-l-l-l-lock that somebody here gets buried.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

well...for the sake of those in E areas...i hope it goes east. LOL.

for those out west...hope it holds. :lol:

I was actually hoping you could get a crushing hit while I could get a little frontogenetic snow (like 3-5"), but there's no controlling Mother Nature. This is a tough pill for you considering the trends. I feel for you man. We get plenty of snow up here so I don't mind sharing the wealth...even if I've had 0 snow cover so far. :(
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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

You know as I get older I really just enjoy the whole majesty and all encompassing nature of a really big Noreaster. It isn't so important that I get the most - just to be in on the party. :) I may well never top my greatest snowfalls after 40 years of storms since I was a little kid so it isn't the primary motivator anymore. I'm cool with CT getting the most.

yeah i totally feel the same way and im not as old as you Logan! :P

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

Hate to say it but yeah, We could use a 50-75 mi shift back east, Hopefully this was the furthest west solution for the euro......

IMO we haven't seen a solution that brings it into the coast yet even with the gfs back in day 8.. so we won't

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Lol Nate you have a bit of a mean streak. After last season, you should be wishing he cashes in too. As it is, looks like we'll get close to a repeat of 12/19 from last year-- hopefully with a more expansive heavy snow shield so we can share the fun!

I'm just kidding dude...it's not about competing for the highest snow totals but just enjoying the evolution of the storm and the deep snowpack it gives us to play in. But 12/19 is like UGH, only had 8" when forecasts were calling for 12-16" in southern Westchester. This is a much better looking system for NYC metro if the ECM verifies...QPF is near 2" compared to around 1" that we got during the 12/19 storm, or even less in the immediate Hudson Valley away from the mega-band in LI. That's pretty much a dream track although 50 miles west would probably be even better for Central Park and the NW suburbs. Pretty much amazing on all accounts.

You know as I get older I really just enjoy the whole majesty and all encompassing nature of a really big Noreaster.

There's no other feeling in life like that of a big Nor'easter....the quiet of the landscape, the shut-down of the East Coast's excessively bustling cities, the trees creaking in the strong north winds, the snow spiraling down for endless hours. These types of storms are just so incredible to watch, and I've been unbelievably lucky to experience so many from XMAS 2002 to the Snowicane of 2010. Really an incredible stretch. If we get thig big storm on the ECM followed by a smaller event at Day 6, that's just magical. I'd reach my seasonal snowfall total by Christmas, Rick.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I know people are pumped but I still think it is way too early for celebrating.. we aren't even in the Nam range for the storm yet.. I think we need to calm down until at least the 00z runs imo

I don't think anyone is really celebrating, everyone is just really excited and we have reason to be. To see the Euro/GFS being in fairly good agreement right now is an excellent sign, to see virtually all the models (Euro/GGEM/Ukie) all shift westward since the 0z euro last night is a great sign as well. We've seen some great improvements in the northern stream and southern stream and it's really hard to see the models flipping back now.

I even read the Canadian looks good fwiw.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I was actually hoping you could get a crushing hit while I could get a little frontogenetic snow (like 3-5"), but there's no controlling Mother Nature. This is a tough pill for you considering the trends. I feel for you man. We get plenty of snow up here so I don't mind sharing the wealth...even if I've had 0 snow cover so far. :(

2m Temps at worst is 30's H85 we get to -0c breifly before then -4 -8c for the most part..........

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HinghamBoss

HinghamBoss

Posted
Posted

Well to me...verbatim off of the Euro...I get heavy snow followed by mix or even rain and back to pretty decent snow as the low pulls back away. But at least we'll stop at 297 days.

I'd take a nice 8-12 incher in Cambridge...if I'm going to shiver while the car warms up, I'd enjoy some snow to go with it.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

I don't think anyone is really celebrating, everyone is just really excited and we have reason to be. To see the Euro/GFS being in fairly good agreement right now is an excellent sign, to see virtually all the models (Euro/GGEM/Ukie) all shift westward since the 0z euro last night is a great sign as well. We've seen some great improvements in the northern stream and southern stream and it's really hard to see the models flipping back now.

I even read the Canadian looks good fwiw.

Well the question is whether all the relevant shortwaves been adquately sampled...if they have then I wouldn't think we would see huge shifts.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I was actually hoping you could get a crushing hit while I could get a little frontogenetic snow (like 3-5"), but there's no controlling Mother Nature. This is a tough pill for you considering the trends. I feel for you man. We get plenty of snow up here so I don't mind sharing the wealth...even if I've had 0 snow cover so far. :(

better to have it shift west now than 12 hours out. LOL.

hopefully it'll shift east some to at least give a better shot at some front end snows. not too favorable a spot to have a SLP center located at BOS/PVD longitude though.

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tson96

tson96

Posted
Posted

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010

...INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM...

...CONTINUED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST...

EXTREME HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK TO RETROGRADE TO NCENTRAL CANADA

LOCKING IN TROFS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLC MID TO LATE

PERIOD. PRIOR TO THAT FAST ZONAL PAC FLOW CONTS TO DRIVE INTO THE

WEST AND EASTERN THRU THE PLAINS WITH A FIRST RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED

SHORTWAVE COMING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND ROTATING NWD

WITH A DEEP OFF SHORE STORM FOLLOWED BY BRIEFLY ZONAL FLOW AGAIN

WITH EMBEDDED WAEKER SHORTWAVES COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE

EAST.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BLENDED THE 00Z UKMET WITH THE 00Z ECMWF

ENS MEAN DAYS 3 TO 5.

THIS KEPT UP A WIND AND COASTAL SNOW THREAT ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND

COAST DAYS 4-5 LATE SUN INTO TUES. OPERATIONAL RUNS OF 00Z ECMWF

AND GFS HAVE REVERSED SOLUTIONS SINCE YTDAS 12Z RUNS WITH THE N

ATLC LOW. LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST OF LAST 4 RUNS OF BOTH GFS AND

ECMWF PREFERRED KEEPING THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE 00Z OP ECMWF

CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN AND EASILY CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT

COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

12Z GFS HAS SWITCHED BACK TO A DEEPER MUCH CLOSER IN LOW CLOSE TO

YTDAS 12Z GFS AND CURRENT 00Z ECMWF TAKING A 980 MB OFF CAPE COD.

THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS YTDAS HPC PROGS AND THINKING AS MODELS BEGIN

TO CONVERGE ON A MORE AGREED UPON SOLUTION WITH GOOD HPC FORECAST

CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. 12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER

OFF WHILE THE OP CMC HAS A 976 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK

AT 40/70 WHILE ECMWF HAS ITS 975 MB LOW NEAR BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.

NAVY NOGAPS ALSO DEEP AND CLOSE IN TO CAPE COD. GFS ENS MEANS A

BIT EAST BUT MEAN PCPN SHOWING A SIG PCPN EVENT OVER COASTAL MA.

AFTN PROGS WILL ADJUST SLIGHTLY WEST HAVING A DEEP LOW NEAR THE

NORTHEAST BENCHMARK. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION WITH

INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDNECE.

RAPID DEEPENING INDICATED BY 12Z GFS/CMC/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS

FOLLOWS DYNAMICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY DUE

TO THE DE STABILIZATION OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS FROM THE

RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK MEETING. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A

SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST

AND ESPECIALLY A HEAVY SNOW THREAT FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. SOME

ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE FROM THIS MORNINGS PRELIMS

WITH AFTN UPDATED PROGS INCLUDING OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND 12Z CMC.

HIGH WIND AND SNOW THREAT NEW ENG COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

NEXT CLIPPER TYPE OF LOW ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD IN ITS TRACK THAN GFS

TO COME THRU THE SRN APPLCHNS AND OFF NC COAST TUES. BLEND OF

GFS/ECMWF ENS MADE WHICH ALSO MATCHES A LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST

FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.

HVY/EXCESSIVE PCPN THREAT THRU THE PERIOD CONTINUES OVER ALL OF CA

AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT BASIN AND SRN ROCKIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE

BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEH CONTINUOS ONSHORE MID LEVEL

FLOW AND OCCASSIONAL FRONTS. 5 DAY LIQUID EQUIV TOTALS EXCEED 6-8

INCHES IN THE SIERRAS/COASTAL RANGES AND SAN DIEGO/LOS ANGELES

RANGES GIVING WEEKLY TOTAL POTENTIALS IN EXCESS OF 10-15 INCHES

OVER FAVORBLE TERRAIN.

CLIPPER TYPE LIGHT PCPN EVENT EXPECTED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE

MID ATLC REGION MON INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF

WIDESPREAD BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN THIRD OF CONUS.

ROSENSTEIN

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

better to have it shift west now than 12 hours out. LOL.

hopefully it'll shift east some to at least give a better shot at some front end snows. not too favorable a spot to have a SLP center located at BOS/PVD longitude though.

I don't think you are looking all that bad yet...I am surprised at how much the Euro has trended in two runs but even in that solution you still see snow. Its going to be hard for it to get much further west given the synoptic pattern...unless the models are like half a wavelength off.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I don't think you are looking all that bad yet...I am surprised at how much the Euro has trended in two runs but even in that solution you still see snow. Its going to be hard for it to get much further west given the synoptic pattern...unless the models are like half a wavelength off.

i'm sure there'd be some yeah. i just imagine that the brunt of that EC solution verbatim is a 44F rainstorm down here. the climo on that track for this time of year is ugly for the coastal plain.

no biggie though. we'll see how the next few days shape up.

would be nice to see some HP around to help keep some of the marine air out of the area.

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

I don't think you are looking all that bad yet...I am surprised at how much the Euro has trended in two runs but even in that solution you still see snow. Its going to be hard for it to get much further west given the synoptic pattern...unless the models are like half a wavelength off.

Hi will.. What's your confidence level at for a mecs ?

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