weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 does anyone have a total ECMWF QPF map? are my posts working? They can't be posted b/c I believe you can only get QPF maps from the euro on pay sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Atlantic bomb. At quick glance I see 960 something mb at 192hr. Probably plenty of time/room for a NW trend on that one too. Let's take one at a time though. I've seen this one pop up in the last few days here and there on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Atlantic bomb. At quick glance I see 960 something mb at 192hr. Probably plenty of time/room for a NW trend on that one too. Let's take one at a time though. Agree, the models were flip floping for the last few days. I would wait a couple of more runs before going out for milk and bread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Rearing its head again.... RAPID DEEPENING INDICATED BY 12Z GFS/CMC/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS FOLLOWS DYNAMICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY DUE TO THE DE STABILIZATION OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS FROM THE RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK MEETING. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Guys just off the top of my head keep in mind two things with storms that bomb off the coast in December. - These December bombers seem to love to form those monster mesoscale frontal bands just inland off the coast that can sometimes double, or even triple surrounding totals. - As far as the mixing, heavy snow bands produced can overwhelm the warmer low level temps and bring heavy, wet snow all the way to the surface. I would say with how much this low may be strengthening, this may be a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 They can't be posted b/c I believe you can only get QPF maps from the euro on pay sites. ahh ok, i thought someone posted them yesterday. my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Some have mentioned that once the relevant shortwaves entered the US they would be much better sampled and it appears as if this may be true. Definitely seems right. Euro had a hiccup and corrected for 2 runs now with everything on land. And with Will saying the synoptic pattern should prevent it going much further west I think nearly everyone should feel fantastic right now. Finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Rearing its head again.... RAPID DEEPENING INDICATED BY 12Z GFS/CMC/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS FOLLOWS DYNAMICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY DUE TO THE DE STABILIZATION OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS FROM THE RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK MEETING. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST Thundersnow for Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad River Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 does anyone have a total ECMWF QPF map? are my posts working? Posts are working. No qpf posted yet. Besides, a little early for that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Radio show during TNF.. radio show during TNF!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I don't think you are looking all that bad yet...I am surprised at how much the Euro has trended in two runs but even in that solution you still see snow. Its going to be hard for it to get much further west given the synoptic pattern...unless the models are like half a wavelength off. Will... you mentioned this last night after the 00z Euro. At this point I wouldnt rule anything out.. Snowicane II Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Will be interesting to see if the Euro ensembles are any further west than the GFS ensembles were. I think Scott mentioned the GFS ensembles were still 60-70 miles east of the BM. Given how the Euro was further west than the GFS I would think it's ensembles would be a bit further west than the GFS...unless some members are showing some screwy eastward track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ahh ok, i thought someone posted them yesterday. my bad Some have drawn their own qpf maps based onthe euro output they saw. I don't recall seeing actual EC qpf maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We borrowed some of your snow. Thanks. We love to share up here Phin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hah, Ryan on Twitter... "WOW at some of our latest computer data. 12z Euro is a classic blizzard in southern New England." Even got a WOW out of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hah, Ryan on Twitter... "WOW at some of our latest computer data. 12z Euro is a classic blizzard in southern New England." Even got a WOW out of him. Ryan seems fairly excited about the potential here in CT...when Ryan is excited for CT it's time to start getting excited as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hah, Ryan on Twitter... "WOW at some of our latest computer data. 12z Euro is a classic blizzard in southern New England." Even got a WOW out of him. He'll find something to Eeyore over. At least on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 holy s h i t at the Euro. Verbatim it's about 20" in my backyard with a bit of mixing as it occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Will be interesting to see if the Euro ensembles are any further west than the GFS ensembles were. I think Scott mentioned the GFS ensembles were still 60-70 miles east of the BM. Given how the Euro was further west than the GFS I would think it's ensembles would be a bit further west than the GFS...unless some members are showing some screwy eastward track. I'm curious as to when the mets up here decide to put less weight into the ensembles (minus the SREFs). We're getting into d3-4 now and the resolution of the op models is much higher than their ensemble members. I'm not saying to discount them yet at all because I still think it's too early for that. But where is that threshold for everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hah, Ryan on Twitter... "WOW at some of our latest computer data. 12z Euro is a classic blizzard in southern New England." Even got a WOW out of him. he just texted me the same thing with some nice swear words mixed in lol..He still can't get on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 He'll find something to Eeyore over. At least on this board. Yeah get ready for rain up there sucka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 my post in the main thread going after that troll analog was deleted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm curious as to when the mets up here decide to put less weight into the ensembles (minus the SREFs). We're getting into d3-4 now and the resolution of the op models is much higher than their ensemble members. I'm not saying to discount them yet at all because I still think it's too early for that. But where is that threshold for everyone? Since I never really used the ensembles much until just basically the past few weeks and don't really know much about the use of them at the different time ranges I really don't know when to start putting less stock in them...but it's nice to know that inside of D3-4 that the resolution of the OP models is much higher...wasn't aware of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 he just texted me the same thing with some nice swear words mixed in lol..He still can't get on the board Guess he got on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 my post in the main thread going after that troll analog was deleted lol LOL i saw it..I'm sure he never did though..He's an azz clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 holy s h i t at the Euro. Verbatim it's about 20" in my backyard with a bit of mixing as it occludes. 2'+ for me. LOCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 holy s h i t at the Euro. Verbatim it's about 20" in my backyard with a bit of mixing as it occludes. WE mix on the euro? Where is the warm air coming in? The sfc or in the lower levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is a classic example of the Euro seeing something first losing it..then seeing it again first in the final 3-4 days and then the other models follow. File this one away for next time you all freak out and give up and whine and b**ch about coastal scrapers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 2'+ for me. LOCK Heavy heavy 96 hours out still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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